Tuesday, February 7, 2017

SUPER BOWL 51

New England Patriots, 34 Atlanta Falcons, 28

For five decades across American backyards, high school football fields, outfields, parks, living rooms, everywhere- kids with footballs and imaginations have set the scene "(insert your name) has led a 20 point comeback, now it's overtime of the Super Bowl - this is it". It is the American Football dream, a major comeback in the Super Bowl. For 50 super bowls there have been many legendary and historic performances, suspenseful close games and nail-biting comeback attempts but there had been no significant 10+ point successful comebacks, no true movie magic moments or cinderella stories.

And for it to finally happen for a team winning their 5th Super Bowl in 16 years?

28-3 will go down as a restricted number sequence in Atlanta. That is the score the Falcons led by after a walk-in 6 yard TD reception by RB Tevin Coleman from red-hot NFL MVP QB Matt Ryan with 8:31 to play in the 3rd quarter. The big story was taking shape- the most impressive offensive playoff performance of all time- 3 games of scoring almost at will. At the point, the Falcons had spent 10+ playoff quarters scoring 98 points and dicing defenses for 1,203 yards. Tributes to Matt Ryan and his slew of weapons were writing themselves.

There was no room for error for QB Tom Brady and the Patriots and so... there were none. They responded to the 28-3 deficit with a crisp, efficient 13-play, 6-minute drive resulting in a RB James White touchdown. The Falcons went 3-and-out, a FG for the Pats, a forced fumble by LB D'Onta Hightower, a short field Brady-to-WR Danny Amendola TD and suddenly the Patriots were only down 20-28 with 6 minutes to play in the 2017 NFL Season.

This was the test that the rolling Atlanta offense had not had. Starting from their own 10, they began to the move the ball for the first time since the Coleman TD. A 39-yard screen pass to RB DaVonta Freeman and one of the greatest catches is Super Bowl history a 27-yard high point, toe-tap sideline catch to WR Julio Jones at the 22 yard line. Now within field goal range, the Falcons went for the kill and were sacked for 12 yards, followed by a 10-yard holding call and had to punt.

Focus shifted back to Brady with 3:30 left, down by 8. He led a 10-play, 90-yard drive, highlighted by a circus gravity-defying floor catch by WR Julian Edelman (perhaps some of the 2007 helmet catch karma finally came around to New England?) The topper was a RB James White 1-yard TD and 2-pt conversion to Amendola to tie the game at 28 and create the first ever Super Bowl Overtime.

The Patriots won the toss, and the result seemed inevitable. In four minutes, Brady and the momentum-heavy Pats had driven to the 2-yard line and RB James White ran his 3rd touchdown of the game, capping the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history for the underdog comeback kids, the cinderella story... I refer of course to the 5-time Super Bowl Champions.

KEY PLAY : The Falcons offense had their heroic moment with Julio Jones' 27-yard epic catch to the 22. The following play ended up turning the game, a sack for a loss of 12 yards. The Falcons went into shotgun to stay aggressive but DT Tre Flowers bull rushed up the middle and interrupted a slow developing roll out. The holding call on the next play would play a -10 yard factor as well but these two plays combined to rob the Falcons of a game-sealing field goal and forced the punt. They then watched Brady drive two scoring drives from the sideline.

MVP: Popular aesthetic backlash is shifting towards RB James White because he scored 3 touchdowns and the media coverage focused so thoroughly and comprehensively on Brady. The true fact of the matter is that Tom Brady deserves this MVP award. Brady helmed three critical do-or-die TD drives worthy of the best of Joe Montana. The desperately calm 3rd quarter response drive to the Coleman touchdown, the 3 minute final drive of regulation and 2-pt conversion to tie and the OT drive to seal the game and keep the Falcons offense from touching the ball in OT. 241 yards of pressure cooker Super Bowl-deciding drives all handled by the 5-time Champion and deserving MVP QB Tom Brady.

Monday, January 23, 2017

Sunday 1/22/17 (AFC/NFC)

Atlanta Falcons, 44 Green Bay Packers, 21

Even by the standards of this year's postseason- rich with blowouts- QB Matt Ryan and Falcons offense steam-rolled the Packers defense to the point of embarrassment. The Falcons offense drove for 500 yards and 7 touchdowns in little more than 3 quarters before the Falcons' back-ups came to mercifully kill off rest of the 4th quarter. It was not the classic shoot-out fans were hoping for. The Packers' D was pitiful while the Falcons' D was opportunistic. The day pivoted into a nice rolling celebration for the city of Atlanta and the final game in Georgia Dome.

So why wasn't this game close? Why couldn't Aaron Rodgers -currently on one of the most statistically handsome stretches of his career- keep up? What may be lost as time fades is that the Packers did move the ball through the same world-class Rodgers efficiency we have seen the last two weeks but unlike the Giants and Cowboys, the Falcons had some key stops early. Including two third down stops that resulted in a missed field goal and a punt, as well as a fumble and an interception. The Falcons scored 24 points in that time.

