Football Eve - The 1/16 Fever

Today we are all waiting. 

Maybe we’re making due with college football, or just killing time at BBQs but we the Fantasy Football faithful are waiting for the big day : the true Opening Day tomorrow with 13 games. 

After that, we will move into the most difficult week of Fantasy Football. The time between Week 1 and Week 2.  What I call the 1/16 Fever. 

How do you win in Fantasy Football? By looking ahead and keep perspective. I wanted to come out with this blog right now (as opposed to after the games) to remind you to watch Week 1 with a skeptical eye. Do not be infected by good or bad performances. Don't panic and drop a high draft pick. Don't make a trade that reflects Week 1's results. 

After Week 1 is on the books, there will be a very difficult transition for the fantasy community. We have spent 7 months ranking, tinkering, shuffling, projecting and predicting without any data on the 2016 season. Suddenly, we will have 16 games to digest in 7 days before another 16 games. We will feel full of boatloads information with more incoming, but in reality- if we can keep perspective- we will actually be dwelling within a small sample size, only 1/16th of the Fantasy Season. Week 2 will be just as contradicting & confusing as Week 1.

I'm not saying putting too much stock into Week 1 is not an intellectually statistical thing, it is an emotional reaction to what you will see. The 1/16 Fever is not just a dangerous mindset, it's a tempting mindset. It's comfortable, it's easy, and it feels good to supposedly know who's actually going to be good this year and who isn't. Some of your equally obsessive fantasy friends will cave into the admittedly glorious feeling of praising the player who scored the Touchdown, while scoffing at the player who did not. They’ve got “answers” now, when before we only had questions.

Even the experts will not be able to resist the urge “Player A was a focal part of the Red zone offense we saw that - Oh what a satisfying little phrase to throw in after months and months of “I think this will happen ! To point at something we actually saw is a tempting thing. It will happen because we just saw it happen. 

Only it very well may not. Week 1 won't answer our 2016 questions, we will need more games. 

The cure for the 1/16 Fever starts with Week 2 which will equally change the fantasy landscape again, and Week 3 will do the same. Things will begin to stabilize around October, and even then we know how much uncertainty there will be. 

I am just as excited for football as anyone, but just a quick inoculation for you, we are walking into the most difficult part of the Fantasy Football Season. 

Many things that happened in Week 1 did end up becoming trends, but there was no way to tell until the season progressed.  Here are some of the horror stories from last year. They seem obvious now that they were just flashes in the pan but at the time, many of these bullet points were being touted as "common knowledge". 

2015 Week 1: 

-Austin Seferian-Jenkins had 110 yards, 2 TDs, analysts were projecting him as genuine competition for Gronk because the rookie QB clearly loves his big TE. 

-Carlos Hyde had 168 yards and 2 TDs on MNF, in many circles he was thrown into Top 5 RB status instantly. 

-Alfred Morris had 121 yards, same ol’ Alf said the masses.

-Blake Bortles had only 183 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Same Bortles as last year said the masses.

-Doug Martin had only 52 yards on 11 carries and shared a lot of time with Sims & Rainey, so much for that preseason hype that he was back. 

-The Panthers could only muster 175 of total yards against the Jaguars. Even in a winning effort with a defensive TD to help, Jonathan Stewart could only manage 56 yards. 


-Miles
Headless Chickens Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Hype

The Preseason has always been a love/hate relationship for fantasy football players and NFL fans in general. It's the least important football of the entire year, but it's also the first football after 6-7 months of NO football. 

Week 3 of the preseason is the dress rehearsal, the week that the starters play the most time (usually the first half and start of the 2nd) and since almost all of them will not play in Week 4 it is the last thing we will remember as we wait out the 10 days between the end of Preseason Week 3 and Opening Weekend.

Fantasy Football players can never wait - and neither can the experts - we waited 3 months for the Draft, then 3 more months for training camp, and now we're waiting through preseason - we are hungry for news, insights, anything that will help them get a great angle on the main course, the long-awaited regular season. 

It takes a Zen master to avoid buying into the Preseason narratives and stars, but every single year- every single year- they are proven moot once the regular season begins.

If Zen will not work, explanation will usually do the trick. Below are the 3 reasons to avoid pre-season hype and the 1 type of hype to buy into.

1) Game Plans. Or lack thereof - real NFL game-plans are not happening. Opposing coaches will often discuss what they are going to try to do at different parts of these games -with each other- so as to match up personnel and game scripts for evaluation. Anybody who says the Giants looked great "running this scheme" are missing the point of preseason. There is no element of surprise or in-game adjustments to what is happening on the field, two incredibly key ingredients to what makes NFL teams win and lose games. 

2) Personnel Variation. There are various levels of dedication and personnel on the field. Simply put, some players need the preseason more than others, some play more than others. 

Say, Melvin Gordon runs sprint right and breaks a weak arm tackle by an established DB who is not going to risk injury in the preseason and Gordon gains 25 yards. The next play, Melvin Gordon runs sprint left and is met by a 2nd-string LB literally playing his heart out to make the team, this is moment this LB has to put on tape to help sell himself for his career & livelihood - he lays out and tackles Godron for a 2 yard gain. With this type of variation all over the field, is there really that much information we can glean out of Melvin Gordon's stats at the end of the day? 

3) The speed. The NFL is about fast decisions, quick first steps and solid techniques under pressure. The preseason is played at a slower pace. If you've been watching pre-season, it's immediately evident when Opening Day kicks off. What does this mean? It means that the environment that Aaron Rodgers, A.J Green, Von Miller, Richard Sherman excel above their peers is not available for preview in the preseason. When the speed is cranked up another level, the cream rise to the top- while the speed is sitting at a comfortable medium-high, some players will look much better than they will in the regular season. 

but that's not to say there is nothing to be gained by Preseason...

because there is one key thing to watch for...

Eyeball Hype Doug Martin last year, Mark Ingram last year - these guys looked better, faster, quicker. They didn't pop off stats or big highlights- none of that would even matter because of what I wrote above. It's only that they looked different- does a WR look like they're cutting sharper than they have before? Is an RB making better decisions? These things you cannot quantify- you can only trust your eyeballs (or the eyeballs of someone you trust!)

This weekend I will be watching for players that hype my eyeballs, I hope you will be too! 

Follow us @HeadlessFF on Twitter, eyeball hype will be a big theme this weekend. 

-Miles McGillivray

SUPER BOWL 50

Denver Broncos, 24 Carolina Panthers, 10

The last 10 years have been a golden age of passing offense for the NFL. The rules are tougher on an NFL Defense than they have ever been. Holding, targeting, launching, expanded definitions of interference and roughing- it is tough to be an elite defense now-a-days. The highlight reels of the 70s Steel Curtain, 1985 Bears, 2000 Ravens are filled with plays that today would be flagged as roughing the passer, hitting defenseless receiver, illegal contact, or simply personal fouls for unnecessary roughness. In this context, to see two elite defenses go toe-to-toe for 60 minutes of Super Bowl 50 was a real treat.

