Football Eve - The 1/16 Fever

Today we are all waiting. 

Maybe we’re making due with college football, or just killing time at BBQs but we the Fantasy Football faithful are waiting for the big day : the true Opening Day tomorrow with 13 games. 

After that, we will move into the most difficult week of Fantasy Football. The time between Week 1 and Week 2.  What I call the 1/16 Fever. 

How do you win in Fantasy Football? By looking ahead and keep perspective. I wanted to come out with this blog right now (as opposed to after the games) to remind you to watch Week 1 with a skeptical eye. Do not be infected by good or bad performances. Don't panic and drop a high draft pick. Don't make a trade that reflects Week 1's results. 

After Week 1 is on the books, there will be a very difficult transition for the fantasy community. We have spent 7 months ranking, tinkering, shuffling, projecting and predicting without any data on the 2016 season. Suddenly, we will have 16 games to digest in 7 days before another 16 games. We will feel full of boatloads information with more incoming, but in reality- if we can keep perspective- we will actually be dwelling within a small sample size, only 1/16th of the Fantasy Season. Week 2 will be just as contradicting & confusing as Week 1.

I'm not saying putting too much stock into Week 1 is not an intellectually statistical thing, it is an emotional reaction to what you will see. The 1/16 Fever is not just a dangerous mindset, it's a tempting mindset. It's comfortable, it's easy, and it feels good to supposedly know who's actually going to be good this year and who isn't. Some of your equally obsessive fantasy friends will cave into the admittedly glorious feeling of praising the player who scored the Touchdown, while scoffing at the player who did not. They’ve got “answers” now, when before we only had questions.

Even the experts will not be able to resist the urge “Player A was a focal part of the Red zone offense we saw that - Oh what a satisfying little phrase to throw in after months and months of “I think this will happen ! To point at something we actually saw is a tempting thing. It will happen because we just saw it happen. 

Only it very well may not. Week 1 won't answer our 2016 questions, we will need more games. 

The cure for the 1/16 Fever starts with Week 2 which will equally change the fantasy landscape again, and Week 3 will do the same. Things will begin to stabilize around October, and even then we know how much uncertainty there will be. 

I am just as excited for football as anyone, but just a quick inoculation for you, we are walking into the most difficult part of the Fantasy Football Season. 

Many things that happened in Week 1 did end up becoming trends, but there was no way to tell until the season progressed.  Here are some of the horror stories from last year. They seem obvious now that they were just flashes in the pan but at the time, many of these bullet points were being touted as "common knowledge". 

2015 Week 1: 

-Austin Seferian-Jenkins had 110 yards, 2 TDs, analysts were projecting him as genuine competition for Gronk because the rookie QB clearly loves his big TE. 

-Carlos Hyde had 168 yards and 2 TDs on MNF, in many circles he was thrown into Top 5 RB status instantly. 

-Alfred Morris had 121 yards, same ol’ Alf said the masses.

-Blake Bortles had only 183 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Same Bortles as last year said the masses.

-Doug Martin had only 52 yards on 11 carries and shared a lot of time with Sims & Rainey, so much for that preseason hype that he was back. 

-The Panthers could only muster 175 of total yards against the Jaguars. Even in a winning effort with a defensive TD to help, Jonathan Stewart could only manage 56 yards. 


-Miles
Headless Chickens Fantasy Football