MVP : WR Julio Jones. The Falcons continue their swiss-army attack, but not many spread offenses have a Julio Jones. Ryan is routinely hitting 8-9 different receivers per game, an arsenal of running backs, tight ends, fullbacks... and one Julio.

Julio torched the Packers for 9 catches for 180 yards including a powerful slant-turned 73 yard TD that showcased his elite speed, elite power and toughness battling through a foot injury. Julio's dominance is not required for the Falcons to win football games, but it is a nice tool for them to have.

NewEngland Patriots, 36 Pittsburgh Steelers, 17

After Atlanta's joyous can-you-believe it celebration, Americans tuned into to see New England's spoiled fans dust off their Tom Brady jerseys for the first game of the season that they have to care about: the routine AFC Championship. However, the Patriots handled the Steelers with ease completed a 4th full day of NFL playoffs that did not produce a genuinely competitive game. This was the 8th playoff game (out of 10) to feature a home team defeating an away team by 15+ points.

After only four plays the engine of Steel hope, RB Le'Veon Bell, was hurt. WR Antonio Brown was smothered. The pass rush on Brady nonexistent and we have seen the story enough to know what will happen. With no pass rush, Brady will find the soft spot, a role player to make look like a superstar. This time it was WR Chris Hogan (9 receptions, 180 yards) who was an invisible man to the Steelers secondary.

The Patriots offense was able to move the ball the entire game- WR Julian Edelman had over 100 yards, RB LaGarrette Blount had 16 carries, Tom Brady we never stressed for options. The pressure was on the Steelers offense to compete in a shoot-out with Bell was out with a groin injury. Although RB DeAngelo Williams played well, the Patriot resources were turned and focused on Antonio Brown. Rothlisberger's tired arm was forced to manage with the likes of Cobbie Hamilton, Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers- all of whom played okay, but not nearly enough to keep Bill Belichik and Tom Brady from a 7th Super Bowl.

MVP: QB Tom Brady is also going to his 7th Super Bowl and this time on the back of an epic 384 yard, 3 TD, 0 INT domination of a young and hungry Steeler defense. While he remains tied with Bradshaw and Montana with 4 Super Bowl wins, he has earned almost twice as many appearances as both of them across a much wider range (2002-2017).


Saturday, January 21, 2017

Championship Weekend 2017

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

Load em' up boys because we has a shoot-out a-brewin'! This matchup between scorching offenses led by Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and Falcons QB Matt Ryan against already-lackluster defenses has a 61pt over/under in Vegas. The highest over/under in NFL playoff history.

QB Aaron Rodgers has the headlines, the highlight throws, the thrilling finishes and the video game stats. QB Matt Ryan meanwhile has led one of the Top 10 scoring offenses of All-Time (tied for 7th with the 2000 Rams, actually). The sports media has fallen all over themselves during this 8-game "run of the table" for Aaron Rodgers. We know the stats for Rodgers, this ongoing 8-0 masterpiece win-streak where he has accumulated 21 TDs, 2385 yards and only 1 INT. During this same span (but in one less game, the wildcard round) Matt Ryan has 17 TDs, 2,035 and only 2 INTs. Video game stats, both.

Rodgers will be without healthy versions of WR Jordy Nelson, breakout WR DeVante Adams but it just has not yet mattered who he is throwing to. He does not come up against an elite defense- the Falcons defense has struggled mightily to run the Seahawks' style without the Seahawks' players. The Packers' D is even worse- the secondary is woefully ill-equipped to handle the duality of RB Davonta Coleman and RB Tevin Coleman, the speed of WR Taylor Gabriel, much less the prototype WR Julio Jones, whose health is also in question.

KEYS FOR GB: Rodgers has only thrown 1 interception in 8 games. To beat Atlanta in the Georgia Dome against a Top 10 All-Time Offense without his top two targets this season that number will need to remain at 1 at the end of this 9th game of table-running. Rodgers simply needs to stay hot, and avoid giving the Falcons any additional drives.

KEYS FOR ATL: Matt Ryan's last NFC Championship appearance was forged around the talents of a trio of receiving targets (White, Gonzalez and a young Julio). This appearance in O-Co Kyle Shanahan's offense is built around spreading the ball around. Matty Ice simply needs to stay cold-calculating, utilizing every 2nd-string RB/WR or TE with four umlauts over his name available to him.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

Well, here we are in the un-changing AFC where 3 QBs (Tom Brady, Ben Rothlisberger and Peyton Manning) have appeared in 11/12 Super Bowls since 2002. Soon, it will be 12/13 because it's down to a Brady vs Rothlisberger AFC Championship. Interestingly, with these three QBs dominance of the AFC this will be their first playoff meeting since Ben's rookie year in 2004. 

