Divisional Weekend 2019

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have had little playoff success in the Super Bowl era, they have a measly 4 playoff victories since their 1969 Super Bowl IV yet somehow they never seem to be lumped in that cursed category of the Bengals (5), Browns (4), or Lions (1). In the same timeframe since Super Bowl IV, the Carolina Panthers (9) and Jacksonville Jaguars (7) have more victories in 25 fewer years of existence. For the real hit, divisional rivals Broncos (23), Raiders (22), and even Chargers (11) out-pace the Chiefs significantly.

But damnit, if things just don't feel different with their star QB Patrick Mahomes in his 2nd year, first year of action. Mahomes is the 3rd player ever to throw 50 touchdowns (the other two being Tom Brady and Peyton Manning at their absolute peaks, for crying out loud). It's a perfect storm of a star, and All-Pro caliber play of big play extraordinaire WR Tyreek Hill, elite TE Travis Kelce and the "final form" of Coach Andy Reid's innovative personnel package offense.

Arrowhead will be rocking, but so will the Colts who have overcome starting 1-5 to the Final 8. There was once a day when QB Andrew Luck was the generational QB star to rival Peyton and Brady, it would be quite the statement to knock off the 50-TD kid the same way he last knocked the Chiefs out of the playoffs in 2014. The Colts O-line, and smart, efficient scheme was impressive- they still face an uphill battle.

KEYS for IND : Slowing down Mahomes and the Chiefs is about the best the Colts D can hope for, but an early lead and the same kind of drive-sustaining short passing game from Luck and Reich's efficient system would make it much easier.

KEYS for KC : The trio of D-linemen Chris Jones, Justin Houston and Dee Ford have been some of the very best despite the KC defense not impressing all season. With the home crowd behind them, they must get there, change the game.

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams

The Cowboys are burning bright with a defensive front that has some burgeoning stars on all levels. They also have a triplet-esque groups with QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliot and WR Amari Cooper. Meanwhile, the Rams have not impressed since the Week 11 Monday Night Football fireworks show with the Chiefs.

Even on this cross-section of Recency Bias Ave and Narrative Street, there is plenty of confidence that Coach Sean McVay will have his coming-out party after many of the 7 coaching vacancies in the last two weeks were filled by folks who have very similar resumes to Mr. McVay. The Rams will be looking for the offense to return to it's regular season glory, for RB Todd Gurley to return to form after missing Weeks 16 & 17, and for QB Jared Goff to resume the wide-open WRs Robert Woods or Brandin Cooks.

KEYS for DAL : RB Ezekiel Elliot is being utilized in all facets. This is not the time to shut down, it's time to continue to open up the Dallas offense. The Cowboys also have the personnel, especially at Linebacker, to perform what the Ram-killing scheme the Bears utilized in Week 16. To dare the team to run the ball.

KEYS for LAR : Besides the obvious need for the offense to be in top form we haven't seen in weeks, there is also the fact that the best player in the NFL resides on this team, DT Aaron Donald (and DT Ndamukong Suh as well) could also wreck the game from that side.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

The Los Angeles Chargers draw the "10am-game-for-a-west-coast-team" card again. In the past this has apparently affected teams, but the Chargers are a little different. The Chargers are ramblers, they have no home. The Stub Hub Arena in Los Angeles has been little more than a destination game for the opposing teams' fans.

The snow could be falling, the cold front is coming in, and yet the Chargers continue to move on. The defense has considerable talent from DEs Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa to All-Pro S Derwin James and CB Desmond King.

QB Tom Brady and Coach Bill Belichick are certainly the favorites, but New England has looked shakier on offense and defense combined than ever before.  Can the WRs and RBs for the Patriots win any match-ups? WR Julian Edelman is certainly a factor in the middle, but RBs Sony Michel, James White and WRs Chris Hogan, Coddarrale Patterson are not the elite match-up issues that they theoretically hand with TE Rob Gronkowski (fading skills) and WR Josh Gordon (suspended and banned from the NFL).

KEYS for LAC: The health of RB Melvin Gordon and WR Keenan Allen, big plays will be needed to take down the Patriots at home.

KEYS for NE: Tom Brady is 41, the question is simply will he be Brady? If so, the AFC playoffs have historically been very good to him.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

Nick Foles Magic- is it real? Foles has been the underdog in every one of his four playoff victories, at what point do we start to believe? Has a career ever had this trajectory before? Foles had big numbers in 2013, a slight drop-off in 2014, before failing miserably as a starting QB for the Rams. Having failed to meet the "franchise QB" expectations, he eventually settled into the classic journeyman role back with the Eagles. Except this time, he's back.

To be fair, this is more narrative than fact. Last year's insane performances in the NFCC and Super Bowl make his other two playoff wins appear to be more than they are. Foles was still an average QB in the wildcard round and should certainly be considered nowhere near the skill of Saints QB Drew Brees.

