Monday, August 8, 2016

Fantasy Football Hype

The Preseason has always been a love/hate relationship for fantasy football players and NFL fans in general. It's the least important football of the entire year, but it's also the first football after 6-7 months of NO football. 


Week 3 of the preseason is the dress rehearsal, the week that the starters play the most time (usually the first half and start of the 2nd) and since almost all of them will not play in Week 4 it is the last thing we will remember as we wait out the 10 days between the end of Preseason Week 3 and Opening Weekend.

Fantasy Football players can never wait - and neither can the experts - we waited 3 months for the Draft, then 3 more months for training camp, and now we're waiting through preseason - we are hungry for news, insights, anything that will help them get a great angle on the main course, the long-awaited regular season. 

It takes a Zen master to avoid buying into the Preseason narratives and stars, but every single year- every single year- they are proven moot once the regular season begins.

If Zen will not work, explanation will usually do the trick. Below are the 3 reasons to avoid pre-season hype and the 1 type of hype to buy into.

1) Game Plans. Or lack thereof - real NFL game-plans are not happening. Opposing coaches will often discuss what they are going to try to do at different parts of these games -with each other- so as to match up personnel and game scripts for evaluation. Anybody who says the Giants looked great "running this scheme" are missing the point of preseason. There is no element of surprise or in-game adjustments to what is happening on the field, two incredibly key ingredients to what makes NFL teams win and lose games. 

2) Personnel Variation. There are various levels of dedication and personnel on the field. Simply put, some players need the preseason more than others, some play more than others. 

Say, Melvin Gordon runs sprint right and breaks a weak arm tackle by an established DB who is not going to risk injury in the preseason and Gordon gains 25 yards. The next play, Melvin Gordon runs sprint left and is met by a 2nd-string LB literally playing his heart out to make the team, this is moment this LB has to put on tape to help sell himself for his career & livelihood - he lays out and tackles Godron for a 2 yard gain. With this type of variation all over the field, is there really that much information we can glean out of Melvin Gordon's stats at the end of the day? 

3) The speed. The NFL is about fast decisions, quick first steps and solid techniques under pressure. The preseason is played at a slower pace. If you've been watching pre-season, it's immediately evident when Opening Day kicks off. What does this mean? It means that the environment that Aaron Rodgers, A.J Green, Von Miller, Richard Sherman excel above their peers is not available for preview in the preseason. When the speed is cranked up another level, the cream rise to the top- while the speed is sitting at a comfortable medium-high, some players will look much better than they will in the regular season. 

but that's not to say there is nothing to be gained by Preseason...

because there is one key thing to watch for...

Eyeball Hype Doug Martin last year, Mark Ingram last year - these guys looked better, faster, quicker. They didn't pop off stats or big highlights- none of that would even matter because of what I wrote above. It's only that they looked different- does a WR look like they're cutting sharper than they have before? Is an RB making better decisions? These things you cannot quantify- you can only trust your eyeballs (or the eyeballs of someone you trust!)

This weekend I will be watching for players that hype my eyeballs, I hope you will be too! 

Follow us @HeadlessFF on Twitter, eyeball hype will be a big theme this weekend. 

-Miles McGillivray

Monday, February 8, 2016

SUPER BOWL 50

Denver Broncos, 24 Carolina Panthers, 10

The last 10 years have been a golden age of passing offense for the NFL. The rules are tougher on an NFL Defense than they have ever been. Holding, targeting, launching, expanded definitions of interference and roughing- it is tough to be an elite defense now-a-days. The highlight reels of the 70s Steel Curtain, 1985 Bears, 2000 Ravens are filled with plays that today would be flagged as roughing the passer, hitting defenseless receiver, illegal contact, or simply personal fouls for unnecessary roughness. In this context, to see two elite defenses go toe-to-toe for 60 minutes of Super Bowl 50 was a real treat.

When you watch football live, you watch it for the big plays. Maybe this Super Bowl was short on the big highlights, but now that we know the result this game is worth a re-watch to appreciate what both defenses did all game. As the years go by, it's possible we may look back at this game as one of the greatest collections of defensive talent to play in a Super Bowl.