QB Tom Brady and the Patriots are their usual blend of unheralded playmakers on offense (RB Dion Lewis, WR Julian Edelman) and a disciplined but sometimes over-matched defense. Six straight AFC Championships, wow. It goes without saying the Patriots have the edge of experience. The Steelers will be the underdogs on the road but they come into the game with two default All-Pros (RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown), a healthy offensive line and a defense molding together at the right time.

This is not the shoot-out of the GB/ATL game. There are pieces of both these defenses that when performing well can prove to be formidable. Eyes will be the performances of key players on both sides. For the Patriots, LB Dont'a Hightower has blossomed into a leader and the young playmaking secondary of CB Malcom Butler, CB Logan Ryan and S Devin McCourty all had an interception in the Divisional win over Houston. For the Steelers it always comes down to linebackers- LBs Ryan Shazier and Lawrence Timmons but especially the young potential of possible superstar LB Bud Dupree and grizzled vet LB James Harrison.

KEYS FOR PIT : I don't know if I want to sound like a broken record but I just will... generate pressure with the front four on Brady! Houston had alot of success rattling Brady, using their linebackers in creative ways to get pressure up the middle- Pittsburgh will be finding ways to do that as well. That combined with an NFL QB (which Houston lacked) remains the only formula to defeat Brady in the playoffs.

KEYS FOR NE : Coach Bill Belichick has made a career of taking away a teams' top threat- will it be Antonio Brown? Maybe. But my money is that Bill is focused on limiting the impact of the "Steel Cobra" Le'Veon Bell. The Steelers are not the high-flying offense you'd expect, if Bell cannot find room to accelerate, Pittsburgh will not thrive in pass-only mode. 

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Sunday 1/15/17 (Divisional)

Green Bay Packers, 34 Dallas Cowboys, 31

It was inevitable that after six straight playoff blow-outs, we would be treated to a proverbial "instant classic". It's almost getting redundant at this point to use 'red-hot' to describe Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, but the red-hot Rodgers & Packers delivered their hardest punches early and often. They flustered the Cowboys with a 34-yard Rodgers-to-Richard Rodgers TD on their opening drive and then poured on with two more long drives, culminating in a pair of RB Ty Montgomery touchdowns. The Packers had the #1 seed Cowboys' reeling, down 21-3 with 7:37 to-go in the half.

Twitter was calling for Tony Romo, maybe he would be better suited for a comeback? But the Cowboys responded with a very important 40-yard TD dart from rookie QB Dak Prescott to WR Dez Bryant and another field goal before half, 21-13

Aaron Rodgers started the 2nd half with six straight completions for 72 yards and a 3-yard TD to TE Jared Cooks but somehow the Cowboys were able to stop Rodgers from scoring a touchdown on his next two drives so that Dak could do what he needed to do. Dak & the Cowboys' line took over the game and made it look easy while driving for a 6-yard touchdown to TE Jason Witten (amazingly, his first postseason TD) and a 7-yard lob to Dez Bryant and a gutsy run for the 2-pt conversion to tie the game 28-28 with 4:12 remaining.

Left with 4:12 on the clock, Rodgers drove the ball to the Dallas 35 and Mike McCarthy got conservative, rushing with Ty Montgomery for a combined -3 yards instead of giving Rodgers the green light to throw. The Packers were forced to attempt a 56-yard field goal on a 4th-and-13. K Mason Crosby lined up, and nailed it.

Left with 1:33 on the clock, Dak drove the ball to the Green Bay 33 and Jason Garrett got bold, throwing on a 3rd-and-3 instead of utilizing the dominating O-line and rookie RB Ezekiel Elliot  (125yds) with a timeout left. It was incomplete and the Cowboys were forced to attempt a 52-yard field goal on a 4th-and 3. K Dan Bailey lined up, and nailed it.

Left with 0:35 on the clock, Rodgers drove the ball to the Dallas 32. The two plays that will live in Aaron Rodgers infamy; a free blitz by S Jeff Heath that Rodgers somehow did not fumble and a legendary roll to his left, on the run, perfect 36-yard throw on the sideline to TE Jared Cook who had dropped two passes on that drive alone. K Mason Crosby lined up for a 51-yard field, and nailed it!

MVP : I think it's clear that QB Aaron Rodgers is the default MVP for the Packers until otherwise noted.

Pittsburgh Steelers, 18 Kansas City Chiefs, 16

Behind Ben, Brown, Bell and Boswell the Steelers stunned the Chiefs at Arrowhead stadium. The Chiefs defense made this a game providing the 'bend-but-not-break' model for all of time, allowing almost 400 yards of offense but not a single Steeler to step into the end zone. K Chris Boswell was 6/6 in the frigid weather, the Chiefs were able to bookend the game with touchdowns but unfortunately for them could not covert the 2-pt conversion after a holding penalty.

