Wednesday, January 29, 2014

The Farewell 10 (2013/14)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-6)
It's hard to shake the heartbreaking fashion in which the Chiefs season ended, losing their star player on the first drive, building a 28 point lead anyway, and then losing anyway. But the 9-0 start, Coach Andy Reid's arrival and the star turns of RB Jamaal Charles and QB Alex Smith energized Kansas City for a comeback season.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-7)
Coach Chip Kelly had a great offense in a weak NFC East and saw WR DeSean Jackson and RB LeSean McCoy return to form. QB Nick Foles emerged with amazing efficiency. All season, there were nice, bright, shining lights on those guys but the Eagles' D was exposed as the weakness as soon as the playoffs began.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (11-6)
The Cincinnati fanbase was dealt an illusion of progress this year; 8-0 at home, an AFC North title. Yet the result was the same, an exit in the wildcard round. It was the loss of dominating DT Geno Atkins mid-season that really precipitated the Begnals' decline from elite to middling. QB Andy Dalton had a rollercoaster year with a lot of highs, but a lot of lows. This team is built to win now, and Dalton was awful in the playoff game.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-8-1)
This season, the Packers seemed cursed. Green Bay faithful watched every injury possible including the collerbone of franchise QB Aaron Rodgers. While rookie of the year RB Eddie Lacy was able to keep them afloat in the games he wasn't injured, the Green Bay D is still a weakness and Rodgers wasn't quite at full form. The dramatic 4th-and-8 blow to the the Bears for the weak NFC North division title will have to be enough for this season.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (12-6)
After a strong 5-0 start, many thought we would see a Vengeance Tour from reinstated Coach Sean Payton. The tour trains never left New Orleans. QB Drew Brees and the determined Saints were a convincing 8-0 at home but struggled in almost every away game, especially Seattle. The defense gained promising young pieces like S Kenny Vaccaro and DE Cameron Jordan, but the facts are facts, they had trouble winning on the road this season

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (12-6)
Almost everyone accepts without question that WR Reggie Wayne's ACL injury was the disaster for a team that, with Wayne, beat Seattle, San Francisco and Denver. While I do agree that Wayne is a great WR and important piece, the Colts D and skill players were being carried all year by 2nd-year QB Andrew Luck. It was sort of a 1980's-Elway-carrying-Denver dynamic happening here. Luck needs more help.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (12-5)
With a stacked D led by LB Luke Kuechly, the Panthers were able to take physical control of games. This aligned with Coach Ron Rivera's decision to trust a smarter QB Cam Newton and the Panthers soared through the regular season to the 2nd seed. However, they were shocked at the speed of the playoffs. The Panthers are strong on both sides of the ball, you get the feeling they will be back someday.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (10-8)
The Chargers never take the easy road. QB Philip Rivers had his best season in quite some time. RB Ryan Matthews, WR Keenan Allen formed key pieces around him. S Eric Weddle led an improved defense. Their late season success and playoff run makes you wonder why they struggled so much early. The Chargers have had so much skill and talent roll through their franchise in the 2000s, but they are yet to put together a full season.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (13-5)
With tape, glue, injured rookie WRs and practice squad specialists, Coach Bill Bellicheck and QB Tom Brady again carried the Patriots to the AFC Championship. Brady had a serious lack of weapons this year, and the defense took far too many key injuries. The 2010s Patriots have been strong but continue to come up short, one way or another.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (14-5)
In QB Colin Kaepernick's first full year at the helm of the powerful, deep 49ers roster, things started well, plummeted down in the fall, gathered momentum in the winter to a break-neck SB-favorite speed and crashed into the brick wall/Seattle Seahawks. They bullied Green Bay and Carolina in the playoffs but their dominating late-season run was cut short with "The Tip" by Richard Sherman. That's just the way it happened.

Monday, January 20, 2014

Sunday 1/19/14 (AFC/NFC)

Denver Broncos, 26 New England Patriots, 16

So maybe the odds were a little more stacked against the Patriots than we were willing to admit. QB Peyton Manning and his blue-chip weapons man-handled the rag-tag collection of Patriots to a 26-16 game that was far more one-sided than the score admits. WR Demaryius Thomas was dominant with 7 recptions for 134 yards, and TE Julius Thomas had 8 for 85. The Broncos offensive line kept Peyton Manning clean as a whistle. The Broncos defense shut down the Patriots running game, last week's Patriot hero RB LaGarrete Blount was held to six yards on five carries. It was all Denver on this night.

In hindsight, It really says something about Coach Bill Bellicheck and QB Tom Brady's historical ability to overcome personell issues that the media coverage up to this game was universally unwilling to call this game for the Broncos. The offense had their two emerging rookie recievers hobbled and was missing their main weapon TE Rob Gronkowski. The defense was missing essential pieces including Vince Wilfork, Brandon Spikes and Jarod Mayo. When CB Aqib Talib went down after a brutal block from former Pat WR Wes Welker, the jig was up. The Broncos moved the ball with ease, and had their way with a limited Patriot offense.

KEY PLAY: In a game with no turnovers, and a Denver offense racking up more yards than any Bill Bellicheck Patriot team ever have up, the Broncos defense was the big surprise. Near the end of the 3rd quarter, New England went aggressive on 4th-and-3, down 20-3, hoping to even out the game, until DT Terrance Knighten came through with a massive, pounding 10-yard loss sack.

MVP: WR Demaryius Thomas was bigger, faster and stronger than the Patriots' secondary (especially without Talib). He sliced past, and bowled through various Patriot arm tackles all game. Honorable mention certainly goes to his quarterback who truly spread the ball around masterfully but Thomas was the main target, the Patriots could not account for him.

Seattle Seahawks, 23 San Francisco 49ers, 17

The pundits could not have been more correct about the nature of the Seattle/San Francisco Slugfest. Everyone and their mother avoided calling another home blowout by Seattle. Everyone knew the game would be close, it would linger hard-fought in the trenches and end in thrilling fashion. The 49ers and the Seahawks delivered exactly that. A Classic Slug-fest.