For the Panthers, 3-time 1st team All-Pro LB Luke Kuechly played one of his best games ever and still wasn't even the top LB in the game. CB Josh Norman shut down 100-catch man Demarious Thomas. LB Thomas Davis played every snap through a broken arm for 7 tackles. Backup DE Kony Ealy had 3 sacks, an interception and a forced fumble. DT Kawaan Short was impossible to block. The Panthers shut down Peyton Manning and RB C.J Anderson's hard running from the opening whistle to the final confetti. The Broncos managed only 11 first downs and 194 yards. So why wasn't the confetti blue and silver? Because the Broncos defense was even better.

For the Broncos, LB Von Miller played his 2nd-straight game of Lawrence Taylor-esque dominance. DE Malick Jackson and DE Derek Wolfe were an absolute force all game. The inside was clogged, the outside had DE DeMarcus Ware and Miller. There was nowhere to go. The Broncos forced 4 fumbles, recovered 3 of them, had 7 sacks and a crucial interception. The big names Ware and Miller combined for 4.5 sacks, but D-Coordinator Wade Phillips also brought blitzes from the secondary, CB Chris Harris Jr and S Darian Stewart each took part in the feeding frenzy.

2015 MVP QB Cam Newton still got a few plays in, he found a slicing WR Ted Ginn Jr for 45 yards, he hurled a deep ball to WR Philly Brown that S T.J Ward mis-played for 42 yards, Newton and WR Devin Funchess had two impressive over-the-middle 20-yard connections. However, none of these plays were part of sustained drives. The Broncos pass rush was simply too furious, Newton landed a punch or two but was no match against the onslaught. As I talked about in my preview blog, the Panthers line needed all the resources they could commit to contain DEs Derrick Wolfe and Malick Jackson and move the ball against under-rated LBs Danny Trevathan and Brandon Marshall. As as result of that devotion of manpower to the middle, they couldn't consistently double-team Ware and Miller on the outside, All 7 sacks were a product of inevitability. It was just a matter of time.

QB Peyton Manning didnt have a Manning day, more of a Dilfer day, but he deserved this. For all the mediocre, subpar or injury-depleted defenses he dragged to the playoffs over the last 18 years, Peyton Manning deserved a 2001 Tom Brady type Super Bowl. His career has now taken a remarkable ark, the 200-win 2-time Super Bowl Champion. The man with the repuation for playoff losses and "choking" in big games is the only QB to win a Super Bowl with two different teams. Add in the All-Time Records for passing yardage and TDs and it's safe to say Peyton's career is now complete.

KEY PLAY: The score was 16-7 with 5:57 remaining in the 3rd quarter, the Panthers driving towards the red zone, Cam Newton overshot Ted Ginn Jr into the waiting arms of S T.J Ward. Ward has been the Tasmanian devil of this defense full of energy but unpredictable. In this case, he couldn't find his footing but was stubbornly determined to run it back. Predictably, the ensuing hit caused a fumble that LB Danny Trevathan, at a full sprint, recovered at the 10 yard line. That fumble was the break the Panthers needed, and it didn't bounce their way.

MVP: Von Miller sped around RT Mike Remmers to force the fumble that bounced into the end zone for the first Touchdown of Super Bowl 50. Von Miller bulled through Remmers to force the fumble the sealed the game with 4 minutes remaining. Two perfect bookends to a dominating performance.


Wednesday, February 3, 2016

The Denver Defense

The Panthers convincing playoff victories are fresh in everyone's minds. They are currently favored by 6 in Vegas and soon Cam Newton will win MVP. I'm here for the 2nd time in 3 years to tell you, the Defense is being overlooked.

It was only two years ago that Peyton dragged a decimated Denver Defense into the Super Bowl only to be blown out by a Seahawks Defense that everyone knew was "really good" but didn't know the extent until the actual game. It's happening again only this time Peyton is being dragged by a Defense that everyone knows is "really good'. Why will the Denver Defense became great on Sunday?

#1 - 100-tackle men MLB Brandon Marshall and MLB Danny Trevathan are having their career years in the middle of this Denver Defense. They are smart, quick and powerful against the run and work well together. Their relentlessness combines with the unexpectedly elite level of play from D-Linemen Derrick Wolfe and Malick Jackson. Wolfe and Jackson have been consistently bad match-ups for interior O-linemen- both have quick first steps, yet they are powerful enough to hold the middle. The offensive line can take no liberty, they must scheme and account for these four in the middle. Thus, they have less resources to devote to problem #2…

#2 - Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. When you have elite talent on the field, it will shine through. Miller is becoming a superstar as we speak while Ware has been one of the best players in the NFL for a full decade. The Broncos move both around to find the best match-ups, usually on opposite ends of the formation. You've seen enough highlights to know what these guys can do in a 1-on-1 situation. However, if an offense devotes double teams to both Miller and Ware, then 2 key blockers are taken from the ongoing battle with Marshall, Trevathan, Wolfe and the muddy middle. This is not an easy puzzle to solve, this is why Denver's been so good on defense this year.