When you watch football live, you watch it for the big plays. Maybe this Super Bowl was short on the big highlights, but now that we know the result this game is worth a re-watch to appreciate what both defenses did all game. As the years go by, it's possible we may look back at this game as one of the greatest collections of defensive talent to play in a Super Bowl.

For the Panthers, 3-time 1st team All-Pro LB Luke Kuechly played one of his best games ever and still wasn't even the top LB in the game. CB Josh Norman shut down 100-catch man Demarious Thomas. LB Thomas Davis played every snap through a broken arm for 7 tackles. Backup DE Kony Ealy had 3 sacks, an interception and a forced fumble. DT Kawaan Short was impossible to block. The Panthers shut down Peyton Manning and RB C.J Anderson's hard running from the opening whistle to the final confetti. The Broncos managed only 11 first downs and 194 yards. So why wasn't the confetti blue and silver? Because the Broncos defense was even better.

For the Broncos, LB Von Miller played his 2nd-straight game of Lawrence Taylor-esque dominance. DE Malick Jackson and DE Derek Wolfe were an absolute force all game. The inside was clogged, the outside had DE DeMarcus Ware and Miller. There was nowhere to go. The Broncos forced 4 fumbles, recovered 3 of them, had 7 sacks and a crucial interception. The big names Ware and Miller combined for 4.5 sacks, but D-Coordinator Wade Phillips also brought blitzes from the secondary, CB Chris Harris Jr and S Darian Stewart each took part in the feeding frenzy.

2015 MVP QB Cam Newton still got a few plays in, he found a slicing WR Ted Ginn Jr for 45 yards, he hurled a deep ball to WR Philly Brown that S T.J Ward mis-played for 42 yards, Newton and WR Devin Funchess had two impressive over-the-middle 20-yard connections. However, none of these plays were part of sustained drives. The Broncos pass rush was simply too furious, Newton landed a punch or two but was no match against the onslaught. As I talked about in my preview blog, the Panthers line needed all the resources they could commit to contain DEs Derrick Wolfe and Malick Jackson and move the ball against under-rated LBs Danny Trevathan and Brandon Marshall. As as result of that devotion of manpower to the middle, they couldn't consistently double-team Ware and Miller on the outside, All 7 sacks were a product of inevitability. It was just a matter of time.

QB Peyton Manning didnt have a Manning day, more of a Dilfer day, but he deserved this. For all the mediocre, subpar or injury-depleted defenses he dragged to the playoffs over the last 18 years, Peyton Manning deserved a 2001 Tom Brady type Super Bowl. His career has now taken a remarkable ark, the 200-win 2-time Super Bowl Champion. The man with the repuation for playoff losses and "choking" in big games is the only QB to win a Super Bowl with two different teams. Add in the All-Time Records for passing yardage and TDs and it's safe to say Peyton's career is now complete.

KEY PLAY: The score was 16-7 with 5:57 remaining in the 3rd quarter, the Panthers driving towards the red zone, Cam Newton overshot Ted Ginn Jr into the waiting arms of S T.J Ward. Ward has been the Tasmanian devil of this defense full of energy but unpredictable. In this case, he couldn't find his footing but was stubbornly determined to run it back. Predictably, the ensuing hit caused a fumble that LB Danny Trevathan, at a full sprint, recovered at the 10 yard line. That fumble was the break the Panthers needed, and it didn't bounce their way.

MVP: Von Miller sped around RT Mike Remmers to force the fumble that bounced into the end zone for the first Touchdown of Super Bowl 50. Von Miller bulled through Remmers to force the fumble the sealed the game with 4 minutes remaining. Two perfect bookends to a dominating performance.

The Denver Defense

The Panthers convincing playoff victories are fresh in everyone's minds. They are currently favored by 6 in Vegas and soon Cam Newton will win MVP. I'm here for the 2nd time in 3 years to tell you, the Defense is being overlooked.

It was only two years ago that Peyton dragged a decimated Denver Defense into the Super Bowl only to be blown out by a Seahawks Defense that everyone knew was "really good" but didn't know the extent until the actual game. It's happening again only this time Peyton is being dragged by a Defense that everyone knows is "really good'. Why will the Denver Defense became great on Sunday?

#1 - 100-tackle men MLB Brandon Marshall and MLB Danny Trevathan are having their career years in the middle of this Denver Defense. They are smart, quick and powerful against the run and work well together. Their relentlessness combines with the unexpectedly elite level of play from D-Linemen Derrick Wolfe and Malick Jackson. Wolfe and Jackson have been consistently bad match-ups for interior O-linemen- both have quick first steps, yet they are powerful enough to hold the middle. The offensive line can take no liberty, they must scheme and account for these four in the middle. Thus, they have less resources to devote to problem #2…

#2 - Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. When you have elite talent on the field, it will shine through. Miller is becoming a superstar as we speak while Ware has been one of the best players in the NFL for a full decade. The Broncos move both around to find the best match-ups, usually on opposite ends of the formation. You've seen enough highlights to know what these guys can do in a 1-on-1 situation. However, if an offense devotes double teams to both Miller and Ware, then 2 key blockers are taken from the ongoing battle with Marshall, Trevathan, Wolfe and the muddy middle. This is not an easy puzzle to solve, this is why Denver's been so good on defense this year.

But there's more. We've seen excellent front 7's with match-up nightmeares before- they don't all win the Super Bowl. Why not? Even all-time great front 7's can be overcome through the air - yes, you're facing a tough pash rush, but a good QB (such as the reigning MVP Cam Newton can claim to be) could make quick enough decisions to hit his playmakers in space. The key to Denver's truly dominant defense, is that there's elite defensive talent within that space as well...

#3 - CB Aqib Talib, CB Chris Harris Jr and CB Brandon Roby. The Denver Broncos have 3 of the top corners in the league.  They have allowed next to nothing to opposing WRs this season. It has been so utterly hopeless that teams have all but sacrificed their WRs as options (as the Patriots chose to target RB James White 18 times to Amendola & Edelman's 11 total targets)

#4 - S T.J Ward. Another key piece to the Denver puzzle - the frentic play of S T.J Ward. He's the rapid fire support that comes in on the run and flys out into pass protection. In this modern day passing world of the NFL, the Safety has become more and more important. T.J Ward is having a great year, the Broncos have elite pass-rushers, elite run-stoppers, elite corners- all of whom don't need help from T.J Ward. Ward is free to do what he does best, find the ball and make things happen.

#5 - Wade Phillips. It's been a long and befuddling road for Wade Phillips who has is most remembered for his blank expressions during his Buffalo and Dallas head coaching tenures. But he's still a top shelf Defensive Coordinator. He doesn't have a fancy scheme that he forces on his players, Phillips is taking this personnel and maximizing it.