LB Aldon Smith sacked, stripped and recovered a fumble from QB Russell Wilson on the very first play of the game. This gave San Francisco the ball at their own 15 but they went 3-and-out had to settle for a field goal. The tone was set. The entire first half was a defensive slugfest and ended 10-3 in San Francisco's favor. The difference was QB Colin Kaepernicks electrifying 58-yard run that set up a 1-yard, 4th down thump by RB Anthony Dixon.

In the second half, the give-and-take ensued. The Seahawks pounded straight through with RB Marshawn Lynch while Kaepernick worked from the outside, breaking containment for first downs, and a jumping dart to WR Anquan Boldin just over S Earl Thomas. Seattle responded with a gutsy 4th-and-7 to WR Jermaine Kearse. QB Russell Wilson caught Aldon Smith inexplicably offisdes with a hard count on a 4th down of a NFC Championship game (really, Aldon?) and took the free play, his own amazing throw to Kearse to give Seattle the lead.

In the 4th quarter, both defenses clamped down again. Two Kaepernick turnovers in 49er territory could have spelled doom, but San Francisco's defense allowed only 3 points. Thus, San Francisco, with 3:32 to go, 3 timeouts, down 23-17, needed only a touchdown to win. They moved the ball slowly but surely, converting a 4th-and-2 to RB Frank Gore, and a 11-yard strike to TE Vernon Davis to put them in the red zone with 0:30 on the clock. Every pundit and their mother nodded their head "I told you so" they nodded "this game would be close".

KEY PLAY: The key play has to be the final play. QB Colin Kaepernick made the same fatal mistake he made in the Super Bowl, he locked in on WR Michael Crabtree, felt the pressure from DE Cliff Avril and the ball was tipped by CB Richard Sherman into the hands of LB Malcom Smith. Kaepernick was stripped or intercepted on all 3 of his 4th quarter possession.

MVP: Former Stanford WR Doug Baldwin was the difference in this game. 106 receiving yards, including an improvised 51-yard bomb to set up Seattle's first points and a crucial kickoff return counter-punch to the San Francisco 33 after San Francisco had went up 17-10.

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Championship Weekend 2014

New England Patriots (13-4) @ Denver Broncos (14-3)

The Chargers were still walking dejectedly off the field in the background and there was already a reporter with a microphone to QB Peyton Manning's face asking about the significance of his rivalry with QB Tom Brady. The look at Peyton's face was priceless, but he rattled off the boilerplate "well, it's not Peyton vs- Tom it's Broncos -vs Patriots" answer. True, but he knows, this is big.

It is true that this is a Patriots -vs Broncos game. These Patriots are not the seasoned champions generally associated with the Manning/Brady rivalry. In fact, there are no Patriots on the active roster that have a Patriot Super Bowl ring besides Brady. The Broncos, clearly, are an entirely different team to this rivalry than the usual Colts. Truly, the other 88 players are playing just a normal AFC Championship between #1 and #2 in the AFC.

But doesn't that just make the rivalry all the more interesting? Here are in-arguably two of the top five QBs in NFL history meeting a full 10 years after the Colts/Patriots 2003 AFC Championship. Since then, they have combined for 3 Super Bowl wins, 3 Super Bowl losses, 7 MVP awards, and have traded the passing touchdown record from Manning's 48 TDs in 2004, to Brady's 50 in 2007, to Manning's 55 this season. Everything around them has built up, fallen down and rebuilt but here they are, yet again, with two entirely different rosters competing at the very top of the AFC and a chance to solidify themselves as the best QB in NFL History.

I know some will bristle at that, maybe muttering 'Joe Montana', 'Terry Bradshaw' or 'Brett Favre' under their breath right about now. Really though, this is a chance at best QB in NFL history for both of them. A Super Bowl victory by Brady or Manning would make overwhelming cases. It would give Brady 4 championships, two other appearances, and much better stat-lines and longevity than the other 4-time champs (Montana and Bradshaw). For Manning, a 2nd championship with another team would sit impressively beside the 5 MVP awards. This game will provide one with that shot.

The game is about the two quarterbacks, it just is, whether you like it or not. These are guys who get teams to the Super Bowl. And there is only one thing that is clear between  the Broncos or Patriots., Neither team is going  to the Super Bowl without a big performance from their Hall-Of-Fame Quarterback.

KEYS FOR NE: After all the hyperbole I just wrote about legendary quarterbacks it's hilarious to come back to keys of the game and talk about the running backs. It's true though. I don't know if it will be RB LaGarette Blount, or if the Patriots will unleash another weapon in typical Patriot fashion. If there was a game for DE Chandler Jones to emerge this would be it. Nobody is going to cover all those receivers for very long and a pass rush is the formula to victory.

KEYS FOR DEN: In their previous OT loss in New England, the Broncos offense was about as hindered as it had been all season. In the bitter cold, they relied on turnovers and RB Knowshon Moreno to an early lead and collapse late to lose in OT. This game will need to involve WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Wes Welker and TE Julius Thomas much more. The Broncos main advantage will be in these players in the skill positions on the outside.

San Francisco 49ers (14-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

The two best teams in the NFL play two weeks before the Super Bowl. It's hard to argue with the power, strength and speed these two young teams have. In the last two years a red-hot rivalry has exploded on the west coast. These teams dislike each other intensely. They have split 2-2 in the last two seasons, each won the division once, and will now meet in the NFC Championship for a shot at the Super Bowl.

Coach Pete Carroll and Coach Jim Harbaugh do not like each other. They may respect each other, they may even admire the other's success but as Pete Carroll added after another coachspeak session about respecting your opponent "...but we are not friends". From their 'whats your deal?' Stanford and USC days, they are epic contrasts in sideline style. Harbaugh will throw his tempter tantrums at the referees throughout the entire game and Carroll will cheer, smirk, and smack his Bubblicious. It will make for good TV between plays. During the actual plays we will see two very similarly built teams.