But there's more. We've seen excellent front 7's with match-up nightmeares before- they don't all win the Super Bowl. Why not? Even all-time great front 7's can be overcome through the air - yes, you're facing a tough pash rush, but a good QB (such as the reigning MVP Cam Newton can claim to be) could make quick enough decisions to hit his playmakers in space. The key to Denver's truly dominant defense, is that there's elite defensive talent within that space as well...

#3 - CB Aqib Talib, CB Chris Harris Jr and CB Brandon Roby. The Denver Broncos have 3 of the top corners in the league.  They have allowed next to nothing to opposing WRs this season. It has been so utterly hopeless that teams have all but sacrificed their WRs as options (as the Patriots chose to target RB James White 18 times to Amendola & Edelman's 11 total targets)

#4 - S T.J Ward. Another key piece to the Denver puzzle - the frentic play of S T.J Ward. He's the rapid fire support that comes in on the run and flys out into pass protection. In this modern day passing world of the NFL, the Safety has become more and more important. T.J Ward is having a great year, the Broncos have elite pass-rushers, elite run-stoppers, elite corners- all of whom don't need help from T.J Ward. Ward is free to do what he does best, find the ball and make things happen.

#5 - Wade Phillips. It's been a long and befuddling road for Wade Phillips who has is most remembered for his blank expressions during his Buffalo and Dallas head coaching tenures. But he's still a top shelf Defensive Coordinator. He doesn't have a fancy scheme that he forces on his players, Phillips is taking this personnel and maximizing it.

-miles.


Monday, January 25, 2016

Sunday 1/24/16 (AFC/NFC)

Denver Broncos, 22 New England Patriots, 20

We have finally come full circle. Peyton Manning and an elite Denver Defense just did to Tom Brady in 2016 what Tom Brady and an elite New England Defense did to Peyton Manning in 2003. A complete switch. Now it's Brady with the awards and highlights and numbers but Manning with the win and a shot at a Super Bowl. Peyton's early career was defined by playoff losses to the Patriots but he's won the last 3 AFC Championships ('06, '13 and now '15 seasons).

Let's not throw this all on Manning's shoulders. He had two 1st half TDs to TE Owen Daniels but in the 2nd half he was a non-factor. This game was won by the Denver Defense. The tried and true cure for the Brady Blues is defensive line dominance and Broncos LB Von Miller, LB DeMarcus Ware and DT Derek Wolfe provided it. The Patriots' injured O-line stood no chance, struggling mightily the entire game.

Manning and the Offense bowed out of the 2nd half and the Denver Defense began to bend to Brady's will but not break. Down 20-12 with 10:02 remaining, Tom Brady and the Patriots would be given 3 chances to drive the field and score a Touchdown + 2pt conversion.

First, Brady led the Patriots 64 yards to the 16 but on 4th-and-1, DeMarcus Ware had a free sprint at Brady who lofted the ball to WR Julian Edelman. CB Chris Harris Jr came off his man and made the tackle.

A prompt 3-and-out from Manning & The Broncos. Punt.

Second, Brady led the Patriots 55 yards to the 14 but on 4th-and-6, Brady again backpedalling threw into triple coverage for TE Rob Gronkowski, incomplete.

A prompt 3-and-out from Manning & The  Broncos. Punt.

You just don't give Tom Brady 3 chances! Brady hit Gronkowski on 4th-and-10 for 40 yards, then hit him again on a 4th-and-4 from the 4. Gronk powered through double coverage for a stunning back-of-the end zone TD with 17 seconds on the clock. Because of the missed XP, the OT relied on a 2pt Conversion.

KEY PLAY: The 2pt Conversion was failed. With no O-line Protection all day, the Patriots rolled Brady right but the Broncos were on him again. CB Aqib Talib read Brady's eyes, jumped in front of Edelman, tipped, and intercepted. I suppose you could also say K Stephen Gostkowski's missed XP was a major factor considering it was the reason or the 2pt conversation. It was his first missed XP since 2006.