-miles.

Sunday 1/24/16 (AFC/NFC)

Denver Broncos, 22 New England Patriots, 20

We have finally come full circle. Peyton Manning and an elite Denver Defense just did to Tom Brady in 2016 what Tom Brady and an elite New England Defense did to Peyton Manning in 2003. A complete switch. Now it's Brady with the awards and highlights and numbers but Manning with the win and a shot at a Super Bowl. Peyton's early career was defined by playoff losses to the Patriots but he's won the last 3 AFC Championships ('06, '13 and now '15 seasons).

Let's not throw this all on Manning's shoulders. He had two 1st half TDs to TE Owen Daniels but in the 2nd half he was a non-factor. This game was won by the Denver Defense. The tried and true cure for the Brady Blues is defensive line dominance and Broncos LB Von Miller, LB DeMarcus Ware and DT Derek Wolfe provided it. The Patriots' injured O-line stood no chance, struggling mightily the entire game.

Manning and the Offense bowed out of the 2nd half and the Denver Defense began to bend to Brady's will but not break. Down 20-12 with 10:02 remaining, Tom Brady and the Patriots would be given 3 chances to drive the field and score a Touchdown + 2pt conversion.

First, Brady led the Patriots 64 yards to the 16 but on 4th-and-1, DeMarcus Ware had a free sprint at Brady who lofted the ball to WR Julian Edelman. CB Chris Harris Jr came off his man and made the tackle.

A prompt 3-and-out from Manning & The Broncos. Punt.

Second, Brady led the Patriots 55 yards to the 14 but on 4th-and-6, Brady again backpedalling threw into triple coverage for TE Rob Gronkowski, incomplete.

A prompt 3-and-out from Manning & The  Broncos. Punt.

You just don't give Tom Brady 3 chances! Brady hit Gronkowski on 4th-and-10 for 40 yards, then hit him again on a 4th-and-4 from the 4. Gronk powered through double coverage for a stunning back-of-the end zone TD with 17 seconds on the clock. Because of the missed XP, the OT relied on a 2pt Conversion.

KEY PLAY: The 2pt Conversion was failed. With no O-line Protection all day, the Patriots rolled Brady right but the Broncos were on him again. CB Aqib Talib read Brady's eyes, jumped in front of Edelman, tipped, and intercepted. I suppose you could also say K Stephen Gostkowski's missed XP was a major factor considering it was the reason or the 2pt conversation. It was his first missed XP since 2006.

MVP: LB Von Miller made himself a star today. He was the big name with the big sacks, a stunning bait and attack INT that was a stumble away from being a Touchdown and did lead to one of the Broncos TDs. Miller and Co were on the field almost the entire 4th quarter holding onto an 8 point lead and they kept Tom Brady from his 7th Super Bowl. Not very many defenses would have been able to do that.

Carolina Panthers, 49 Arizona Cardinals, 15

The stat that is going to truly capture what happened in Carolina today is 7-to-1. Cardinals-to-Panthers turnover ratio. Palmer threw four interceptions and fumbled twice, CB Patrick Peterson muffed a punt when Cardinals were down only 10. The Panthers took their 2nd chance, drove the field and effetively ended the game in the 2nd quarter with a 1 yard TD run by QB Cam Newton to go up 24-7.

Unlike Seattle last week, Arizona did not appear to have any fight in them once they were down 17, down 20, down 27, on-and-on until they lost by 34. The turnovers flowed freely, two per quarter, and the Cardinals Defense had no answer for the powerful ground game of Carolina. As it has been all season, Newton and RB Johnathan Stewart slashed through the the opposing D, worn down by the Panthers O-line. Led by C Ryan Kalil, G Trai Turner and T Michael Oher, the O-line has just not gotten enough credit for this 17-1 run. The Cardinals Defensive front lost their composure on the field in the 1st half, throwing up their hands, staring angrily into space. They were already beaten.

KEY PLAY: The 22 yard go route to WR Ted Ginn, the 86-yard catch-and-run by WR Corey Brown, the Newton 1 yard run, the Newton 12 yard run, LB Luke Kuchley's 2nd postseason Touchdown that closed the window on QB Carson Palmer's day. They all added up for the points that won this game. But the key that broke the spirit of the Cardinals was the Patrick Peterson muffed punt, the Defense didn't hold and the Cardinals never showed a spark again.

MVP: There were many great performances across both Lines, CB Josh Norman and LB Luke Kuchley led a dominating effort from the D but the Panthers would not be going to the Super Bowl without QB Cam Newton. He has just elevated his game, making the throws, he looks fast, strong and agile. The Panthers have designed an Offense with wrinkles that relies on power, and Newton is the throttle.

Peyton vs Brady Round 17

Peyton Manning & Tom Brady 

There is nothing better than watching two Hall Of Fame Quarterbacks battle in a Championship Game. It's Round 17, we have to battle some fatigue, shake off a little bit of 'it's always Brady and Manning' weariness and step back to understand what we're watching. It's nice that the script is a little different this time. Tomorrow, we find out if Peyton can still hang with Brady or if Father Time has finally claimed him. It also helps that the stakes are to play in another Super Bowl. A 7th for Brady or a 4th for Peyton.

Even with all the hoop-la, it's difficult to put this rivlarly in perspective because it's been such an ingrained part of the NFL for 15 years now. I was a young NFL fan, facinated by the Cowboys/49ers matchups of the early and mid 90s. Even as someone who remembers the pre-Manning/Brady days, it's hard to think of the NFL without them. There are many who will watch tomorrow with no idea of how it will feel to look back on these two All-Time QBs and remember watching them play. The way I feel about those Aikman-Young battles, but this is super sized. 

This is the rivalry that Dan Marino and Joe Montana never had. The 500-TD man and the 4-time Super Bowl Captain battling every single year across 2 decades. They've held an entire Conference down since 2001. They have thrown for 144,635 yads and 1,060 TDs in regular seasons and 55 total playoff games, 6 against each other. These numbers are insane. 

I'm here to remind everyone to watch this game with an eye for the NFL history, that while the hype may be overblown it will fade away and the legacies that are on the line tomorrow are real. These are two players that are going to be remembered for a very long time. Tomorrow will be the last time we get to experience the thrill of the unknown in the Brady-Manning saga - the bounces, the drops, the hits and misses. It will be the last time these intertwined legacies directly effect each other, live on our TV.

Tom Brady has already surprassed Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana as the most successful QB of All-Time. Peyton Manning has already surprassed Brett Favre and Dan Marino as the Statistical King of NFL History. All that's left is to play against each other yet again in their 4th head-to-head AFC Championship. 