The Saints have the even attack with RBs Alvin Kamera and Mark Ingram, WR Michael Thomas, a good O-line and the impeccable Brees. The defense has also improved throughout the season, getting solid work from all three levels and will have the added benefit of a rocking Superdome.

KEYS for PHI : The Eagles' pass rush can be rendered meaningless by Brees' quick release as we saw in Week 11 when the Saints rolled over the Eagles 48-7. Philadelphia needs competence out of their banged-up secondary. Any level of coverage that can turn the focus towards the pass rush will be important.

KEYS for NO : The offense has been elite for 13 seasons, the difference for the Saints is always the defense. The Saints defense was touted as a comeback unit in 2017, but 2018 hasn't had the same accolades. They've slowly improved over the season, the talent is there. A Super Bowl run for the Saints likely lies in the question - will the defense make plays?

Sunday 1/6/19 (Wildcard)

Los Angeles Chargers, 23 Baltimore Ravens, 17

QB Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense battled valiantly against the Ravens staunch defense to the tune of five field goals and a hard-fought goal-line TD for RB Melvin Gordon, but this game played out on the other side of the ball.

The Chargers used their recent knowledge of the Ravens' new run-first offense to their advantage. As the first team to face QB Lamar Jackson twice, they had him entirely figured out. They brought in safeties to spy and fill the gaps for Jackson and the Ravens running game. S Derwin James, S Jahleel Addae and S Adrian Phillips essentially played the Linebacker position. The Chargers recognized everything the Ravens were doing, and it showed. The Ravens achieved their third 1st down with 8:04 in the 4th quarter after six straight 3-and-outs.

With 9:02 remaining in the game, QB Lamar Jackson had 25 passing yards. With a Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco sitting on the sideline, Baltimore called for their once favorite son.

Now, someone from the future may take a glance at the box score and think nothing of the 194 passing yards next to Lamar Jackson's name. To give credit where credit is due, the Ravens suddenly started moving the ball at this point. They needed some defensive drops and fortunate bounces to get there, but they ran two long TD drives for touchdowns to WR Michael Crabtree.

When Los Angeles went 3-and-out. The Ravens had a hope and prayer with 45 seconds, no timeouts to go 66 yards. As if part of an instructional video on ball security, Lamar Jackson finally lived out the consequences of poor ball security on a strip-sack forced by DE Uchenna Nwosu. Jackson tied for the league lead in fumbles (12) during the regular season despite starting only 7 games, and had fumbled twice already in this game. Amazingly, he only lost 4 out of 14 prior to this season-ending fumble.

MVP : DE Melvin Ingram was everywhere. He had 7 solo tackles, 2 sacks, forced a key fumble and received the game-deciding fumble.

Philadelphia Eagles, 16 Chicago Bears, 15

The Double Doink.

3 quarters of quality, hard-fought football largely emanating from the interior defensive lines, one could easily argue Eagles DT Fletcher Cox and Bears DT Akiem Hicks as the key factors in the game through 3 quarters. The score was 10-9.

The 4th quarter had a lot in store. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky had a wobbly day, he did not throw an interception but that was certainly more because of happenstance than skill. Suddenly, Trubisky got hot and drove 80 yards in under 3 minutes, receptions of 19, 34 and 22. The final to WR Allen Robinson (10 rec for 143 yards) to go up 15-10 with 9 minutes remaining in the game.

After a pair of punts and down by 5, Eagles QB Nick Foles drove the Eagles to the 2-yard line where the #1 Chicago defense put together 3/4ths of an epic goal-line stand. The oldest and smallest player (RB Darren Sproles) was stopped for no gain twice, followed by an incomplete pass to WR Alshon Jeffery. On 4th-and-2, the season on the line, Foles found WR Golden Tate sprinting to the right on the goal line for the 2-yard TD.

With 10 seconds remaining in the game, K Cody Parkey hit the upright (doink) for the 6th time this season, then the crossbar (doink) and to the turf below. The ball could have easily bounced off the crossbar and in, it amounts to a literal coin flip for an NFL playoff game or as play-by-play announced Al Michaels instantly coined:

The Double Doink.

MVP : A 60-yard drive and a 4th down go-ahead TD are small potatoes for the man who won the Super Bowl, QB Nick Foles. However, we must still remember that this is a team with a back-up QB who actively took the ball in the final seconds and threw a TD to win the game.

Saturday 1/5/19 (Wildcard)

Indianapolis Colts, 21 Houston Texans, 7

Andrew Luck and the efficient Colts offense put on a clinic to start the game with back-to-back 75 and 74 yard drives, eating almost the entire 1st quarter and putting 14 on the scoreboard (6-yard TD from Luck to TE Eric Ebron, and a 2-yard burst from RB Marlon Mack).