QB Alex Smith knows who he is, and he's no 'make-it-happen' improviser. The Steelers focused on TE Travis Kelce and shut down the Chiefs' shiny new car, WR Tyreek Hill and the Chiefs were simply unable to consistently move the ball. Their only two drives of note were the two touchdown drives. Down 8pts with 9:49 left in the 4th quarter, the Chiefs still took 7 minutes to score. When they missed the 2-pt conversion it took only a 3rd-down conversion to WR Antonio Brown for the Steelers to advance to the AFC Championship.

The defense for the Chiefs was truly impressive when push came to shove, the talent of LB Justin Houston, DT Dontari Poe, LB Dee Ford and rookie DE Chris Jones (who had a great game) was on display. However, Steelers QB Ben Rothlisberger was not rattled, content to push his way to field goals. Yes it was ugly but ugly is what Ben does best. Pittsburgh was 7/15 on 3rd downs. Six of those failed 3rd downs resulted in field goals. This is the story of a field position victory, the seven converted 3rd downs were all important to field position and Big Ben and Co were routinely converting them on their way to Chiefs territory.

MVP: Okay, let's talk about RB Le'Veon Bell. This man has set the Steelers postseason rushing recording two weeks in a row! Last week's 161 is this week's 170. For a franchise routinely in the AFC playoffs and six Super Bowl titles, that's a rich history to be writing over. Bell's patience, vision and hidden explosiveness continue to dazzle. Some credit should go the completely healthy Steelers' O-line. They have finally gelled together at the right time.



Sunday, January 15, 2017

Saturday 1/14/17 (Divisional)

Atlanta Falcons, 36 Seattle Seahawks, 20

QB Russell Wilson and the Seahawks put some fear into Atlanta fans when they took the opening drive 90 yards in 14 plays culminating in a pylon TD to former Saint and Falcon-killer TE Jimmy Graham. QB Matt Ryan and that Falcons offense shed the "regular-season-only" asterisk on the responding drive, a 13-play 90-yard drive finishing with a pick-play screen to WR Julio Jones.

Twin 90-yard drives to start the Divisional round, the 3rd drive of the game started with 1 minute gone from the 2nd quarter.

Later in the 2nd, the Seahawks were holding ground 10-7 and forced a Falcons punt. KR Devin Hester appeared to play spoiler to his former team with a stunning 70-yard punt return to the 8-yard line but a back-breaking holding call on Seattle (strangely at the line scrimmage) reversed field position 85 yards. The Seahawks never recovered from that. The next play, a rookie LG stepped on Russell Wilson's foot and he fell back into the end zone for a safety. Matt Ryan took the two remaining drives of the half for 10 points and continued to pour on in the 2nd half - touchdowns to RB Tevin Coleman, RB Davonta Freeman and WR Mohamed Sanu.

The Seahawks mounted some furious scenario comebacks, including a surprisingly quick response to the final Sanu touchdown (Hester 78 yard kickoff return, next play a 31-yard dime to WR Doug Baldwin) but it was never enough. Atlanta's offense would have won this game in any scenario, they were simply unstoppable.

MVP : QB Matt Ryan (338 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT) is spreading the ball, making good decisions and crushing teams against the blitz. He wields his arsenal of dangerous WRs, versatile RBs and random TEs with incredible skill. The 2016 Falcons offense is two big games away from cementing themselves as a dark horse candidate in the conversation for Best Offense All-Time.

New England Patriots, 34 Houston Texans, 16

Tom Brady's 23rd playoff win comes at the expense of the Houston Texans. The Patriots continue to roll through the AFC on their way to their 6th-straight AFC Championship. Not only is that a record but it's not even the most successful stretch of the Belichick/Brady regime (2001-2004 three Super Bowl wins). WR Julian Edelman had 135 yards and RB Dion Lewis took the role of patented patriot patriot performer with a rushing TD, receiving TD and a kickoff return TD.

The Texans were fortunate to make this somewhat of a game in the first half. QB Brock Osweiler's incompetence was masked by two Patriot turnovers in their own territory in the 2nd quarter, one of which Osweiler managed to score. Going into half only down 13-17 and the Texans defense holding it's ground was promising, but ultimately just turnover smoke and field goal mirrors.

WR DeAndre Hopkins would have a big game with an NFL QB throwing the ball, RB Lamar Miller fought hard for yardage. The greatest irony of all is that Osweiler's best pass of the night- a majestic over the shoulder deep shot to rookie WR Will Fuller V was dropped in the end zone. Osweiler-haters will say karma for all his missed throws but that would have made the game interesting at 20-24. Instead it evolved into another blowout, the NFL playoffs now a perfect 6/6 the home team wins by 10+. We have yet to see a meaningful 4th quarter playoff drive.