There may be another QB who stays elite long enough to challenge Peyton's records, and there may be another QB who goes to 6 or more Super Bowls, but these two hypothetical players most certainly will not play each other 17 times over 15 seasons. This Manning vs Brady stuff has been going on forever, but it won't happen again. I can't wait. 

-Miles

Championship Weekend 2016

New England Patriots (13-4) @ Denver Broncos (13-4)

Asked about each other once again, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning stand at their respective podiums and repeat the mantra "the game is not Brady v Manning but rather Patriots v Broncos". That's fine, they have to say that. But here on this blog- we appreciate history. This is yet another match-up vital importance to these players' legacies. Will Peyton have a chance to go out like the man who brought him to Denver, GM John Elway? Or will Brady journey to his already unprecedented 7th Super Bowl and have a chance to be the first 5-time Super Bowl winning QB?

But let's indulge Tom and Peyton and talk about these present day rosters. Denver is now a tough, ugly winner. The Defense is brimming with elite talent, LB Von Miller has become a star, S TJ Ward and LB Brandon Marshall are under-appreciated contributors. DE DeMarcus Ware and CB Aqib Talib big name players playing at a high level. Coach Gary Kubiak has finally got the run game working. If there is anyone who deserves to be carried to the Super Bowl by a Defense and Running Game, it is Peyton Manning. Manning gets alot of flack for failing in the playoffs but the truth is that he elevated many mediocre Colts and Broncos teams to much higher places than they ever deserved to be.

For New England, Tom Brady still has Coach Bill Belicheck, they remain the formidable foe of the AFC. The injury bug has bit the Offense this year, TE Rob Gronkowski and WR Julian Edelman have thankfully returned. Meanwhile, the Defense has performed at a higher level than any other time this decade. CB Malcom Butler has gone from an unknown nickel corner making the big play in the Super Bowl to an above-average starter.

KEYS FOR NE: The Patriots are humming along but injuries along that Offensive Line usually show themselves as a team goes deeper in the playoffs. The Denver D-line/Patriots O-line match-up is not a pretty one for the Patriots. Brady is one of the best short passers of All Time, he'll need it.

KEYS FOR DEN: It seems strange to say but QB Peyton Manning needs to throw one into the end zone. He didn't have a Touchdown against Pittsburgh and truthfully threw not convincing passes. The Defense and Running Game can win this game, but a few big plays from Peyton and New England likely will not stand a chance.

Arizona Cardinals (14-3) @ Carolina Panthers (16-1)

While the AFC has run through the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Ravens and Broncos for almost 20 years now, the NFC has become conference of continued excitment. When QB Carson Palmer left Oakland for Arizona, nobody was predicting anything Super. The Panthers drafted QB Cam Newton with the #1 pick 5 years ago to mixed reviews, they brought a losing record into the playoffs last season and were not expected to have success this season, much less flirt with 16-0. Yet here we are, the Panthers and the Cardinals. One of these teams will earn a 2nd shot at their first Lombardi Trophy.

The Panthers' have swagger, confidence, elite talent on both lines, LB Luke Kuchley, TE Greg Olsen, CB Josh Norman. QB Cam Newton is my vote for MVP. They could have rolled into this NFC Title Game with all the momentum in the world. They faltered down the stretch against Seattle and the reason was a miserably conservative 2nd half strategy. Do you think Coach Bruce Arians would have played it safe? No, this is the man who thew the ball late in his own game last week to try and end the game rather than bleed the clock down. The Cardinals come in fast but controlled, wise and powerful, DE Calais Campbell, WR Larry Fitzgerald, G Mike Iuapiti playing in his 4th NFCC Game in 5 years. Will the Carolina Swagger overwhelm the Arizona Wisdom?

KEYS FOR ARI: Palmer and his arsenal of Fitzgerald, WR John Brown and WR Michael Floyd can put up numbers with the best of them. However, Palmer's finger appeared to affect a large number of his throws last week. The one clear and obvious advantage Arizona has over Carolina is consistent playmakers in the receiving game. To consistently make plays, they need the ball. To get them the ball, Palmer must be accurate. To be accurate, Palmer's finger must be healthy. Thus, the key to Arizona's success if Carson Palmer's finger.

KEYS FOR CAR: The key for a Team that is 16-1 is to keep doing what their doing. The Panthers may have some troubling 2nd halves on their record but they still won those games. Power, speed, strength at all positions- the Panthers don't have to get cute- they just need to play smart and because of their talent across the baord, the dice will roll their way.

Sunday 1/17/16 (Divsional)

Carolina Panthers, 31 Seattle Seahawks, 24 

The Seahawks have made some great comebacks, they never quit, they are absolutely relentless. In four 10am playoff games they've scored 0 points but they've won 2 and made incredible comebacks in the 2 losses (this game and the 2012 Falcons game).

The Panthers barely held on to their 31-0 halftime lead, needing an onside kick recovery to hang on 31-24. Many have said the Panthers 'choked' and it's true they did play incredibly conservative but the Panthers won this game.

How many times do you hear at Halftime "The scoreboard doesn't do it justice but So-and-So dominated this half" or "If it wasn't for ____, So-and-So could be up 24-0 instead of 14-0" or the other side "So-and-so is lucky to be in this game after the half they played, only down 10". The answer is that you hear it all the time. We heard it in both games just yesterday. It happens because teams start slow, NFL games weigh one way and then they weigh the other way.

Nobody said those things at this game for a reason. When the game weighed the Panthers way they absolutely kicked the Seahawks' teeth in. RB Jonathan Stewart broke a huge run on the first play, LB Luke Kuechly scored a pick-6 early in the game, and the Panthers did not stop. The Seahawks couldn't move the ball, and the Panthers turned turnovers into TDs. They drove the short fields for 7 points, not 3.

The Seahawks came out in the 2nd half, firing on all cylinders. They drove for a FG, forced a punt, a TD, forced a punt, Wilson hit rookie WR Tyler Lockett deep for the 2nd TD, floated another to Kearse for a 3rd TD with 6:11 remaining. Another punt for Carolina. A field goal for Seattle. All the while, the Panthers played conservative, picking up a few first downs at a time to kill some clock and punt. Their plan was to hang on, avoid a turnover, and hope the red hot Wilson couldn't put up 31 himself. He almost did.

MVP: It's tough to choose an MVP from a game with such hot and cold performances from both sides but LB Luke Kuechly was a force in the middle, and had the quick step to get that first pick-6. A back-breaking play that helped put the Seahawks in the hole early.

KEY PLAY: The Panthers may have played conservative in the 2nd half, but they were relentless in the 1st. Up 24-0 at the 19 yard line, many teams would be okay to run the ball and go up 27-0. But on a 3rd-and-14, Newton launched a perfect high corner throw to a tightly covered TE Greg Olsen for a Touchdown. Technically, the Panthers still would have won without this TD but

Denver Broncos, 23 Pittsburgh Steelers, 16

Nothing has been pretty for QB Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos this season. The depleted Steelers ran shot-for-shot with the ugly, plodding, #1 seed Broncos. Manning and the Offense were dreadful, they made Pittsburgh look like the 1970s Steel Curtain out there.