Both teams are young, absolutely bursting with speed and talent on defense and offense, Before and throughout the season they have made convincing cases as the top two teams in the league. The reason is their overall roster depth and their under-rated skill players. Two of a dying breed, the workhorse backs, RB Frank Gore and RB Marshawn Lynch will wage war on the formidable front sevens. Two of the new age, QB Colin Kaepernick and QB Russell Wilson will look for the big game-changing plays through the air, or on the ground. The top two defenses in the league will search, stretch, scratch and pummel for a big turnover or stop.

The nature of the last four games has been knock-down, drag-out, wars in the trenches but both teams have enough firepower to open it up if they need to as well. Seattle's offense has struggled for the last month while San Francisco's has been red hot. Then again, San Francisco;s offense has been absolutely slaughtered in Seattle 16 total points in their last two trips. The lack of momentum on Seattle's side, the deafening noise jamming San Francisco's side. I'm willing to chalk these two factors to a draw.

KEYS FOR SF: QB Colin Kaepernick likely will need a quick start to take Seattle's crowd down a notch. Although he has insisted it is "not that loud" and that the team simply "didn't execute", he has been visibly rattled and thrown 4 interceptions to 1 garbage-time touchdown. The 49ers are up against their younger selves, they don't win without a big game from Kap.

KEYS FOR SEA: Fans, media, pundits alike are worried sick about the offense. It's the way we are. Fantasy football, offensive records, Madden games, they all revolve around what the offense is doing. With these kind of eyes, the 9-yard reception is worth a thousand times more than the 9-yard pass defended. CB Richard Sherman, S Earl Thomas, LB Bobby Wagner, DE Red Bryant, these are names that are just as important as running backs, quarterbacks or wide receivers. This is one of the best defenses of all time, and this is their biggest stage so far to prove it.

Monday, January 13, 2014

Sunday 1/12/14 (Divsional)

San Francisco 49ers, 23 Carolina Panthers, 10

San Francisco continues their bid as this year's hot team in the post-season, dispatching Carolina swiftly -  bullying, mocking, and pounding over a previously hot Panthers team. The Panthers pressed early and seemed to wear down late. After the game, QB Cam Newton admitted the postseason pace was a bit of a shock. Without WR Steve Smith (who aggravated his previous injury), the Panthers offense was overwhelmed by the 49er Defense.

In the 1st half, the 49ers were given three huge breaks; an awful unnecessary roughness call with a tipped ball in the air to continue the first drive, a missed 12-man in the huddle call on a touchdown before the half and a head-butt personal foul called against the Panthers but later uncalled against WR Anquan Boldin.

Coach Jim Harbaugh has built an impressive team and bad calls & temper tantrums aside (Harbaugh literally ran on the field waving and flaying his arms like a child at one point) the 49ers steamrolled the Panthers in the 2nd half. QB Colin Kaepernick took awhile to get going, but made enough plays with his arm and his legs. The backbone was another under-hyped performance from RB Frank Gore, 92 total yards in this slugfest.

KEY PLAY: 3rd down and 1 with 12 minutes left in the 4th quarter, the Panthers D was primed for a stand and a swing of momentum. Instead, RB Frank Gore burst through for a 39-yard run to the Carolina 27-yard line. In a game full of defensive stops and short yardage stands, this conversion was huge.

MVP: WR Anquan Boldin jawed with the cornerbacks and got away with multiple personal fouls that were inexplicably not called. He was also the entire passing game for San Francisco (136 of 196 total passing yards) and the difference in the game.

Denver Broncos, 24 San Diego Chargers, 17

QB Peyton Manning would never admit it, but he had to feel some relief after winning his first playoff game since the 2009 season and first with the Denver Broncos. I would imagine the Broncos, who paid a pretty penny for Manning two years ago, breathed significant a sigh of relief as well. The Broncos rolled through the Chargers. They built a nice 17-0 lead for 3 quarters, and when Chargers unlocked their potential by opening things up for QB Phillip Rivers who sliced and diced down the field cutting the lead 17-7 in the 4th, Manning and RB Knowshon Moreno led a emphatic rebuttal drive to keep the Chargers at bay, capped by Moreno's 3-yard TD run.

Although WR Keenan Allen (6 rec, 142 yards and 2 TDs) might have a long career of terrorizing the Denver Broncos ahead, it was too little too late. LB Shaun Philips and the Broncos D held the Chargers to 259 yards, a nice sign for a beleaguered unit consistently put into the 'weakness' blurb in the Broncos media breakdown.

KEY PLAY: With 3:51 remaining in the game 24-17, the Chargers hot off another Keenan Allen touchdown and with 2 timeouts, it would have fit the narrative so well if Peyton Manning had gone 3-and-out when it counted. Even after all the records and hype, they would fail to get it done when it mattered. That almost happened. After a false start, a 2 yard loss and an incomplete pass, the Broncos faced a 3rd-and-17 and the prospect of giving the ball back with 3 minutes to play. Instead, Manning re-wrote the storyline with a 21-yard sideline dart to TE Julius Thomas. The Broncos ran the ball well, Manning converted another 3rd down to Thomas with 2:12 left and the Broncos held the ball to win the game.

MVP: The offense was held under 400 yards for the first time all year, but QB Peyton Manning was 25 for 36 and two touchdowns. Truly, it should have been four, two balls hit receivers in the chest, one intercepted, one settled for a field goal. He engineered the final two drives, the TD drive to put them back up 17, and the final drive to eat the clock. Manning even gained 25 yards drawing five different Chargers into encroachment, catching them listening to the 'omaha' snap count signal.