MVP: LB Von Miller made himself a star today. He was the big name with the big sacks, a stunning bait and attack INT that was a stumble away from being a Touchdown and did lead to one of the Broncos TDs. Miller and Co were on the field almost the entire 4th quarter holding onto an 8 point lead and they kept Tom Brady from his 7th Super Bowl. Not very many defenses would have been able to do that.

Carolina Panthers, 49 Arizona Cardinals, 15

The stat that is going to truly capture what happened in Carolina today is 7-to-1. Cardinals-to-Panthers turnover ratio. Palmer threw four interceptions and fumbled twice, CB Patrick Peterson muffed a punt when Cardinals were down only 10. The Panthers took their 2nd chance, drove the field and effetively ended the game in the 2nd quarter with a 1 yard TD run by QB Cam Newton to go up 24-7.

Unlike Seattle last week, Arizona did not appear to have any fight in them once they were down 17, down 20, down 27, on-and-on until they lost by 34. The turnovers flowed freely, two per quarter, and the Cardinals Defense had no answer for the powerful ground game of Carolina. As it has been all season, Newton and RB Johnathan Stewart slashed through the the opposing D, worn down by the Panthers O-line. Led by C Ryan Kalil, G Trai Turner and T Michael Oher, the O-line has just not gotten enough credit for this 17-1 run. The Cardinals Defensive front lost their composure on the field in the 1st half, throwing up their hands, staring angrily into space. They were already beaten.

KEY PLAY: The 22 yard go route to WR Ted Ginn, the 86-yard catch-and-run by WR Corey Brown, the Newton 1 yard run, the Newton 12 yard run, LB Luke Kuchley's 2nd postseason Touchdown that closed the window on QB Carson Palmer's day. They all added up for the points that won this game. But the key that broke the spirit of the Cardinals was the Patrick Peterson muffed punt, the Defense didn't hold and the Cardinals never showed a spark again.

MVP: There were many great performances across both Lines, CB Josh Norman and LB Luke Kuchley led a dominating effort from the D but the Panthers would not be going to the Super Bowl without QB Cam Newton. He has just elevated his game, making the throws, he looks fast, strong and agile. The Panthers have designed an Offense with wrinkles that relies on power, and Newton is the throttle.

Saturday, January 23, 2016

Peyton vs Brady Round 17

Peyton Manning & Tom Brady 


There is nothing better than watching two Hall Of Fame Quarterbacks battle in a Championship Game. It's Round 17, we have to battle some fatigue, shake off a little bit of 'it's always Brady and Manning' weariness and step back to understand what we're watching. It's nice that the script is a little different this time. Tomorrow, we find out if Peyton can still hang with Brady or if Father Time has finally claimed him. It also helps that the stakes are to play in another Super Bowl. A 7th for Brady or a 4th for Peyton.

Even with all the hoop-la, it's difficult to put this rivlarly in perspective because it's been such an ingrained part of the NFL for 15 years now. I was a young NFL fan, facinated by the Cowboys/49ers matchups of the early and mid 90s. Even as someone who remembers the pre-Manning/Brady days, it's hard to think of the NFL without them. There are many who will watch tomorrow with no idea of how it will feel to look back on these two All-Time QBs and remember watching them play. The way I feel about those Aikman-Young battles, but this is super sized. 

This is the rivalry that Dan Marino and Joe Montana never had. The 500-TD man and the 4-time Super Bowl Captain battling every single year across 2 decades. They've held an entire Conference down since 2001. They have thrown for 144,635 yads and 1,060 TDs in regular seasons and 55 total playoff games, 6 against each other. These numbers are insane. 

I'm here to remind everyone to watch this game with an eye for the NFL history, that while the hype may be overblown it will fade away and the legacies that are on the line tomorrow are real. These are two players that are going to be remembered for a very long time. Tomorrow will be the last time we get to experience the thrill of the unknown in the Brady-Manning saga - the bounces, the drops, the hits and misses. It will be the last time these intertwined legacies directly effect each other, live on our TV.

Tom Brady has already surprassed Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana as the most successful QB of All-Time. Peyton Manning has already surprassed Brett Favre and Dan Marino as the Statistical King of NFL History. All that's left is to play against each other yet again in their 4th head-to-head AFC Championship. 