With the big markets, big names, and the Prime Sunday afternoon slot, this was one of the most-watched NFL Divisional Games of All-Time. Which really means these were the eight of the most-watched Field Goals of All-Time.

While the scoreboard and box score may look boring- the game itself was well played and well coached. It was a sharp contrast to last year's undisciplined and unfocused Broncos. Coach Mike Tomlin and Coach Gary Kubiak deserve credit for two well-oiled machines. QB Ben Rothlisberger clearly didn't have the injury he stated he did- at some point structural damage is going to decrease how far you can throw the ball. You don't just "will" it to be so. Rothlisberger's a ham, so what?

The Broncos Defense held Rothlisberger and surging WR Martavis Bryant in check long enough to force a fumble in the 4th quarter from RB Fitzgerlad Touissant, get one good drive out of the Broncos Offense and a 1-yard TD run from RB C. J Anderson.

KEY PLAY: On the TD drive, the biggest play was a Peyton Manning 31-yard wobbler to WR Bernie Fowler. Manning clearly was giving himself up on the play, the refs did not blow it dead, he got back up and hit Fowler. It wasn't Manning's finest moment but for the ugly, plodding, #1 seed Broncos, it'll do.

MVP: RB C.J Anderson is heating up in the playoffs again. 15 carries for 72 yards and a hard fought goal line TD. RB Ronnie Hillman is still get a lot of work (16 carries but only 38 yards) but when push-comes-to-shove, Anderson is out there when it matters.

Saturday 1/16/16 (Divisional)

New England Patriots, 27 Kansas City Chiefs, 20 

The score may look close but the Chiefs were fighting an uphill battle all game. The Patriots ripped down the field on the opening drive, finishing with a Tom Brady-to-Rob Gronkowski standard issue pylon Touchdown. The Chiefs then took off 9 minutes of the 1st quarter, converting 4 straight 3rd downs to regain momentum and eventually settle for a field goal. They kept Tom Brady on the bench, most Kansas City fans were content.

As the game moved forward, it became clear that those plodding, ball-control Chiefs were the only Chiefs available. Down 21-6, they showed no urgency, Down 27-13 and needing two touchdowns with 6:29 the Chiefs huddled, audibled, and used the middle of the field to drain the clock in 17 plays to 1:18. It was inexplicable performance. The Patriots almost blew it with an arrogant 2nd-down pass that could have deflected anywhere but ended up deflecting into the unintended arms of WR Julian Edelman for a 1st down.

MVP: QB Tom Brady. I don't know how many Playoff MVPs I give Tom Brady but we cannot take what we are seeing for granted. Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw had 30 playoff wins combined, Brady's got 22 and still counting. And he's driving, yelling, screaming, spiking like some rookie fireball QB. His 302 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs controlled the game. He watched from the sideline as the Chiefs killed the clock for him.

KEY PLAY: QB Alex Smith did what he good, with his legs and with his check-downs but the most successful of check downs betrayed him. It was a 19-yard dart up the side by WR Albert Wilson to the 1-yard line. The game goes radically different if Wilson gets out of bounds. The clock went from 3:00 to 2:33 on that play, the following two plays were a run, a false start and a 4-yard check down in the middle of the field. The clock down to 1:27. It was the most abysmal clock management I have ever seen.

Arizona Cardinals, 26 Green Bay Packers, 20

Nobody expected the Defensive struggle of the first half. QB Carson Palmer was not on target and RB David Johnson didn't look as explosive as his Week 15-16 prime. QB Aaron Rodgers lost WR Randall Cobb to a bruised lung and the famed 3-WR Packer sets now relied on the 4th, 6th and 7th string Packer WRs (Nelson, Cobb, Adams, Montgomry all out, it fell to WRs James Jones, Jared Abbrederis and the soon to be infamous Jeff Janis). After a nullified interception return by CB Patrick Peterson, halftime ended in a 7-6 stalemate.

The Packers showed life with a Touchdown Drive to start the 2nd half, and the Cardinals took a quarter and a half but they did respond with a deflection Touchdown to WR Michael Floyd with 3:50 remaining.

This is where things get strange.

The Packers, now down 17-13 go 4-and-out. The Cardinals get the ball and with a chance to run the clock down to 1:20 and kick the Field Goal they go for the win and Palmer misses a well-covered Larry Fitzgerald along the sideline and stops the clock. Instead of 1:20, the Cardinals kick the Field Goal at the 2:00 mark.

But The Packers offense again stalls, Rodgers is sacked from the 14 to the 4 by DE Dwight Freeney on 2nd down and eventually brings up a 4th-and-20 on their own 4. 96 yards from the game-tying TD, Rodgers rolls into his end zone and launches a Hail Mary to WR Jeff Janis at mid-field. Caught.

The Packers barely made it down the field to line up and run the next play with 21 seconds, an incomplete pass. The Cardinals bring pressuer on the next play, they knock Rodgers off his mark at midfield, running and falling backwards Aaron Rodgers launches a perfect, powerful lofting dart to Jeff Janis who comes down hard with the ball in front of CB Patrick Peterson. Tie game.

KEY PLAY: On the 2nd play of OT, the Cardinals nullified the Hail Marys. Palmer dropped back and the pocked collapsed, with an uncharcteristic spin move he found space to throw to the opposite end of the field to a wide open Larry Fitzgerald. Fitz than shifted into higher gears, crushing Green Bay's hopes with each chunk of yardage, finally being brought down at the 3. The next play, the Cardinals ran a unique jet sweep, with a shuffle pitch pass to Fitz trailing the play for the game-winning TD.

MVP: Larry Fitzgerald. 8 receptions. 176 yards. 1 TD.

Divisional Weekend 2016

Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) @ New England Patriots (12-4)

Historically, the Kansas City Chiefs have had trouble advancing through the playoffs. Last weekend was their first playoff victory since 1994. In that same time frame, the New England Patriots have won 24 playoff games. It is intersting how physcologically different the fanbases percieve this game; Patriot fans hoping for 2 more wins and another chance to feel the rush of winning a Super Bowl and Chiefs fans reveling in a Playoff Victory, thanking their stars, excited for the adventure to come.

Although this is the first ever KC/NE Playoff Match-up, Bill Belicheck and Andy Reid have faced off many times, including Super Bowl 39. Belicheck has stated before that any Andy Reid team is going to be well-coached, and Reid has certainly done a fantastic job this year with a Defense riding high and an offense looking to continue to perform without Jamaal, and possibly without WR Jeremy Maclin. The Chiefs have won 11 in a row, but the Patriots... well they win AFC Divisional Games... it's just what they do. TE Rob Gronkowski is at full Gronk, WR Julian Edelman is back, so to some key defense pieces.