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Saturday 1/11/14 (Divisional)

Seattle Seahawks, 23 New Orleans Saints, 15

The weather in Seattle alternated from stormy downpours to blue sky sunshine and back again as the Seahawks were able to handle the Saints and fend of a furious, wild comeback attempt.

In the end, the Saints out-gained the Seahawks 409 yards to 277 but missed two field goals, lost a fumble and had zero points through the first three quarters.

QB Drew Brees, WR Marques Colston and the slew of Saint pass-catchers didn't really get the ball moving until the 4th quarter, already down 16-0. They chipped away with a touchdown drive and 2pt conversion, 8-16.

Unfortunately for New Orleans, K Shayne Graham missed a chance to add 3 more late in the 4th quarter and RB Marshawn Lynch placed the sluggish offense on his back with a 31-yard run, a stiff-arm harkening back to that fateful 2011 wild card game.

When the blue skies had returned the Saints were in desperation mode. They needed two touchdowns with 2:40 on the clock. Amazingly, they got one with 0:32 on the clock and subsqueqently recovered the onside kick. No miracles were to be had on this day. A trick play with an illegal forward pass ran the clock and Seattle breathed relief, and advanced.

KEY PLAY: In a vision right out of the Seattle offseason QB Russell Wilson pump faked to WR Percy Harvin, the entire Saints D bit and RB Marshawn Lynch was handed the ball in space, he pounded through the exposed Saints secondary for his 1st touchdown of the game. With the elements pounding down, a 10-0 lead was crucial.

MVP: RB Marshawn Lynch is the perfect compliment to the tough, physical Seattle D. Lynch bashed the Saints for 140 yards and 2 TDs, once again he not only produced and set the tone but delivered the knockout punch.

NewEngland Patriots, 43 Indianapolis Colts, 22

The New England Patriot run game has been impressive this year, nostalgic memories of the early Brady years. A bullying offensive line broke the Patriots backs (primarily RB LaGarrete Blount this time) for 234 total rushing yards. The Colts D was over-matched, and consequently the Colts offense pressed a little too hard.

QB Andrew Luck actually played fairly similar to the Kansas City game. He was lightning in a bottle on a few brilliant throws but other times looked rattled and forced into a few bad throws, four of which were intercepted (he threw three bad interceptions against KC, a forgotten stat). This time, there was no rhythm to be had for a comeback as Luck sat mostly on the sidelines watching the Patriots run the ball for touchdowns after his interceptions. After the game, Luck shaved the "neard" on his face and said he felt like a "lost puppy", not having expected to lose. Everyone knows we have not seen the last of Andrew Luck.

On the other end of the spectrum, QB Tom Brady was efficient with 198 yards, content to hand the ball off for Blount and RB Stevan Ridley's combined six rushing touchdowns. The Patriots ran the ball 46 times and passed 25, a far cry from the 2007-2012 pass-happy group that has come short of two Super Bowls.

KEY PLAY: Only 29-22 to start the 4th quarter, RB LaGarrete Blount's 73-yard touchdown run set the nail up and LB Jamie Collins' interception on the next play hammered it down.

MVP: RB LaGarrete Blount, 166 yards and 4 touchdowns, delivers one of the more impressive postseason performances thus far. The announcers mentioned a few times that he was "running with purpose". Normally, that phrase sounds cliche' but watching Blount run in this game, I find it to be an appropriate description.

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Divisional Weekend 2014

New Orleans Saints (12-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

The Saints march into Seattle for the 3rd time in three years. Previously, they have suffered through the "Beast Quake", a wild-card loss in 2012 and the Monday Night Massacre this season in week 13. QB Drew Brees was held to 147 yards, his first time under 200 yards since 2010 and lowest total since 2006.

Besides the previous two matchups, QB Russell Wilson, RB Marshawn Lynch, S Earl Thomas and CB Richard Sherman, a stormy forecast, and the 12th man in full form, the Saints pre-game woes are made worse by the impending return of WR Percy Harvin. This is an unprecedented nightmare for a team; a superstar returning for the playoffs after only one game with a new team.

That's the thing though, these are pre-game woes. Coach Sean Payton and the Saints will be heavy underdogs but they are coming off the first playoff road victory in franchise history, their backs are against the wall with a talented roster and a future Hall Of Fame rin Drew Brees.

KEYS FOR NO: The pundits are ablaze about the Saints defense and ability to run the ball in the Wildcard game but let's be real here, because this is a place to be real, Drew Brees will need a career-defining masterpiece to pull this one out.

KEYS FOR IND: Seattle will need to move the ball on offense. They have struggled to do so since November. Lynch and WR Golden Tate looked pretty worn down by the end of the season. The week of rest and addition of Harvin (even in a diversionary role) should help get the chains moving.

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) @ New England Patriots (12-4)

The bad blood between New England & Indianapolis didn't just magically vanish when Peyton took to the hills of Denver. The Colts and Patriots fans still bear the scars and grudges from 10+ years battling at the top of the AFC.

The rising stock of QB Andrew Luck makes this game interesting. QB Tom Brady won't be around to duel Luck for a decade, but for this game it is on. Luck is clearly the heir to Peyton, a once-in-a-generation prospect drafted by Indianapolis #1 overall. Like Peyton, he still goes into New England as an underdog no matter his previous heroic, awards or statistics. The ever-present reason for that; Tom Brady and Coach Bill Bellicheck.

There is more to the game than quarterbacks of course. Both teams have lost crucial offensive skill players and defensive cogs.

The Patriots have waited patiently while their young WRs acclimated to the NFL and their running backs have dealt with fumbling issues. Even after multiple key defensive injuries, New England holds the #2 seed in the AFC. It's just the Patriot way.

For the Colts, RB Trent Richardson has struggled after the blockbuster trade from the Browns in Week 3. LB Robert Mathis has enjoyed a late career surge.

KEYS FOR IND: The Patriots have a long history of taking away a team's top weapon. That weapon for the Colts is an emerging WR T.Y Hilton. The task will be to Luck and Coach Chuck Pagano to get the ball effectively to Hilton. If not, will another skill player step up?

