Week 3 of the preseason is the dress rehearsal, the week that the starters play the most time (usually the first half and start of the 2nd) and since almost all of them will not play in Week 4 it is the last thing we will remember as we wait out the 10 days between the end of Preseason Week 3 and Opening Weekend.Fantasy Football players can never wait - and neither can the experts - we waited 3 months for the Draft, then 3 more months for training camp, and now we're waiting through preseason - we are hungry for news, insights, anything that will help them get a great angle on the main course, the long-awaited regular season.
It takes a Zen master to avoid buying into the Preseason narratives and stars, but every single year- every single year- they are proven moot once the regular season begins.
If Zen will not work, explanation will usually do the trick. Below are the 3 reasons to avoid pre-season hype and the 1 type of hype to buy into.
1) Game Plans. Or lack thereof - real NFL game-plans are not happening. Opposing coaches will often discuss what they are going to try to do at different parts of these games -with each other- so as to match up personnel and game scripts for evaluation. Anybody who says the Giants looked great "running this scheme" are missing the point of preseason. There is no element of surprise or in-game adjustments to what is happening on the field, two incredibly key ingredients to what makes NFL teams win and lose games.
2) Personnel Variation. There are various levels of dedication and personnel on the field. Simply put, some players need the preseason more than others, some play more than others.
Say, Melvin Gordon runs sprint right and breaks a weak arm tackle by an established DB who is not going to risk injury in the preseason and Gordon gains 25 yards. The next play, Melvin Gordon runs sprint left and is met by a 2nd-string LB literally playing his heart out to make the team, this is moment this LB has to put on tape to help sell himself for his career & livelihood - he lays out and tackles Godron for a 2 yard gain. With this type of variation all over the field, is there really that much information we can glean out of Melvin Gordon's stats at the end of the day?
3) The speed. The NFL is about fast decisions, quick first steps and solid techniques under pressure. The preseason is played at a slower pace. If you've been watching pre-season, it's immediately evident when Opening Day kicks off. What does this mean? It means that the environment that Aaron Rodgers, A.J Green, Von Miller, Richard Sherman excel above their peers is not available for preview in the preseason. When the speed is cranked up another level, the cream rise to the top- while the speed is sitting at a comfortable medium-high, some players will look much better than they will in the regular season.
but that's not to say there is nothing to be gained by Preseason...
because there is one key thing to watch for...
Eyeball Hype Doug Martin last year, Mark Ingram last year - these guys looked better, faster, quicker. They didn't pop off stats or big highlights- none of that would even matter because of what I wrote above. It's only that they looked different- does a WR look like they're cutting sharper than they have before? Is an RB making better decisions? These things you cannot quantify- you can only trust your eyeballs (or the eyeballs of someone you trust!)
This weekend I will be watching for players that hype my eyeballs, I hope you will be too!
Follow us @HeadlessFF on Twitter, eyeball hype will be a big theme this weekend.
-Miles McGillivray