MVP : RB Dion Lewis was electric and unstable, fun to watch- he sparked for a kickoff return int he 1st quarter, had an extremely large role in the offense and made Texans' miss. He also fumbled three times, one ruled down, one lost, and one recovered by an O-lineman. 3 TDs speak for themselves, bonus points for creating at least a glimmer of captivating television!






Friday, January 13, 2017

Divisional Weekend 2017

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons

Five years ago, rookie QB Russell Wilson stepped off the Georgia Dome field feeling deflated after an amazing 2nd half comeback was nullified by QB Matt Ryan in the 2012 Divisional Round. But as he walked into the locker room, Wilson said he felt a strong sense of excitement for the team's future. The Seahawks have been the top dog of the NFC ever since while Ryan and the Falcons hit rock bottom with a 4-12 2013 season and have clawed back up to relevance this year under 2nd-year coach Kyle Shanahan.

The Falcons have had one of the greatest offensive seasons of all time, All-Pro WR Julio Jones is obviously a crucial piece but the truly unstoppable aspect has been the twin versatilities of RBs DaVonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. It is a classic narrative of unstoppable force (Atlanta O) versus an immovable object (Seattle D) but hampered by the Earl Thomas injury and Atlanta's home field advantage. The Seahawks come in as underdogs in the playoffs for the first time since that 2012 match-up.

KEYS FOR SEA : With the best defense left in the NFC playoffs (GB, DAL and ATL all have suspect units on D), the Seahawks are in a position for dark horse NFC Champion. However, QB Russell Wilson will need to catch fire on the road. The duds of Week 12 in Tampa Bay (150 yards of mostly garbage passing) and Week 14 in Green Bay (5 INT) loom large. For all we hear about RB Thomas Rawls because of last week, it is all on Wilson.

KEYS FOR ATL : An early lead. The upset script for this game is that Seattle's rushing attack is truly back and the Atlanta offense is on the sideline watching Seattle rush for first downs. Nothing about Atlanta's defense is scary... except pass rusher Vic Beasley. If Seattle is down, and force to throw, Beasley and the Atlanta pass rushers could wreak havoc on Seattle's terrible O-line.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

Well, here we are again with another Texans visit the Patriots snooze-fest. I would love this to be a good game, I do want Saturday Night Football to be fun, but the Texans are pretenders amongst the Top 8 here. Brock Osweiler is a joke, and the defense has not shown greatness yet. Brian Cushing, Jadaveon Clowney & Co are jumping from a 1st-start rookie to a 200+ win, 4-time Super Bowl champion.

Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck win Divisional playoff games, it's what they do (10-2 in this round!) If they win, they will have advanced to 6 straight AFC Championships. That's insane! And who does the AFC offer as competition on this excellent weekend of Top 8 football? The 29th-ranked offense?

KEYS FOR HOU : I look forward to when Tom Brady retires so I can stop writing about this, but the key to defeating the Patriots is the pass rush. The Texans are certainly well-stacked in that area, so an upset is not impossible. Even without 3-time DPOY J.J Watt, Houston boasts an imposing pass rushing duo in DE Jadeveon Clowney and DE Whitney Mercilus.

KEYS FOR NE : The Patriots are an enigma at the skill positions, who will explode for a monster game? They lost Gronk this season but there's a lot of un-tapped potential within RB Dion Lewis, TE Marcellus Bennett and in-season acquisition WR Michael Floyd. There's still RBs LaGarrette Blount and James White, WRs Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. The big performance is a Patented Patriot Playoff Requirement, who will it be?

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

The new Dallas triplets, QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliot and WR Dez Bryant, have enjoyed a charmed season. Similar to the original Aikman/Smith/Irvin triplets they have benefited from a massive and overwhelming offensive line. T Tyron Smith, G Zack Martin and C Travis Frederick are all in serious conversation as top in the NFL at their respective positions. Talented, young skill position players and an incredible O-line in Dallas. It's a familiar recipe and it works.

But Prescott and Elliot are rookies after all, they cannot afford mistakes against the red-hot QB Aaron Rodgers. We have seen what getting hot in January can mean for mid-tier QBs like Joe Flacco and Eli Manning, what does it mean for Aaron Rodgers? Playing without Jordy is tough, but the Dallas D is much worse than the Giants'.

KEYS FOR GB : Elevated WR play. WR DaVante Adams has not been great when placed into the WR1 or WR2 role, Randall Cobb is mostly out of the slot so the Packers are hoping WR Geronimo Allison can pull some Jordy Nelson magic with Aaron Rodgers.