KEYS FOR NE: RB Lagarette Blount and RB Shane Vareen need to keep that clock moving. The Colts D has already played poorly enough to eliminate themselves once in this playoffs, the Patriots want to keep that D reeling and on the field.

San Francisco 49ers (13-4) @ Carolina Panthers (12-4)

Two 'New Age' Quarterbacks. Young, fast, and sleek with rocket arms and massive fame. Two 'Old School' defenses with strong front sevens, vicious pass rushers and roaming linebackers.

While both teams boast strong running games and opportunistic passing games, these are two frightening defenses that had great seasons. For the Panthers, LB Luke Kuchely should be DPOY while the 49ers boast one of the top Linebacking cores ever; LB Patrick Willis, LB Navarro Bowman and LB Aldon Smith. On the line, while San Francisco has wiley old DT Justin Smith, Carolina has beasts up front DE Greg Hardy and DE Charles Johnson to supply the pressure and DT Star Lotuleli plus the middle. I list these names to illustrate the power that will be on the field Sunday, all these players are current, former or likely future All-Pros.

So what kind of game will this be? Will it be similar to the 10-9 thump-fest from Week 10? Or will these defenses and running games cancel each other out and put it on the arms of QB Cam Newton and QB Colin Kaepernick?

KEYS FOR SF: In week 10, Kaepernick was awful. This time he will have WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis and a hot hand. That passing game needs to get off the ground.

KEYS FOR CAR: Riverboat Ron, Coach Ron Rivera needs to stay aggressive. These 49ers have been clutch in their last three games (Falcons: pick-6 to win, Cardinals: FG drive in final 0:25 of game, and last week's games in Green Bay). The Panthers have no playoff experience, with Cam playing in his first playoff game, they don't want this coming down to the wire.

San Diego Chargers (10-7) @ Denver Broncos (13-3)

The Chargers trek up to the mountains after a conservative dismantling of Cincinnati last week. Fresh in their minds is their Week 15 win at Mile High Stadium in which QB Peyton Manning looked human and WR Keenan Allen lit up the Denver D and entered his name onto the Rookie of the Year ballots.

It has been well documented, the struggles of Peyton Manning in the playoffs. With every MVP award (he is a lock for his 5th MVP this season) the pressure mounts on him to improve  his 9-11 overall record in the playoffs, to add to his one title. Amazingly, after his 55-touchdown (NFL all-time record), 5,477 yard (NFL all-time record) season, it would be a legacy-defining loss to go one-and-out in the playoffs. It would justify the entire narrative. It is a strange place, this sports media world.

KEYS FOR SD: A replay of the Thursday Night game in Denver is unlikely, especially without Allen and RB Ryan Matthews at full health. I hate for every single 'key' to be the Quarterback play but… I'm sorry, it's true. QB Phillip Rivers has had a great season and will look to shock the world, or at least Denver.

KEYS FOR DEN: I would say the offense with the most points and yards in the history of the NFL can be relied on for some scores but to avoid the disaster that was last year's divisional loss, the defense will need to be decent. Not great, not championship-caliber even, just decent.

Monday, January 6, 2014

Sunday 1/5/14 (Wildcard)

San Diego Chargers, 27 Cincinnati Bengals, 10

The Team of Destiny moves on. The San Diego Chargers inexplicably keep the 'Eagles Home Opener' theory alive. The Chargers, a team that needed to win their final two games and for Baltimore and Miami to lose their final two to gain the sixth seed. They were rewarded with a trip to Cincinnati where the hosting Bengals were 8-0… until tonight. Do the Chargers have that look and that feel of destiny? Or was this a darker destiny, the Bengals playoff destiny. Coach Marvin Lewis drops to 0-5 and the Bengals add another year to their 23 year drought.

The 'Eagles Home Opener' theory is fairly the self-explanatory, the team that plays against the Eagles for the first regular season game in Philadelphia… wins the Super Bowl. The 2009 Saints, 2010 Packers, the 2011 Giants, the 2012 Ravens and… the 2013 Chargers. Stands up to scrutiny for me.

So that's the why, but how?

The answer is simple. Cincinnati turnovers. Turnovers of the most inexplicable and frightening variety. Terrible throws, rookie fumbles inside the 5, the Bengals are now 0-3 in the playoffs under QB Andy Dalton's watch, he played awful a 3rd year in a row. Meanwhile, San Diego played efficiently and effectively the entire game.

KEY PLAY: San Diego let Cincinnati beat themselves, 0-4 turnover ratio. Besides two horrendous decision interceptions from Dalton, the key plays were RB Giovoni Bernard's fumble on the 2 yard line and Andy Dalton's inexcusable head first fumble, in which he fumbled, un-touched, into the waiting arms of S Jahleel Addae.

MVP: Perhaps the MVP of this game should just be the entire Chargers running game. The combo of RB Ryan Matthews and RB Danny Woodhead (and a big final punch from RB Ronnie Brown) converted the Bengals mistakes into a win.

San Francisco 49ers, 23 Green Bay Packers, 20

The 49ers and Packers provided the main event to cap an exciting Wild Card Weekend. In 5 degree weather, these two historically successful and currently superstar laden teams played a great game on the frozen tundra in Green Bay.

Frozen tundra is no exaggeration either, the grass was dead, brown, kicked up, and too cold to turn to mud.

QB Colin Kaepernick and QB Aaron Rodgers were still efficient. Kaepernick utilized WR Michael Crabtree and a workhorse, thankless pounding by RB Frank Gore to take what they could get and win the field position battle. Rodgers, fresh off a broken collarbone, showed gut and grit overcoming a slow start (6 total offensive yards in the 1st quarter) and making plays outside the pocket. Not insignificant was the electrifying style of RB Eddie Lacy who picked up many key first downs against the formidable San Francisco front 7.