On the other hand, the Texans offense had the wobbly feel of a tight-rope walker trying to get in the groove. They appeared to get a big break when DE J.J Watt bull-rushed and tipped the ball for a Texans interception. Unfortunately, they fell yet again just one of four 3-and-outs in this game. The ball returned to Luck who added another TD drive, 65 yards ending in an 18-yard fake-post-to-the-corner-pylon strike to WR Dontrelle Inman.

This was pretty much the game. Because of QB DeShaun Watson's inaccuracy and the surging Colts running game, we devolved into 35 minutes of garbage time, live on ESPN. Watson did miss a throw at the end of the half, a 4th-1 end zone target to Hopkins, that could have brought the score to 21-7 before half. They did not manage that 7 until the 4th quarter, after four other 2nd half drives led to no points. The Colts defense put the pressure led by rookie LB Darius Leonard.

MVP : RB Marlon Mack looked impressive all game, ending with 148 rushing yards on 24 attempts. The exclamation point was on the final drive with 3:55 remaining in the game, the Texans using their 3 timeouts for one final gasp. Mack converted a hard-fought 3rd-and-2, jumped right up and rattled two more 1st downs (runs of 15 and 26 yards) to close the game without incident.

Dallas Cowboys, 24 Seattle Seahawks, 22

Both the Cowboys and Seahawks thumped their way back and forth, trading punts, and each achieving field goals in the 1st half. With 1:47 in the half, K Sebastian Janikowski added a second field goal for the Seahawks. The Cowboys, faced with a limited clock, handed the reigns to their efficient young QB who promptly drove them 65 yards for a 11-yard TD to rookie WR Michael Gallup. This was a lessen that Seahawks did not learn from until far too late.

In the 2nd half, both teams added touchdowns. Dallas led 17-14 and KR Tavon Austin returned a punt to the Seahawks 38 yard line, Prescott hit new weapon WR Amari Cooper for another 17-yards. With the Seahawks conservative run-first-no-matter-what gameplay and lack of a kicker (Janikowski injured on a long miss), the Cowboys appeared poised to go ahead a damning 10 points late in the 3rd quarter. The Ghost of the Legion Of Boom glory days returned, and LB K.J Wright intercepted Prescott in the end zone.

With 7 minutes remaining, down 3 points, the Seahawks went 3-and-out. Dallas' impressive defense has come on strong in the 2nd half of 2018, it is a formidable combo with the engine RB Ezekiel Elliot who led a 5+ minute time crunching drive culminating in Prescott's helicopter 3rd-and-14 conversation to the 1-yard line (topped with a 1-yard TD run one play later).

At this point the Seahawks finally declined to run the ball up the middle and handed the game to Russell Wilson. He drove them 65 yards in less than a minute for the TD and 2-point conversion. The onside kicker by All-Pro P Michael Dickson was just a pop-up to a downfield player, and Dallas receives their first playoff victory in the Dak/Zeke/Cooper era.

MVP : RB Ezekiel Elliot remains the engine of the Cowboys, 26 carries for 137 yards but also 5 targets, 4 receptions and 32 yards- something Dallas would have politely declined to do two years ago. QB Dak Prescott was fiery and looked crisp in his reads and decisions to run, but Elliot and the Dallas D are a match made in heaven.

Wildcard Weekend 2019

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

QB Andrew Luck and the Colts arrive into the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Luck played through a shoulder injury and a bad coach (Pagano) in 2015 and 2016. He did so much "playing through" that he missed the entirety of 2017. The rehabbed Luck and new coach (former Eagles O-Co Frank Reich) started 1-5 this season, but looked promising.

At that point, you could have been forgiven for concluding that the Colts would have one more year on before the Luck Redemption train arrived to the Playoff Station. However, to keep the metaphor going here, they loaded in the coal and got moving, 9-1 to end the season.

There's another element coming to fruition that we as NFL fans have also waited since 2014 to see.  DEs JaDeveon Clowney and J.J Watt are finally having healthy and elite season together. They have been a driving force, along with S Tyron Matheiu and CB Kareem Jackson to a Houston defense that put together their own winning streak (9 games) after starting 0-3.

The Texans are riding QB Deshaun Watson who has lived up to the hype of his 5-game, 19 touchdown flash as a rookie in 2017 (not to mention defeating Nick Saban juggernaut Alabama in 2016 National Championship). Now, he makes his debut in the NFL playoffs with little around him. He does have one of the top weapons in the NFL at least, the 115 catch, 0 drop, WR DeAndre Hopkins.

KEYS for IND : C Ryan Kelly has been a big part of the team's success both by pass-blocking skill and protection coordination. He's been in and out with a neck injury. Kelly has been cleared but will need to stay on field for Colts to contend.