There may be another QB who stays elite long enough to challenge Peyton's records, and there may be another QB who goes to 6 or more Super Bowls, but these two hypothetical players most certainly will not play each other 17 times over 15 seasons. This Manning vs Brady stuff has been going on forever, but it won't happen again. I can't wait. 


-Miles

Championship Weekend 2016

New England Patriots (13-4) @ Denver Broncos (13-4)

Asked about each other once again, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning stand at their respective podiums and repeat the mantra "the game is not Brady v Manning but rather Patriots v Broncos". That's fine, they have to say that. But here on this blog- we appreciate history. This is yet another match-up vital importance to these players' legacies. Will Peyton have a chance to go out like the man who brought him to Denver, GM John Elway? Or will Brady journey to his already unprecedented 7th Super Bowl and have a chance to be the first 5-time Super Bowl winning QB?

But let's indulge Tom and Peyton and talk about these present day rosters. Denver is now a tough, ugly winner. The Defense is brimming with elite talent, LB Von Miller has become a star, S TJ Ward and LB Brandon Marshall are under-appreciated contributors. DE DeMarcus Ware and CB Aqib Talib big name players playing at a high level. Coach Gary Kubiak has finally got the run game working. If there is anyone who deserves to be carried to the Super Bowl by a Defense and Running Game, it is Peyton Manning. Manning gets alot of flack for failing in the playoffs but the truth is that he elevated many mediocre Colts and Broncos teams to much higher places than they ever deserved to be.

For New England, Tom Brady still has Coach Bill Belicheck, they remain the formidable foe of the AFC. The injury bug has bit the Offense this year, TE Rob Gronkowski and WR Julian Edelman have thankfully returned. Meanwhile, the Defense has performed at a higher level than any other time this decade. CB Malcom Butler has gone from an unknown nickel corner making the big play in the Super Bowl to an above-average starter.

KEYS FOR NE: The Patriots are humming along but injuries along that Offensive Line usually show themselves as a team goes deeper in the playoffs. The Denver D-line/Patriots O-line match-up is not a pretty one for the Patriots. Brady is one of the best short passers of All Time, he'll need it.

KEYS FOR DEN: It seems strange to say but QB Peyton Manning needs to throw one into the end zone. He didn't have a Touchdown against Pittsburgh and truthfully threw not convincing passes. The Defense and Running Game can win this game, but a few big plays from Peyton and New England likely will not stand a chance.

Arizona Cardinals (14-3) @ Carolina Panthers (16-1)

While the AFC has run through the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Ravens and Broncos for almost 20 years now, the NFC has become conference of continued excitment. When QB Carson Palmer left Oakland for Arizona, nobody was predicting anything Super. The Panthers drafted QB Cam Newton with the #1 pick 5 years ago to mixed reviews, they brought a losing record into the playoffs last season and were not expected to have success this season, much less flirt with 16-0. Yet here we are, the Panthers and the Cardinals. One of these teams will earn a 2nd shot at their first Lombardi Trophy.

The Panthers' have swagger, confidence, elite talent on both lines, LB Luke Kuchley, TE Greg Olsen, CB Josh Norman. QB Cam Newton is my vote for MVP. They could have rolled into this NFC Title Game with all the momentum in the world. They faltered down the stretch against Seattle and the reason was a miserably conservative 2nd half strategy. Do you think Coach Bruce Arians would have played it safe? No, this is the man who thew the ball late in his own game last week to try and end the game rather than bleed the clock down. The Cardinals come in fast but controlled, wise and powerful, DE Calais Campbell, WR Larry Fitzgerald, G Mike Iuapiti playing in his 4th NFCC Game in 5 years. Will the Carolina Swagger overwhelm the Arizona Wisdom?

KEYS FOR ARI: Palmer and his arsenal of Fitzgerald, WR John Brown and WR Michael Floyd can put up numbers with the best of them. However, Palmer's finger appeared to affect a large number of his throws last week. The one clear and obvious advantage Arizona has over Carolina is consistent playmakers in the receiving game. To consistently make plays, they need the ball. To get them the ball, Palmer must be accurate. To be accurate, Palmer's finger must be healthy. Thus, the key to Arizona's success if Carson Palmer's finger.

KEYS FOR CAR: The key for a Team that is 16-1 is to keep doing what their doing. The Panthers may have some troubling 2nd halves on their record but they still won those games. Power, speed, strength at all positions- the Panthers don't have to get cute- they just need to play smart and because of their talent across the baord, the dice will roll their way.