The offenses moved the ball well, but slowly. The defenses were not overwhelmed. We entered the 4th quarter tied 13-10. The 4th quarter was a classic, Rodgers and Kaepernick traded touchdowns, then traded long, late 4th quarter drives for field goals. San Francisco ended up in the right spot.

KEY PLAY: On said final drive, Colin Kaepernick threw what was easily the worst decision of the wild card weekend, a short pass gift-wrapped to CB Micah Hyde who failed to haul it in. The drive was kept alive and capped with K Phil Dawson's field goal. The kick actually went between the arms CB Davon House. A pair of fortunate events for San Francisco, and what playoff football is all about.

MVP: Colin Kaepernick, though he almost blew the game, he is also the only QB in the league who could have gotten to the outside for the key 3rd down conversion, a 17 yard run to midfield. That performance cannot be over-looked even by this Seahawks fan.

Sunday, January 5, 2014

Saturday 1/4/14 (Wildcard)

Indianapolis Colts, 45 Kansas City Chiefs, 44

I would chalk up the 89 point, 1,049 yard shoot-out as a genuine surprise. Everyone was surprised when the Chiefs took a 28 point lead without RB Jamaal Charles, and everyone was surprised again when QB Andrew Luck erased that lead and won the game by 1 point. Truly, I would characterize the entire game as 'surprising' and leave it at that.

The Chiefs lost Jamaal Charles to a concussion on the first drive of the game, but Alex Smith took to the air aggressively, hitting a 63-yard knife to WR Dwayne Bowe and a 79 yard bomb to WR Donnie Avery. RB Knile Davis, though injured in the 4th quarter, ran well. Kansas City QB Alex Smith also ran hard, improvised well, completing two improbable shovel passes when protection broke down including a 5 yard TD to help the Chiefs to a 31-10 lead at half.

Down 21 points, Andrew Luck did not spark a revolution right away. The first play of the 2nd half was intercepted, followed quickly by a Smith-to-Kniles capitalization. The score was a bleak 38-10 against the home team. But Andrew Luck continued to fire and WR TY Hilton, as he had on the first drive of the game, ran free. Hilton would finish the day with 13 catches for 224 yards.

It was still a bumpy road, after two Colts TDs brought it to 38-24, Luck again was intercepted. If there's credit to go defense in this game it's to Indianapolis' D for holding the Chiefs to a field goal after the interception and DE Robert Mathis forcing a fumble to help the Colts cut the lead even further. By this point, Luck, Hilton and RB Donald Brown were so hot the comeback seemed a foregone conclusion, culminating in a 64 yard go ahead strike to who else but TY Hilton.

KEY PLAY - Disaster and Glory literally hung in the air on a 2nd and goal when Donald Brown was stripped by S Eric Berry, the Chiefs seemed poised to recover the floating fumble into the backfield and preserve their 10-point lead (41-31 at that point). Inexplicably Andrew Luck was able to cut back, recover, and advance the ball diving through the middle for a touchdown.

MVP: Andrew Luck became a superstar today.

New Orleans Saints, 26 Philadelphia Eagles, 24

After the offensive fireworks we saw in the first game it was startling to see the Eagles and Saints much-maligned defenses bully and batter the highly-touted, high-powered opposing offenses. The first quarter was scoreless and the half ended with the Eagles up 7-6. For the Saints, DE Cameron Jordon made plays including an 11-yard sack for a loss that took the Eagles out of the red zone and led to a missed field goal. For the Eagles, two key interceptions and hard hitting play out of the line backing code provided the bite needed to tame QB Drew Brees.

In the 2nd half, the Saints offense was able to click into gear, taking their first two drives of the half for 7 points. The Eagles came to life when injuries to Saints secondary truly left WR DeSean Jackson all alone out there, lanes opened for RB LeSean McCoy and QB Nick Foles found a rhythm after a shaky first half. The Eagles took the lead with a masterful late 4th quarter drive highlighted by a desperate pass interference penalty on a streaking DeSean Jackson.

The Eagles left 4:58 on the clock, gave up a good return to RB Darren Sproles, and the "soft, dome sweet dome" Saints pounded the ball in the cold with RB Mark Ingram and RB Khiry Robinson, gaining ground and killing time. K Shayne Graham's 32-yard field goal sealed it.

KEY PLAY: The final drive was highlighted by a 13-yard run by RB Khiry Robinson, after the defensive struggle of the first half, and the quick strike offensive drives in the 2nd half, the game came down pure ground-and-pound. This was the play that broke Philadelphia's back.

MVP: RB Mark Ingram ran hard, gaining 114 total yards, many after contact. The former Hesiman winner had been criticized heavily, even by the New Orleans fan base, but he showed heart and was the reason the Saints were able to win without a Herculean effort from Drew Brees.

Friday, January 3, 2014

Wildcard Weekend 2014

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) @ Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

Every team is happy to make the playoffs but the city of Kansas City has a decent argument as the happiest. Last year, despite 6 Pro-Bowlers including superstar RB Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs finished with the worst record in the NFL at 2-14.

QB Alex Smith and Coach Andy Reid, cast-offs from San Francisco and Philadelphia, respectively, have been the pieces to turn things around. Critics point out that most of Kansas City's 11 wins have come from lesser opponents, more optimistic types point out that having 11 inferior opponents is progress, in itself.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis has been a roller-coaster. In the first 6 weeks, they announced themselves with impressive victories against the top 3 teams in the league (San Francisco and both eventual #1 seeds, Seattle and Denver) but once they lost WR Reggie Wayne, they were dominated by St. Louis, Arizona, and Cincinnati. Pulling out of their downward spiral, QB Andrew Luck has found a rhythm, and put together a nice winning streak to end the season, including a 23-7 drubbing of Kansas City in Arrowhead just two weeks ago.