KEYS FOR KC: The Chiefs Defensive Front can win this game. They are the main hope to win this game. DE Justin Houston finished the Wildcard game, so did DE Tamba Hali, and LB Derrick Johnson made a name for himself. They look to improve.. on a Playoff Shutout last week. There has always been one key to defeating Tom Brady and the Patriots... and it's a relentless pass rush. Even thatdoesn't always work, as we saw when the Patriots played the Cowboys this year, but its still the Chiefs best shot.

KEYS FOR NE: QB Tom Brady took a hard, low hit to the ankle against the Dolphins in Week 17. How will he be able to move? The answer had better be decent because the Patriots O-line has sustained some serious injuries this season. Another variable will be WR Julian Edelman. A healthy Edelman at full speed makes the Patriots AFC favorites. To sum up, what team will be the least injured?

Green Bay Packers (11-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (13-3)

Three weeks ago, the Arizona Cardinals thoroughly demolished the Green Bay Packers 38-8. It didn't look close. The Packers' offense showed some spark midway through the Wildcard Washington game. Did that ignite the Packers back to the 6-0 juggernauts they appeared to be in October? Or was it a final flare up before a final flame out?

The Cardinals have had a great year, QB Carson Palmer has stayed healthy and the weapons around him have flourished. The Cardinals' Defense can't be called elite now that they have lost S Tyron Matheiu who was playing better than any other safety in the league, but they are still an above-average unit that can certainly be enough with an Offense that puts up points.

KEYS FOR GB: QB Aaron Rodgers lit up the Cardinals in the 2009-10 Playoffs for 423 yards and 5 total TDs. This was a breakout game for Rodgers, in which he truly came out from under Favre's shadow. It certainly would be nice if Rodgers could put up those numbers again but remember those numbers were put up in vain, the Packers lost that game. What Rodgers coud really use is more help from RBs Eddie Lacy and James Starks.

KEYS FOR ARI: RB David Johnson is the answer. The Cardinals have returng RB Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington in the mix but David Johnson, when given a full gameflow was a game changer. WR Larry Fitzgerald will be in the slot, the dangerous WRs Michael Floyd and John Brown outside but a big game from David Johnson will make things much easier.

Seattle Seahawks (11-6) @ Carolina Panthers (15-1)

The Panthers thought they had already taken care of the Seahawks with a Newton-to-Olsen Week 6 dagger at CenturyLink Field that knocked the Seahawks down to 2-4 and the Panthers' to a surprising 6-0. Yet here were are, the 2-time Defending NFC Champions taking on the 15-1 #1 Seed. Side note: how is this not the Primetime Game?

The Seahawks have found their swagger again, the Panthers have sustained theirs. The similarities between the teams is staggering - young, mobile QBs (Russell Wilson and Cam Newton) with surprising breakout WRs (Doug Baldwin and Ted Ginn) and returning from injury RBs (Marshawn Lynch and Jonathan Stewart). On Defense we have two of the best LBs to play the game (Bobby Wagner and Luke Kuechly) and two of the best corners (Richard Sherman and Josh Norman). Again, how is this not the Primetime Game?

The previous 5 match-ups have been Defensive Battles and there's no reason to believe this game will change that. The elusiveness of Russell Wilson, the power of Cam Newton- which will pull through to get their offense moving?

KEYS FOR SEA: Seattle oscillates between great offense and historically dreadful offense. There can be no quarters without first downs against the 15-1 Panthers, and who better to return that consistentcy then RB Marshawn Lynch. Will he back to top form? The Seahawks will need him to be.

KEYS FOR CAR: Focus. The Panthers came out incredibly flat in their 2013-14 Divisional Home Game against the 49ers. Just two weeks ago, they were posing for sideline group photos and celebrating their Week 17 vicotry as if it were the Super Bowl itself. The Panthers have the better team here but barely- they draw the toughest possibe match-up in their first playoff game as #1 seed.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) @ Denver Broncos (12-4)

Denver QB Peyton Manning is not the first Hall Of Fame Quarterback to find success with another team late in his career. Joe Montana did with Kanas City, Brett Favre did with Minnesota and Kurt Warner did with Arizona. None of those players had a playoff game against their old city. The thought of Indianapolis facing Peyton Manning in the playoffs would have been incomprehensible from 1998 to 2009. This guy was the body, hear and soul of the Colts.

So why is this not the headline of the decade?

Because the Colts are over Peyton Manning. Yes, Indianapolis has moved on from indisputably one of the top QBs of all time! Why? Because they have the player with the most promising NFL future of all, the golden boy Andrew Luck. The first and likely last matchup of legacy consequence between Manning and Luck comes this weekend. In Denver though, the cards are hugely stacked in Manning's favor as his defense is now loaded with S T.J Ward, CB Chris Harris, LB Von Miller, CB Aqib Talib and DE DeMarcus Ware. Not one of which played in the Super Bowl, whether injured or on other teams. This is not the same team of 8pt fame in Super Bowl 48.

KEYS FOR PIT: CB Vontae Davis has quietly been a dominant force on an inconsistent defense. If a good corner takes away one of Peyton's options without help, we've seen how that can pay dividends across the field for the rest of the defense against Peyton's spread attack. Now, the Broncos have been a power running team lately so take advantage of Davis' game-changing ability, the Colts will need an early lead.

KEYS FOR DEN: RB C.J Anderson, the defense, the gritty, dare-I-say Seahawk style that GM John Elway has compiled and Coach John Fox has devised must continue. Manning hasn't looked like a 50 attempt, 400 yard man in a few months. But if Manning is not the strength of the team anymore, what an incredible asset to a team's strength he is.

Sunday 1/10/16 (Wildcard)

Seattle Seahawks, 10 Minnesota Vikings, 9

This was Old School Football. The cold was crippling and creaked through every player on every play. Truly, the game simply looked a little slower in -4 degree weather and this seemed to benefit the Defenses. QB Russell Wilson and QB Teddy Bridgewater combined for only 288 passing yards (148 and 142, respectively). RB Adrian Peterson had 23 attempts for 45 attempts. That's dreadful. RB Christine Michael for the Seahawks had 21 attempts for 70 yards.

In the 4th Quarter, the Vikings led 9-0. A quick combination of a Doug Baldwin TD, an Adrian Peterson fumble, and a Haushka Field Goal suddenly put the Seahawks were ahead with 8:09 remaining. The Defenses both locked back down, each team punted twice more before the end of the game. The final punt gave the Vikings 1:42 in good field position to get Blair Walsh into range. A questionable pass interference followed by a very smooth 24-yard completion to TE Kyle Rudolph, set up a chip shot 27 yard FG for K Blair Walsh... and he missed it. That's really all you can say.

