Saturday 1/14/17 (Divisional)

Atlanta Falcons, 36 Seattle Seahawks, 20

QB Russell Wilson and the Seahawks put some fear into Atlanta fans when they took the opening drive 90 yards in 14 plays culminating in a pylon TD to former Saint and Falcon-killer TE Jimmy Graham. QB Matt Ryan and that Falcons offense shed the "regular-season-only" asterisk on the responding drive, a 13-play 90-yard drive finishing with a pick-play screen to WR Julio Jones.

Twin 90-yard drives to start the Divisional round, the 3rd drive of the game started with 1 minute gone from the 2nd quarter.

Later in the 2nd, the Seahawks were holding ground 10-7 and forced a Falcons punt. KR Devin Hester appeared to play spoiler to his former team with a stunning 70-yard punt return to the 8-yard line but a back-breaking holding call on Seattle (strangely at the line scrimmage) reversed field position 85 yards. The Seahawks never recovered from that. The next play, a rookie LG stepped on Russell Wilson's foot and he fell back into the end zone for a safety. Matt Ryan took the two remaining drives of the half for 10 points and continued to pour on in the 2nd half - touchdowns to RB Tevin Coleman, RB Davonta Freeman and WR Mohamed Sanu.

The Seahawks mounted some furious scenario comebacks, including a surprisingly quick response to the final Sanu touchdown (Hester 78 yard kickoff return, next play a 31-yard dime to WR Doug Baldwin) but it was never enough. Atlanta's offense would have won this game in any scenario, they were simply unstoppable.

MVP : QB Matt Ryan (338 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT) is spreading the ball, making good decisions and crushing teams against the blitz. He wields his arsenal of dangerous WRs, versatile RBs and random TEs with incredible skill. The 2016 Falcons offense is two big games away from cementing themselves as a dark horse candidate in the conversation for Best Offense All-Time.

New England Patriots, 34 Houston Texans, 16

Tom Brady's 23rd playoff win comes at the expense of the Houston Texans. The Patriots continue to roll through the AFC on their way to their 6th-straight AFC Championship. Not only is that a record but it's not even the most successful stretch of the Belichick/Brady regime (2001-2004 three Super Bowl wins). WR Julian Edelman had 135 yards and RB Dion Lewis took the role of patented patriot patriot performer with a rushing TD, receiving TD and a kickoff return TD.

The Texans were fortunate to make this somewhat of a game in the first half. QB Brock Osweiler's incompetence was masked by two Patriot turnovers in their own territory in the 2nd quarter, one of which Osweiler managed to score. Going into half only down 13-17 and the Texans defense holding it's ground was promising, but ultimately just turnover smoke and field goal mirrors.

WR DeAndre Hopkins would have a big game with an NFL QB throwing the ball, RB Lamar Miller fought hard for yardage. The greatest irony of all is that Osweiler's best pass of the night- a majestic over the shoulder deep shot to rookie WR Will Fuller V was dropped in the end zone. Osweiler-haters will say karma for all his missed throws but that would have made the game interesting at 20-24. Instead it evolved into another blowout, the NFL playoffs now a perfect 6/6 the home team wins by 10+. We have yet to see a meaningful 4th quarter playoff drive.

MVP : RB Dion Lewis was electric and unstable, fun to watch- he sparked for a kickoff return int he 1st quarter, had an extremely large role in the offense and made Texans' miss. He also fumbled three times, one ruled down, one lost, and one recovered by an O-lineman. 3 TDs speak for themselves, bonus points for creating at least a glimmer of captivating television!

Divisional Weekend 2017

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons

Five years ago, rookie QB Russell Wilson stepped off the Georgia Dome field feeling deflated after an amazing 2nd half comeback was nullified by QB Matt Ryan in the 2012 Divisional Round. But as he walked into the locker room, Wilson said he felt a strong sense of excitement for the team's future. The Seahawks have been the top dog of the NFC ever since while Ryan and the Falcons hit rock bottom with a 4-12 2013 season and have clawed back up to relevance this year under 2nd-year coach Kyle Shanahan.

The Falcons have had one of the greatest offensive seasons of all time, All-Pro WR Julio Jones is obviously a crucial piece but the truly unstoppable aspect has been the twin versatilities of RBs DaVonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. It is a classic narrative of unstoppable force (Atlanta O) versus an immovable object (Seattle D) but hampered by the Earl Thomas injury and Atlanta's home field advantage. The Seahawks come in as underdogs in the playoffs for the first time since that 2012 match-up.

KEYS FOR SEA : With the best defense left in the NFC playoffs (GB, DAL and ATL all have suspect units on D), the Seahawks are in a position for dark horse NFC Champion. However, QB Russell Wilson will need to catch fire on the road. The duds of Week 12 in Tampa Bay (150 yards of mostly garbage passing) and Week 14 in Green Bay (5 INT) loom large. For all we hear about RB Thomas Rawls because of last week, it is all on Wilson.