KEYS FOR KC: The Chiefs started the year as the league's most dominant defense but has had injury concerns later in the year. LB Justin Houston, LB Tamba Hali (both questionable) will need to return to early season form for Kanas City to make a dent in the playoffs. Will that frightening Chiefs D, LB Derrick Johnson, S Eric Berry, frighten?

KEYS FOR IND: The Colts dark times adjusting without Wayne are over, but now the skill position players around Luck must take another step forward, be it traded-over Brown RB Trent Richardson, RB Donald Brown, or WR TY Hilton. Somebody needs to make a name for themselves in the playoffs.

New Orleans Saints (11-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

The over-arching story for Phildelphia has been the emergence of QB Nick Foles. Taking over in week 6, Foles had one obligatory dud in Dallas, 80 yards and 0 TDs. Since then, he firmly grabbed the starting job from oft-injured QB Michael Vick. Foles threw 19 TDs before throwing his first interception in a genuine blizzard. He finished with 27 TDs and 2 INTs, leading a dynamic offense that has returned RB LeSean McCoy to a superstar, and WR DeSean Jackson to one of the league's top playmakers. In his first year Coach Chip Kelly can already boast a top offense in the NFL.

Of course, there is an accomplished offense on the other sidelines as well. QB Drew Brees is still among the best, especially at home. However, when the Superdome Superman Saints have traveled this season, they have done so with their Clark Kent glasses, going 3-5. The Saints have also not won a playoff road game, going 0-3 in recent history.

While these are sensational statistics, here is another; the Saints are 35-29 on the road in the Brees/Payton era (since 2006). Hardly an easy-out. Brees has been fiery in press conferences when questioned about the supposed 'road problem', this is a scary man to fuel.

KEYS FOR PHI: Philadelphia's defense is in a tough  position because of their fast-paced offensive counterparts. Preventing big plays out of WR Jimmy Graham, RB Darren Sproles and WR Marques Colston is no easy task, and they will be on the field a lot. The Eagles D will be exposed. They need to bite back.

KEYS FOR NO: The Saints are thin on D as well, though improved from 2012, the Eagles can't be too displeased with the card they drew in the first round. Maybe we are taking these amazing offense for granted, but they are going to score points, the key for New Orleans also will be the need for defensive playmakers to step up.

San Diego Chargers (9-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)

San Diego's playoff hopes were kept alive by a convincing defeat of the record-setting Denver Broncos, followed with a shockingly unconvincing defeat of the 2nd-string Kanas City Chiefs. The Bengals needed help in OT from the referees and a fortunate missed field goal. Only the Chargers would get into the playoffs this way, QB Philip Rivers has re-emerged, while rookie WR Keenan Allen and RB Ryan Matthews have both made names for themselves.

The Bengals have been penciled in as the 3rd seed for some time now. QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J Green received a playmaking boost adding rookie RB Giovoni Bernard. The defense is just as good as it has been for the last 3-4 years and in Week 17 they dashed the dreams of the defending Super Bowl Champs, Ravens. Now, the Bengals have a home game against a 6th seed that needed buckets of help to get into the playoffs at all.

Doubt remains, not only have the Bengals not won a playoff game since 1991, these 2013 Bengals have under-performed in big spots, while the Chargers have inexplicably risen to high occasions. This will be a much better game than suggested. A pair of true wild cards, Rivers and Dalton, lead the charge/

KEYS FOR SD: San Diego rises and falls with their stars, Rivers obviously but good performances out of Keenan Allen, and S Eric Weddle will go a long way.

KEYS FOR CIN: Dalton threw 4 interceptions to Baltimore, practically giving the game away multiple times but the Bengals were the superior team. That kind of thing won't fly in the playoffs. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovoni Bernard can help out a lot.

San Francisco 49ers (12-4) @ Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)

On this date one year ago, Packers fans gave no ill thought to QB Colin Kaepernick. One year later, he sits perched on a potential three-pack of pain inflicted upon Green Bay. In the Divisional Round last year, Kaepernick became a star with one of the most overwhelming performances in playoff history. Week 1 of this season, Kaepernick logged a 412-yard, 3 TD performance to start the Packers on the wrong foot this season, and down a wobbly path. The ire of Green Bay fans will boil to new levels if San Francisco can complete this three-peat.

San Francisco has won 4 more games, and has been generally more impressive. Howevert, the two previous meetings were in comfortable, habitable San Francisco. Whereas this game will be on the frozen tundra of Green Bay. The weatherspeople have been predicting record low temperatures and the sportspeople have been predicting the effects. It's likely that the cold will benefit Green Bay, a break that evens the playing field.

KEYS FOR SF: San Francisco need only to avoid pitfalls of playing on the road, or on the cold, because they have the better team.

KEYS FOR GB: The Green Bay offense will need to click. While the heroics of returning stars QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Randall Cobb defeated the Bears dramatically to enter the playoffs, the rest of the game was mediocre at best. The Bears don't possess a defense anywhere near the same class as the 49ers. If Rodgers clicks back to Rodgers-form, the Packers have a shot.]

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

The Farewell 20 (2013)

Every season (this being the fourth) I take a little time to remember the fallen 20 that we won't be talking about for the next month. A quick look at our long lost and departed teams. Fear not, they shall return for the NFL draft. Pick #1? Houston Texans!

AFC

MIAMI DOLPHINS (8-8)
QB Ryan Tannehill showed promise, especially considering it was behind one of the worst O-line performances of all-time, 51 sacks allowed only begins to describe. The Martin/Incognito bullying & legal drama left Miami without 2 starters, It is one of the most bizzarre distractions a team has ever faced. The Dolphins still competed for the playoffs until losses in week 16 and 17.

BUFFALO BILLS (6-10)
Another promising Buffalo Bills season has faltered and past. While QB E.J Manuel showed potential between injuries, RB C.J Spiller failed to live up to the hype. DE Mario Williams and a solid D-line have been decent, but the previously formidable Buffalo secondary was set back with injuries and under-performance. Buffalo yet again could not get things to click.