KEYS for HOU : How to keep the Colts from honing in on Hopkins? Rookie WR Keke Coutee will be back after an entire season of hamstring issues. WR DeAndre Carter is there too. RB Lamar Miller has been inconsistent with the line.

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys

QB Russell Wilson has has 100 less pass attempts, rushed for 300 less yards, but thrown the same amount of touchdowns. The efficiency of the pass offense has been amazing, made possible by the dedication and success of the run game and RB Chris Carson (though RBs Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis have taken turns as well). The Seahawks in the playoffs, with a fresh new defense (except All-Pro LB Bobby Wagner) is a testament to Head Coach Pete Carrol and GM John Schneider.

The Cowboys offense has been predictable and a laughingstock for years, at some point the stubbornness wore off and the Cowboys began passing the ball to RB Ezekiel Elliot (2nd in RB targets this season) and mixing up their looks. The arrival of WR Amari Cooper in Week 9 (tased from OAK) is likely equally important, the field-tilting threat has saved QB Dak Prescott from what looked to potentially be a career-ending season if it continued on the futile path the Cowboys started.

To devote a whole paragraph to the Dallas offense really doesn't do justice to the real reason they are hosting a playoff game. Their defense has gelled, and the hallmark of every great defense is present: stars at every level. DE DeMarcus Lawrence has continued his elite pass-rush presence that he established in 2017. Rookie LBs Leighton Vander-Esch and Jalyn Smith have potentially made more of an impact on the 2018 season more than any other duo. CB Byron Jones has become a Top 5 CB.

KEYS for SEA : The Seahawks want to establish the run, slow the game down, and let their efficient QB make the play that wins the game.

KEYS for DAL : The Cowboys want to establish the run, slow the game down, and let their efficient QB make the play that wins the game.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens

A rematch of Week 16 in which the Ravens #1 defense pressed QB Phillip Rivers on 55% of passing plays. It was a wrench that the Chargers could not overcome. Meanwhile, the elite Chargers secondary (All-Pros CB Desmond King and rookie S Derwin James) and pass rushers (DE Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram) had a hard time finding their place against the run-first Ravens defense.

The Ravens will be rolling with rookie QB Lamar Jackson, making his 8th start. They've used designed Jackson runs and short option games with RBs Gus Edwards, Kenneth Dixon to control the clock and move down the field for the top special teams weapon in the NFL, K Justin Tucker.

The Chargers, as the #5 seed, had a legitimate shot at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs all the way up until the afternoon of Week 17. Although the Chargers have no home field, really- so there's debate as to whether that would have mattered. The real point is that the Chargers were a breath away from top seed in the AFC and carry in a better record (12-4) than not only the Ravens (10-6), but also the other home field wildcard team Texans (11-5) and the bye-week Patriots (11-5).

KEYS for LAC: The Chargers must hope for their stars to come through. I mentioned the defensive talent but Rivers has a good crew with him yet again, WR Keenan Allen is having another great year and RB Melvin Gordon has leveled up yet again into a top 5 RB both between the tackles and in the passing game.

KEYS for BAL : Rookie RB Leonard Fournette has clearly been nursing an injury and has not been receiving a full workload. Now is the time, because QB Blake Bortles is himself not an elite option and his WR corps is depleted due to injury. A great RB and a great Defense is still a certain recipe for advancement, Fournette needs to flash that early-season power.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

Narratively, the Eagles enter the 2019 postseason the same way the did the 2018 postseason in which they brought home their first Super Bowl. As a talented underdog with QB Nick Foles instead of their star QB Carson Wentz. Unfortunately, the Eagles don't carry the same circumstances of home-field advantage and a bye week.

The Eagles have suffered through injuries to the secondary, and of course to their QB but still have a formidable 1-2 punch. They have DT Fletcher Cox, S Malcon Jenkins and a winning attitude on defense and C Jason Kelce, T Lane Johnson lead a talented, dynamic offensive line.

The Bears seemed an unlikely preseason team to take the NFC North with Rodgers, Cousins and Stafford headlining the pass-first NFL. They countered with their own headline, a blockbuster trade (Two 1st round picks) for perennial DPOY candidate LB Khalil Mack. Mack fit perfectly into a defense already stacked with rising stars LB Leonard Floyd, and DE Akiem Hicks and benefitting from the rise of S Eddie Jackson and top 10 rookie RB Roquan Smith. The result has been an instant and sudden rise to #1 defense for the Bears.

KEYS for PHI : How can it now be the return of Big Dick Nick Foles, playoff extraordinaire?

KEYS for CHI : As seems only appropriate for the Chicago Bears franchise, they enter the playoffs for the first time in 8 years with an elite defense and a QB who must not lose the game for them. QB Mitch Trubisky's (#2 overall pick in 2017) performance will determine the outcome, one way or the other.