KEYS FOR DAL : Keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline, duh. The Cowboys big O-line and Rookie Of the Year RB Ezekiel Elliot can make all the Rodgers talk moot with long, sustained scoring drives.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs

The game has been moved to 5pm because of an impending Ice Storm. Yes, it's playoff time and KC/PIT is a treat. We have the hard-nosed traditions of these rich franchises but also a varied sparkling array of playmakers; RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown for the Steelers, TE Travis Kelce and shiny new toy WR Tyreek Hill for the Chiefs.

The potential of both teams is being realized before our very eyes, the Steelers have Brown & Bell healthy at the same time and the young defense no longer a liability. The Chiefs have kept the defense arrowhead sharp and have finally received some form of consistent playmaking around conservative QB Alex Smith. This is a great match-up.

KEYS FOR PIT : LB Bud Dupree and the young talented pieces of the Molten Steel Curtain need to begin to solidify, consistency is key because the big plays are how Kansas City kills you. QB Ben Rothlisberger may be heading a Super Bowl contender but has not looked like his old self, injuries and age possibly catching up. The freezing cold weather could make this a low-scoring game, consistency is needed on D.

KEYS FOR KC : The Chiefs are missing their top LB Derrick Johnson so it's up to DEs Justin Houston and Dee Ford with DT Dontari Poe to create chaos amongst Pittsburgh's healthy O-line. If they can win that battle, the Chiefs have the talent in the secondary (CB Marcus Peters, S Eric Berry) to battle with Pittsburgh's elite offensive weapons.

Monday, January 9, 2017

Sunday 1/8/17 (Wildcard)

Pittsburgh Steelers, 30 Miami Dolphins, 12

The promising pieces of Pittsburgh have clicked. The offense thrived by getting the ball into the hands of RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown behind a healthy offensive line. 

On defense, while this is no Steel Curtain, strong linebacker play in Pittsburgh continues to be a tradition-  LB Bud Dupree, LB Ryan Shazier and the ageless warrior LB James Harrison turned in strong performances. Dolphins QB Matt Moore gave a tough, valiant effort but was never equipped for this type of beat-down, or this type of shoot-out. 

The spark of Bell and Brown was just too much. Brown turned two short passes into 100+ yards and 2 TDS in the first quarter and after Bell's touchdown put them up 21-3, the sideline started to feel awful cold for poor Miami who practice all week in Florida. After Brown's early touchdowns, the game never felt in doubt. 

The Dolphins never quite got their stars going. WR Jarvis Landry was fed the ball but couldn't break the big play and RB Jay Ajayi, who torched Pittsburgh for 203 yards in Week 7, ran for only 33 yards before being injured in the 4th quarter. 

MVP: RB Le'Veon Bell. With Rothlisberger still groggy, the Steelers turned to defense and the graceful patience/explosive decisiveness of Le'Veon Bell. The highlight was a 10-play, 83 yard drive ending in 1 yard TD for Bell to go up 21-3. All 10 plays were handoffs to LeVeon Bell, that's simply amazing. He finished with 167 yards on 29 carries. 

Green Bay Packers, 38 New York Giants, 13

The Giants dominated the first quarter but because of drops by WR Odell Beckham Jr and rookie WR Sterling Shepard, they were only up 6-0. The Giants D held the red-hot Aaron Rodgers offense to 7 yards. Unfortunately for New York, the Giants D looked shakier and shakier with some tough injuries. It culminated in a disastrous final 2 minutes of the half : A Rodgers touchdown to WR DaVante Adams, an Eli Manning fumble forced by LB Clay Matthews, and the Rodgers Hail Mary with 0:00 to play. The highlight of the weekend: An amazing, high arcing throw that landed comfortably to WR Randall Cobb at the very back line of the end zone. 

Some may recall Eli's hail mary to end the half against Green Bay in the 2011 playoffs. In 2017, Rodgers finally got his revenge. After a solid half of play, how could the Giants have went into the locker room down 14-6?

Mid-3rd quarter, Packers coach Mike McCarthy appeared to hand the momentum back to New York. On 4th-and-1 at their own 42 the Packers handed off RB/WR Ty Montgomery who was stopped by S Landon Collins (who also made the key 3rd down stop). Two plays later, Eli Manning put an exclamation point with a 41 yard pass to WR Tavarres King.  14-13

Ok, after a weekend of wildcard duds- we are finally getting a GAME - two Super Bowl winning QBs dueling in the wildcard round - let's do this!

Well, to the disappointment and befuddlement of the NFL audience, Eli Manning and the Giants offense hardly threatened to cross mid-field for the rest of the game. Meanwhile, Rodgers & the Packers responded directly with another touchdown to Randall Cobb, added a field goal, then a 3rd touchdown to Randall Cobb. Only 7 minutes of game-play after the Manning-to-King game-maker, it was 31-13 with 9 minutes in the 4th. Another dud in a weekend of duds. 