MVP: DE Cliff Avril and DE Michael Bennett were in the backfield all day. The Seahawks Offense was dreadful through 3 quarters, and if not for Avril and Bennett's constant disruptions who knows if the Seahawks would have kept the game in reach.

KEY PLAY: The biggest play is easy to remember in a game with 4 field goals, 10 punts and only 1 TD. To set up Baldwin's 3 yard TD catch, Russell Wilson took a shotgun snap below his ankles, rolling about 10 yards behind him. At this point, there was Russell and about 6 Vikings on screen- he somehow eluded them. As he got toward the line of scrimmage, he somehow found a wide open rookie WR Tyler Lockett who took it towards the opposite sideline for 24 yards to the 3. It was a wacky, wild play- ultimately the only time Seattle made it into the Red Zone and the game changing moment

Green Bay Packers, 35 Washington Redskins, 18

The momentum of these teams' respective late season games carried right into this game. The Redskins were on fire through the air to TE Jordon Reed and even on the ground with RB Alfred Morris. The Packers were sluggish on Offense, scattered on Defense. QB Kirk Cousins found WR DeSean Jackson for an nice crossing TD but Jackson had no awareness of where he was. He never brought the ball to the end zone. In fact he was so unaware, he didn't even try. The play was challenged and the Packers D performed a Goal Line Stand. The score could have been 15-0 but instead it was 11-0 when the Packers returned to form.

That's right. The spark came back to QB Aaron Rodgers. The protection got a little better, and Rodgers showed why he's one of the best players in the NFL, forcing the rag-tag Packers Offense down the field 80 and 60 yard TD drives before Halftime, then for two more TD drives in the 2nd half. For Kirk Cousins, Jordon Reed (who finished with 120 yards) and the Redskins this was surely a painful loss of momentum.

MVP: QB Aaron Rodgers is the heart of the Offense and of course the MVP but it didn't hurt that RB James Starks and RB Eddie Lacy both had good, surprisingly equal games - each with 12 carries for about 60 yards and 1 TD.

KEY PLAY: It also didn't hurt that WR DaVante Adams made some plays. Adams has been a goat of the Packers' late season struggles as he has visibly struggled to get open or make plays. Near the end of the 1st half he caught a deep sideline lob for 20 yards, and then a short slant from the 10 to the End Zone, just two plays later. This halftime TD rather than a FG was crucial.

Saturday 1/9/16 (Wildcard)

Kansas City Chiefs, 30 Houston Texans, 0

The NFL Playoffs started with a bang. A manic Houston stadium was deflated by The Forgotten Kansas City Running Back, a Mr. Knile Davis. Davis returned the Opening Kickoff 102 yards and it would be all the points the Chiefs needed to win the game.

Of course, nobody knew that so they played the rest of the game anyway. QB Brian Hoyer turned in an awful performance, 136 yards, 4 INTs and a fumble lost. In the 2nd half, the crowd was changing for Wee-den, Wee-den, but there's an age old saying in fantasy football once you starting chanting for Brandon Weeden to come into your Playoff Game, you have already lost.

MVP: TE Travis Kelce stood out on the stat sheet. 8 receptions for 128 yards. Though the entire Kansas City Team dominated the game front-to-back. Kelce was the statistical benefactor and had some brutal, rumbling yards after the catch. The Offensive Line deserves Honorable Mention as well, rotating positions and covering for injuries, they still dominated the vaunted Texans front.

KEY PLAY: It's easy to forget now that Kansas City was only ahead 13-0 when RB Alfred Blue broke lose for a 49 yard run into the Red Zone. After a converted 3rd down at the 2 by Blue, Coach Bill O'Brien rolled out DE J.J Watt in the Wildcat, with none other than DT Vince Wilfork in a Power Formation. The crowd was ready to explode with excitement, jubilation in the air just based off the formation. But LB Derrick Johnson made an cold, calculated, excellent slice into the backfield and J.J Watt had nowhere to run. The next play Brian Hoyer threw an inexplicable interception on 2nd-and-Goal. If J.J Watt scores there, I gotta think this would have been a different game.

Pittsburgh Steelers, 18 Cincinnati Bengals, 16

The first 5/8ths of the game was a defensive struggle. Despite the fact that the Steelers were moving the ball on the ground (they finished with a total of 167 yards), QB Ben Rothlisberger and the Steelers could not capitalize and led only 9-0. WR Antonio Brown broke open the game with a beautiful 60 yard catch-and-run and WR Martavis Bryant put on the finish with a highlight reel butt-flip catch TD. 15-0 and nobody thought QB A.J McCarron had it in him to come back.

The following Bengal drive was promising but was derailed in the red zone when RB Giovoni Bernard was knocked out, fumbled and the Steelers retained control. Many felt the hit was dirty, it absolutely should have been penalized as Unnecessary Roughness based on the way the referees called the a Rothlisberger-to-Wheaton play late in the 2nd Quarter. But consistency was nowhere to be found this wild and angry Saturday Night. Cincinnati and the Bengals Bench were livid, and this Divisional Game took a dark turn.

3 plays later, LB Vontaze Burfict broke free and made a legal sack on Rothlisberger that clearly injured Big Ben's shoulder. Momentum swung, the Bengals drove for a Jeremy Hill punch-in TD. Steelers back-up QB Landry Jones was ineffective, and the Bengals got the ball back a few times for a Field Goal and a leap and back-in A.J Green TD. The game looked to be over when Burfict himself cut in front and intercepted a weak Landry Jones lob with under 2 minutes remaining.

The Fall Of Cincinatti in 5 Steps.
1) Jeremy Hill fumbles on 1st down of a run-out-the-clock situation.
2) Big Ben returns to the field after being carted off, and drives through dinks and dunks.
3) Vontaze Burfict hits Antonio Brown in the head and is called for a 15-yard personal foul into Field Goal range.
4) Pacman Jones shoves a ref trying to get Steelers Assistant Coach Joey Porter off the field for another 15-yard penalty,
5) The Steelers make said FG.

Why Joey Porter was on the field has never been explained as Assistants don't come on the field for injuries, and certainly don't stay on the field after the injured player has walked back to the sidelines. There should have been off-setting penatlies but there was not, and the Steelers move on.

KEY PLAY: RB Jeremy Hill's fumble was crucial, and a brutal blow to a promising young RB's early career. However heartbreaking it give credit where credit is due- Hill didn't just drop the ball- it was ripped away by LB Ryan Shazier.

Wildcard Weekend 2016

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) @ Houston Texans (9-7)

The 2016 Kansas City Chiefs will attempt to do what no Chiefs team has done since 1994, win a playoff game. The last victory for the Chiefs was in Houston, and was with a former 49er Quarterback. The stars have aligned again. Will history come full circle? Yes this is Alex Smith and not Joe Montana, these are the Texans not the Oilers but it seems so poetically symmetrical, perhaps it's destiny.