NEW YORK JETS (8-8)
It was a genuine surprise that Coach Rex Ryan was able to get some big wins out of this team. Rookie DT Sheldon Richardson is a monster inside and the D played as decent as it could. The offense ebbed and flowed with rookie QB Geno Smith's inconsistency with, in my estimation, the worst skill position players in the NFL. Hey, not every single rookie QB can come out firing in year #1.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (4-12)
You know, I sit here and I wonder why are the Browns again a bottom-dwelling NFL team. Two offensive stars bloomed in Cleveland this year (WR Josh Gordon and TE Jordon Cameran) and the defense has been good for a few years now. The answer seems to lie in dreadfully poor QB play (after promising QB Brian Hoyer went down in week 5) and a poor front office.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-8)
Another down year for the Steelers starting 0-4 and predictable age creeping in on defense. Still, an influx in younger talent is coming on defense and on offense. RB Le'Veon Bell has promise, WR Antonio Brown has reached his potential. The 2013 Steelers were a strange combination of young players finding their feet and old players losing a step.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-12)
A nice little quirk of the NFL is when the historically bad team turns tough spoiler. I do not see this in many other sports. Just lke the 2010 Bills and alongside this year Bucs, Coach Gus Bradley came out of the dust of QB Blaine Gabbert's 481 yards, 1 TD and 7 INT in his career-ending 3 games. The Jags put together some nice wins to foster some of that beautiful thing called hope.

TENNESSEE TITANS (7-9)
The most un-heladed and un-hyped team in the league (now that the Seahawks are on the national map) did little to garner attention. CB Alturon Verner and WR Kendall Wright emerged while RB Chris Johnson and WR Kenny Britt lost their luster. QB Jake Locker went down and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Titans to a very Bills-esque season. Will the Titans hang their hat on Locker from here?

HOUSTON TEXANS (2-14)
Even with a roster of All-Pros and playoff experience over the last two seasons, the Texans lost their balance and tumbled. Houston started 2-0 and lost 14 straight, firing Coach Gary Kubiack, benching Matt "pick-6" Schaub, even losing twice to the previously 0-8 Jaguars. The tumble remains unexplained, that's the NFL.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (4-12)
While QB Terelle Pryor and QB Matt McGloin showed flashes of competency, the Raiders seriously lack depth and talent everywhere else. A result of the late Al Davis' easy trigger in trading away draft picks. They are finally getting some full drafts on the horizon, and the depth of the team should improve.


NFC

NEW YORK GIANTS (7-9)
QB Eli Manning any former Super Bowl winning QB has ever had. Viewing some of his dreadful, almost sad, performances was literally painful. While the interceptions piled up because the running game didn't exist, the defense actually collected itself in front of S Antrell Rolle, after acquiring LB Jon Beason and turned in a solid year.

DALLAS COWBOYS (8-8)
I've read one hundred 'It's not Tony Romo's fault" articles. The strange joke is that these articles outnumber the 'Blame Romo' at least 50 to 1. QB Tony Romo was fine, he's exactly what he is, an 8-8 quarterback with or without talent. He has had talent, WR Dez Bryant is emerging into the game's next best WR and RB DeMarcco Murray had a great year but again the defense was historically awful and Romo threw all the interceptions at all the wrong times. It's not blaming Romo, it's just what happened.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-13)
QB Robert Griffin III was the ESPN 'heel' this year, Cam Newton, Jay Cutler and Michael Vick have previously played the part. RG3 and Coach Mike Shanahan never got on the same page this season. It didn't help that the Redskins defense was surprisingly one of the league's worst.


DETROIT LIONS (7-9)
The Lions continue to under-achieve. In a season that Cutler and Rodgers from the Bears and Packers both missed signifigant time, the Lions were poised to take the NFC North. Instead QB Matthew Stafford's mechanics broke down, he was awful down the stretch despite RB Reggie Bush and RB Joqiue Bell producing. They lost 6 of their last 7 and finished 3rd in the NFC North.

CHICAGO BEARS (8-8)
Finally, Chicago has a genuine offense. There is no question this is the best offense Chicago has ever had. The emergence of WR Alshon Jeffery alongside WR Brandon Marshall is exciting for the Bears. RB Matt Forte was dynamic yet again. And wouldn't you know it? Suddenly, the Bears defense is awful! The Bears could not stop the run, 32nd in the league in rushing defense.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-12)
A misreble 0-8 start with a handful of very close losses. The Buccaneers defense is finally coming around behind DT Gerald McCoy, LB Lavonnte David and CB Darrelle Revis. In the 2nd part of the season, the Bucs could ran the ball well despite being down to their 3rd-string RB. QB Mike Glennon stepped in after QB Josh Freeman was traded in week 5. It was chaos in Tampa Bay this year.

ATLANTA FALCONS (4-12)
For the sake of symmetry with the Houston Texans in the AFC, the Falcons collapsed from Super Bowl contender to bottom-dweller with much the same roster as had made them playoff perennials in the last few years. The Falcons dealt with injuries at WR and RB and without marquee skill players, the offensive line, defense, special teams all fell way short.

ST LOUIS RAMS (7-9)
After the injury to QB Sam Bradford it became clear, 2013 would be another rebuilding year for St. Louis. A promising rebuilding year tough with CB Janoris Jenkins, WR Tavon Austin and especially 19-sack DE Robert Quinn showing flashes of cornerstrone-ability. The Rams will have two top 10 picks in this year's draft, again positioned well to rebuild.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (10-6)
Arizona has perked up. The defense with DT Calais Campbell and CB Patrick Peterson is big, strong and hard to run against. QB Carson Palmer did the best he could and got things moving a little bit. RB Andre Ellington provided a spark, WR Larry Fitzgerald returned to relevance. Arizona narrowly missed the playoffs, and like the Rams, look positioned well to rebuild and create a seriously scary NFC West.