MVP : QB Aaron Rodgers shook off a 7-yard 1st quarter to finish 362 yards and 4 TDs with 0 INTs. With Rodgers playing like that, the Giants never had a chance. Even with WR Jordy Nelson out with a rib injury in the 1st half, Rodgers continued to prove why he is one of the best players in the league. Special shout-outs to the LT David Bakhtiari and RT Brian Beluga who helped provide some surreal pockets for Rodgers all game.

Saturday, January 7, 2017

Saturday 1/7/17 (Wildcard)

Houston Texans, 27 Oakland Raiders, 14

Connor Cook's first NFL start, a postseason matchup on the road against a top 3 defense went as well as you'd think that could go. There was some garbage time stat padding, 122 of Cook's 161 yards were in the 4th quarter when the game was out of reach. Make no mistake, the Raiders were not an NFL offense this Saturday. Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Latavius Murray were invisible without Derek Carr and two Pro Bowl O-linemen also missing time. The blind optimism that the Raiders were anything but decapitated was extinguished before halftime.

By comparison, it may appear Brock Osweiler had a great game. Okay, but not great. Osweiler has been so bad this year that so routine completions were raising eyebrows, hey- maybe he can complete a pass. It also helped that Oakland's suffering offense provided endless quarters for second chances at the Wildcard Arcade. It's nice that Brock had a highlight sideline throw to WR DeAndre Hopkins but there were also consistently blown opportunities, missed throws and for a 6'8 gargantuan in the pocket- why are there so many balls batted down at the line?

It was a miserably hopeless wildcard kickoff, the Raiders hopes were in the hands of the their defense which has been their greatness weakness all season. RB Lamar Miller was able to punch a TD in, WR DeAndre Hopkins caught a short slant. The Texans were dead last in Touchdowns this season, it was nice for Houston to see those two big names celebrating in the end zone.

MVP : The Texans defense did what they had to do, they dominated. Jadaveon Clowney, with JJ Watt cheering on the sideline, was the undisputed highlight. Clowney was moved all over the line- his highlight was reading a screen, tipping the ball, and making the interception to set up the aforementioned Miller TD.

Seattle Seahawks, 26 Detroit Lions, 6

The Lions have had the "indoor team with an outdoor mentality" mantra going for 2-3 years now. In retrospect, doesn't it just seem so obvious that those declarations of strength were giving away precisely the team's weakness? Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and the Lions WRs did not show up to help Matt Stafford. Clearly, Stafford never felt right after his week 14 finger injury. Against the Seahawks, the Lions never threatened the end zone.

The Seahawks flashed their old formula - run it with a feature back (Thomas Rawls) and play great defense. These were two things were not a given without S Earl Thomas and the way the 2016 Seahawks have run the ball. Without a consistently healthy running back or a healthy Wilson, the Seahawks averaged under 100 yards rushing per game this season (after 3 years of 142/g, 172/g, 136/g).

The game remained close on the scoreboard for the 1st half and through the 3rd. The Lions' defense put up some stiff resistance in the red zone. The score was 10-6 to start the 4th but did not feel that close. Finally, the time of possession (Seahawks-37m, Lions-23m) wore the Lions down and QB Russell Wilson led two back-breaking 80+ yard touchdown drives to put the outdoor Lions to sleep.

MVP : RB Thomas Rawls. I know WR Paul Richardson provided the one-handed highlights and WR Doug Baldwin continues to be a force as the TDs add up but the MVP was clearly Rawls who set a postseason Seahawk record with 161 yards. Rawls could well be the x-factor of the entire NFC bracket. If the Seahawks can run the ball- can they be stopped?

Monday, January 2, 2017

Wildcard Weekend 2017

Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans

The Football Gods have not been kind to the Raiders. As recently as halftime of their Week 16 blowout of the Colts, the Raiders were a red hot Super Bowl favorite. QB Derek Carr was in MVP consideration and a big, rock steady offensive line was happy and healthy. The defense- admittedly a weakness - at least has that explosive pass rush of LBs Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin. We've seen teams win with this formula.

Now, only six quarters later; the Raiders have lost Derek Carr, the 1st round bye, home field advantage and back-up QB Matt McGloin (shoulder) may even be sitting out. In his place, may be rookie QB Cooper Cook. The Raiders have gone from worrying about displacing the Patriots as AFC Champs to hoping for an upset against a terrible Houston team.

Yes this game sucks, the Football Gods have been no better to Houston but somehow they bumbled to the playoffs. For the Texans' it's been a long, slow burn. $77 million dollar man QB Brock Osweiler has been a joke, benched for QB Tom Savage who hasn't been inspiring. RB Lamar Miller, WR DeAndre Hopkins have been prisoners of a limited offense. Houston's defense led by former #1 overall DE Jadeveon Clowney has been solid but nothing Super Bowl special.