Monday, January 18, 2016

Sunday 1/17/16 (Divsional)

Carolina Panthers, 31 Seattle Seahawks, 24 

The Seahawks have made some great comebacks, they never quit, they are absolutely relentless. In four 10am playoff games they've scored 0 points but they've won 2 and made incredible comebacks in the 2 losses (this game and the 2012 Falcons game).

The Panthers barely held on to their 31-0 halftime lead, needing an onside kick recovery to hang on 31-24. Many have said the Panthers 'choked' and it's true they did play incredibly conservative but the Panthers won this game.

How many times do you hear at Halftime "The scoreboard doesn't do it justice but So-and-So dominated this half" or "If it wasn't for ____, So-and-So could be up 24-0 instead of 14-0" or the other side "So-and-so is lucky to be in this game after the half they played, only down 10". The answer is that you hear it all the time. We heard it in both games just yesterday. It happens because teams start slow, NFL games weigh one way and then they weigh the other way.

Nobody said those things at this game for a reason. When the game weighed the Panthers way they absolutely kicked the Seahawks' teeth in. RB Jonathan Stewart broke a huge run on the first play, LB Luke Kuechly scored a pick-6 early in the game, and the Panthers did not stop. The Seahawks couldn't move the ball, and the Panthers turned turnovers into TDs. They drove the short fields for 7 points, not 3.

The Seahawks came out in the 2nd half, firing on all cylinders. They drove for a FG, forced a punt, a TD, forced a punt, Wilson hit rookie WR Tyler Lockett deep for the 2nd TD, floated another to Kearse for a 3rd TD with 6:11 remaining. Another punt for Carolina. A field goal for Seattle. All the while, the Panthers played conservative, picking up a few first downs at a time to kill some clock and punt. Their plan was to hang on, avoid a turnover, and hope the red hot Wilson couldn't put up 31 himself. He almost did.

MVP: It's tough to choose an MVP from a game with such hot and cold performances from both sides but LB Luke Kuechly was a force in the middle, and had the quick step to get that first pick-6. A back-breaking play that helped put the Seahawks in the hole early.

KEY PLAY: The Panthers may have played conservative in the 2nd half, but they were relentless in the 1st. Up 24-0 at the 19 yard line, many teams would be okay to run the ball and go up 27-0. But on a 3rd-and-14, Newton launched a perfect high corner throw to a tightly covered TE Greg Olsen for a Touchdown. Technically, the Panthers still would have won without this TD but

Denver Broncos, 23 Pittsburgh Steelers, 16

Nothing has been pretty for QB Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos this season. The depleted Steelers ran shot-for-shot with the ugly, plodding, #1 seed Broncos. Manning and the Offense were dreadful, they made Pittsburgh look like the 1970s Steel Curtain out there.

With the big markets, big names, and the Prime Sunday afternoon slot, this was one of the most-watched NFL Divisional Games of All-Time. Which really means these were the eight of the most-watched Field Goals of All-Time.

While the scoreboard and box score may look boring- the game itself was well played and well coached. It was a sharp contrast to last year's undisciplined and unfocused Broncos. Coach Mike Tomlin and Coach Gary Kubiak deserve credit for two well-oiled machines. QB Ben Rothlisberger clearly didn't have the injury he stated he did- at some point structural damage is going to decrease how far you can throw the ball. You don't just "will" it to be so. Rothlisberger's a ham, so what?

The Broncos Defense held Rothlisberger and surging WR Martavis Bryant in check long enough to force a fumble in the 4th quarter from RB Fitzgerlad Touissant, get one good drive out of the Broncos Offense and a 1-yard TD run from RB C. J Anderson.

KEY PLAY: On the TD drive, the biggest play was a Peyton Manning 31-yard wobbler to WR Bernie Fowler. Manning clearly was giving himself up on the play, the refs did not blow it dead, he got back up and hit Fowler. It wasn't Manning's finest moment but for the ugly, plodding, #1 seed Broncos, it'll do.

MVP: RB C.J Anderson is heating up in the playoffs again. 15 carries for 72 yards and a hard fought goal line TD. RB Ronnie Hillman is still get a lot of work (16 carries but only 38 yards) but when push-comes-to-shove, Anderson is out there when it matters.