The Chiefs and the Texans did not look like they would make it here. The Chiefs opened their season with a convincing victory over these same Texans, then lost 5 straight games and lost superstar Jamaal Charles for the season. Meanwhile, the Texans lost their own superstar Arian Foster and were embarrassed by Miami in Week 7 in one of the worst defensive performances of the decade. Both teams were 2-5 in Week 7. Since then, the Chiefs won 10 straight and the Texans have defeated their reeling AFC South foes one-by-one. So here we are.

KEYS FOR KC: Keep doing what they are doing, and that's been Rushing and Defense. The O-line has been impressive and the 1-2 punch of RB Charcandrick West and RB Spencer Ware have thrived out of Jamaal's shadow. QB Alex Smith has supplied his usual steady balance of rushing and short passing. The difference has been Defense, under LB Derrick Johnson and a healthy amount of playmakers (S Eric Berry, CB Marcus Peters) which has been relentless.

KEYS FOR HOU: WR DeAndre Hopkins has emerged as new superstar. Be it Mallet, Hoyer, Yates or Weeden, the Texans were able to move the ball because Hopkins was out there hauling in Touchdowns. It still doesn't hurt that QB Brian Hoyer has returned to the starting position. Similar to Kansas City, the Texans Defense has clicked into gear on all 3 levels since their Week 7 embarassment. DE J.J Watt, LB Brian Cushing and the secondary have been one of the best units in the NFL ever since.

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)

The Bengals have lost four straight Wild Card games. If it's going to be a 5th, it finally won't be the fault of QB Andy Dalton who had the best season of his career but went out with a thumb injury in Week 14 against these same Steelers. Now former Alabama man QB A.J McCarron will take the reigns of this incredibly talented team. The weapons are lined up (WR A.J Green, TE Tyler Eifert, the Giovoni Bernard/Jeremy Hill combo) but can McCarron fire them?

He won't be met with the stiffest Defense, there is certainly no Iron Curtain in Pittsburgh these days. In fact, the Steelers rely on their own high-powered offense to win games now. QB Ben Rothlisberger is launching it to WR Martavis Bryant, WR Marcus Wheaton, the old warhorse TE Heath Miller and the best WR in the NFL, WR Antonio Brown. Without Le'Veon Bell, this offense isn't the pick-your-poison machine it could have been, but they can still chuck it.

KEYS FOR PIT: Mask the loss of RB DeAngelo Williams. The Steelers received a valiant performance from Williams to mask the loss of Bell but who will step in for Williams? If the Steelers can't even pretend to run the ball- the Bengals Defense, with their talent up front, could wreak havoc on Big Ben's pocket. They need a semblance of a run game.

KEYS FOR CIN: Mask the loss of QB Andy Dalton. The Bengals need to put up points and in McCarron's 3 games they've scored 24, 17 and 24. What if they need more than that? Can McCarron do it? RB Jeremy Hill has been force fed carries because the Bengals have been playing very conservative. For their sake, I hope it was purposefully conservative while we ramp up to the playoffs and not conservatism out of necessity. Otherwise, the Bengals may end up playing in a head-to-head QB battle that they can't win.

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) @ Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

The headline for this game on CNN.com is "Insanely Cold". There is talk that this game has potential to be the coldest NFL game of All-Time. The 1958 Ice Bowl was -13 degrees with a wind chill in the -40s, so it's not forecasted as such (right now said to be a high of 0 degrees). Additonally, TCF Bank Stadium has a heated field with heaters on the bench. No such luck for the 1958 guys, sad to say.

The national media coverage is a little off which you'd expect but so is the sports media's coverage. Everyone is calling the game for Seattle because of the Week 13 38-7 beat down the Seahawks handed the Vikings. However, that game was without S Harrison Smith and LB Anthony Barr, two key defensive pieces for the Vikings who were criminally left off the 1st and 2nd All-Pro Teams. For the Seahawks, there will be no Marshawn Lynch nor will there be a Thomas Rawls (who went for 101 and a TD that day). These are factors that swing games. The NFL rarely repeats itself, especially not in extreme cold where there will be variables of how different players handle the weather.

KEYS FOR SEA: Beat the ever living daylights out of 2nd-year QB Teddy Bridgewater again. Bridgewater was no match for the Seahawks in Week 13. For the Seattle D, this season made a 4th straight year allowing the fewest points in the NFL and they are now firmly among the 1980s Bears and 1970s Steelers as an All-Time Best unit. On the other side, QB Russell Wilson will need a few big plays, WR Tyler Lockett is a great candidate for it.

KEYS FOR MIN: A career day from the NFL's Leading Rusher RB Adrian Peterson couldn't hurt. The Vikings were demolished physically by the Seahawks last month. No matter what the Minnesota players, it will have a mental affect. If Peterson can get going early and often, the team's confidence will grow.

Green Bay Packers (10-6) @ Washington Redskins (9-7)

I can't believe I'm about to type out the following sentence: QB Kirk Cousins and the Redskins aerial attack is flying high while QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers can't seem to move down the field with any consistency. ...Wow, what a time to be alive.

This winter, why is it Kirk Cousins and not Aaron Rodgers that comes into the playoffs with the indisputably hotter hand? For one, Rodgers has had no help from an out-of-shape RB Eddie Lacy, a slowed WR Randall Cobb and group of struggling young WRs. Usually the best player in the NFL can overcome this obstacle, right? Well, that tells you how bad WR Davante Adams, RB James Starks, the injured O-line have been for the last 10 weeks. Green Bay is 4-6 since their late October Bye Week.

In Washington, Kirk Cousins has suddenly emerged as a legitimate Franchise Quarterback because his supporting cast has expanded and thrived. You like that? Washington D.C Fans do. Maybe they didn't predict it when he was drafted in 2012 three rounds after RG3, but they have to pleased with how the chips have fallen. The Redskins Defense has finally lived up to the hype levied on them a few years ago. What a turn of events in the Capital.

KEYS FOR GB: The Green Bay Defense is one of the most over-rated and yet loudly defended units in football. It has been so for the entirety of this decade. The key for Green Bay is not for the Packers Defense to get better but for the Packers offense around Rodgers to recapture that spark and continue carrying the Defense through success.

KEYS FOR WASH: Kirk Cousins is the only QB playing at home this weekend who has thrown a Playoff Pass. He was 3 for 10 for 31 yards in relief of RG3's snapped knee in 2013. I don't think there's any question that getting WR DeSean Jackson, WR Pierre Garcon and TE Jordon Reed going early is the key to defeating Green Bay. If the passing game doesn't click, the Redskins have to hope against an Aaron Rodgers