So what are we left with here? A game of Osweiler/Savage -vs- McGloin/Cook? These are talented rosters, that's why they are in the playoffs, but there's little drama- the battle to be the inevitable divisional loser in New England.

KEYS for OAK : The big offensive line needs to take over the game. LT Donald Penn and LG Kelechi Osemale are the engine of this 12-4 turnaround and both were knicked-up in the Week 17 loss in Denver.

KEYS for HOU : Houston's QB, be it Savage or Osweiler, just have to play decent enough to win an ugly game. There is not a lot of hope for the Texans in the next round of the playoffs, it's true, but drawing a decapatiated Oakland team in the wildcard has been fortuitous.


Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks don't come into the postseason with the special "playing for January" momentum as they have been the last 3 seasons. QB Russell Wilson suffered injuries earlier in the year, and the offense has struggled to move, seemingly every other game. Meanwhile, the defense lost it's true heart and soul S Earl Thomas.

The Lions have lost 3 straight, including the Week 17 loss to Green Bay - the final act of an improbable comeback- 3 losses for Detroit, 3 wins for Green Bay. It's not a particularly feel-good underdog story - Detroit still hasn't won the division since 1993 and Green Bay has won 5 out of the last 6 seasons. QB Matt Stafford has created a smoke-and-mirrors season built on heart-filled comebacks, stunning resilience, and healthy heaping of Lady Luck.

KEYS for DET : WR Golden Tate and WR Marvin Jones Jr need to play well at the same time. They have had opposite trajectories this season- Jones the early star, Tate the late star - but Stafford needs them both, all game. The Detroit passing game needs to carry the team, not just with 1 minute left in the 4th but all game long.

KEYS for SEA : With a below-average (even for the Seahawks) O-line, the most important aspect of a deep Seahawks' run is a clicking of the run game, and that will be on RB Thomas Rawls. The defense can grit through even without Thomas, Wilson is still a Top 5 QB, but the run game must ignite.

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers QB Ben Rothlisberger is the only playoff-caliber Quarterback in the AFC wildcard. The Steelers are hoping that's enough to pull them through to a vintage KC/PIT battle next week. The Dolphins will certainly be missing injured QB Ryan Tannehill replaced by journeyman QB Matt Moore, but they are not the rollover it may first appear : RB Jay Ajayi has emerged as a workhorse and the defense behind DT Ndmankong Suh is why the Dolphins are here. Running game and Defense always carries potential.

Speaking of potential, we are still waiting for the Super-Steel-Offense of Rothlisberger, RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown to blow us away. We saw a glimpse at the end of the Week 16 division-clinching victory over the Ravens, but injury and inexplicable ineffectiveness has kept this from being the #1 offense you would think with two Top 3 guys at the RB and WR positions. 

KEYS for MIA: WR Jarvis Landry needs to make plays early and often. He is an X-factor in the short passing game. With a journeyman QB at the helm, the talented Landry can help the Dolphins compete and keep the Steelers from stacking against Ajayi.

KEYS for PIT : Despite being an elite part of the 2014 and 2015 Steeler teams, this is the first postseason game of RB Le'Veon Bell's career. He's been a fantasy superstar, it's time to make himself a true superstar the only way possible- in the postseason. 

New York Giants @Green Bay Packers

It's tough to say what is going to fly out of New York and walk onto the frozen tundra this Sunday. QB Eli Manning has not been inspiring this year, but he wasn't in 2007 or 2011 either. 3-year phenom WR Odell Beckham Jr has bailed Eli out game by game, short slant to the house after short slant to the house. That's a tough act to carry into the postseason. It's a good thing the Giants are a lot more than that. They are also an excellent defensive unit led by S Landon Collins and DE Oliver Vernon and recently-returned from injury CB Janoris Jenkins. 3 free agent players who have come to New York raised their game in 2016.

The Packers started slow this year offense (they are always slow on defense) and looked destined to miss the playoffs- had the league finally figured Green Bay's offense out? Is Coach Mike McCarthy actually holding Aaron Rodgers back? Then, QB Aaron Rodgers caught fire. The Packers are on a 6 game winning steak, Rodgers has 15 TDs and 0 INTs. Rodgers said they could and they did, they "ran the table".

KEYS for NYG : Pressure on Rodgers is always the key against Green Bay. Even the expensively signed talent in the Giants' secondary cannot hold off Rodgers for long. The defense can drive a deep postseason run. The ideal would be that the momentum carries off their 10pt domination of the Washington in Week 17. The Redskins were playing for a playoff spot while NYG had #5 seed already locked, it was a remarkable performance. Both of these teams are hot at the right time.

KEYS for GB : RB/WR Ty Montgomery could fill the shoes of the necessary, gashing RB. Green Bay continues to falter since 2010 without a consistent rushing attack, Montgomery has made a unique positional transition this year but looks ready to take on the challenge.