KEYS FOR ATL : An early lead. The upset script for this game is that Seattle's rushing attack is truly back and the Atlanta offense is on the sideline watching Seattle rush for first downs. Nothing about Atlanta's defense is scary... except pass rusher Vic Beasley. If Seattle is down, and force to throw, Beasley and the Atlanta pass rushers could wreak havoc on Seattle's terrible O-line.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

Well, here we are again with another Texans visit the Patriots snooze-fest. I would love this to be a good game, I do want Saturday Night Football to be fun, but the Texans are pretenders amongst the Top 8 here. Brock Osweiler is a joke, and the defense has not shown greatness yet. Brian Cushing, Jadaveon Clowney & Co are jumping from a 1st-start rookie to a 200+ win, 4-time Super Bowl champion.

Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck win Divisional playoff games, it's what they do (10-2 in this round!) If they win, they will have advanced to 6 straight AFC Championships. That's insane! And who does the AFC offer as competition on this excellent weekend of Top 8 football? The 29th-ranked offense?

KEYS FOR HOU : I look forward to when Tom Brady retires so I can stop writing about this, but the key to defeating the Patriots is the pass rush. The Texans are certainly well-stacked in that area, so an upset is not impossible. Even without 3-time DPOY J.J Watt, Houston boasts an imposing pass rushing duo in DE Jadeveon Clowney and DE Whitney Mercilus.

KEYS FOR NE : The Patriots are an enigma at the skill positions, who will explode for a monster game? They lost Gronk this season but there's a lot of un-tapped potential within RB Dion Lewis, TE Marcellus Bennett and in-season acquisition WR Michael Floyd. There's still RBs LaGarrette Blount and James White, WRs Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. The big performance is a Patented Patriot Playoff Requirement, who will it be?

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

The new Dallas triplets, QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliot and WR Dez Bryant, have enjoyed a charmed season. Similar to the original Aikman/Smith/Irvin triplets they have benefited from a massive and overwhelming offensive line. T Tyron Smith, G Zack Martin and C Travis Frederick are all in serious conversation as top in the NFL at their respective positions. Talented, young skill position players and an incredible O-line in Dallas. It's a familiar recipe and it works.

But Prescott and Elliot are rookies after all, they cannot afford mistakes against the red-hot QB Aaron Rodgers. We have seen what getting hot in January can mean for mid-tier QBs like Joe Flacco and Eli Manning, what does it mean for Aaron Rodgers? Playing without Jordy is tough, but the Dallas D is much worse than the Giants'.

KEYS FOR GB : Elevated WR play. WR DaVante Adams has not been great when placed into the WR1 or WR2 role, Randall Cobb is mostly out of the slot so the Packers are hoping WR Geronimo Allison can pull some Jordy Nelson magic with Aaron Rodgers.

KEYS FOR DAL : Keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline, duh. The Cowboys big O-line and Rookie Of the Year RB Ezekiel Elliot can make all the Rodgers talk moot with long, sustained scoring drives.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs

The game has been moved to 5pm because of an impending Ice Storm. Yes, it's playoff time and KC/PIT is a treat. We have the hard-nosed traditions of these rich franchises but also a varied sparkling array of playmakers; RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown for the Steelers, TE Travis Kelce and shiny new toy WR Tyreek Hill for the Chiefs.

The potential of both teams is being realized before our very eyes, the Steelers have Brown & Bell healthy at the same time and the young defense no longer a liability. The Chiefs have kept the defense arrowhead sharp and have finally received some form of consistent playmaking around conservative QB Alex Smith. This is a great match-up.

KEYS FOR PIT : LB Bud Dupree and the young talented pieces of the Molten Steel Curtain need to begin to solidify, consistency is key because the big plays are how Kansas City kills you. QB Ben Rothlisberger may be heading a Super Bowl contender but has not looked like his old self, injuries and age possibly catching up. The freezing cold weather could make this a low-scoring game, consistency is needed on D.

KEYS FOR KC : The Chiefs are missing their top LB Derrick Johnson so it's up to DEs Justin Houston and Dee Ford with DT Dontari Poe to create chaos amongst Pittsburgh's healthy O-line. If they can win that battle, the Chiefs have the talent in the secondary (CB Marcus Peters, S Eric Berry) to battle with Pittsburgh's elite offensive weapons.

Sunday 1/8/17 (Wildcard)

Pittsburgh Steelers, 30 Miami Dolphins, 12

The promising pieces of Pittsburgh have clicked. The offense thrived by getting the ball into the hands of RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown behind a healthy offensive line. 

On defense, while this is no Steel Curtain, strong linebacker play in Pittsburgh continues to be a tradition-  LB Bud Dupree, LB Ryan Shazier and the ageless warrior LB James Harrison turned in strong performances. Dolphins QB Matt Moore gave a tough, valiant effort but was never equipped for this type of beat-down, or this type of shoot-out. 

The spark of Bell and Brown was just too much. Brown turned two short passes into 100+ yards and 2 TDS in the first quarter and after Bell's touchdown put them up 21-3, the sideline started to feel awful cold for poor Miami who practice all week in Florida. After Brown's early touchdowns, the game never felt in doubt. 

The Dolphins never quite got their stars going. WR Jarvis Landry was fed the ball but couldn't break the big play and RB Jay Ajayi, who torched Pittsburgh for 203 yards in Week 7, ran for only 33 yards before being injured in the 4th quarter. 

MVP: RB Le'Veon Bell. With Rothlisberger still groggy, the Steelers turned to defense and the graceful patience/explosive decisiveness of Le'Veon Bell. The highlight was a 10-play, 83 yard drive ending in 1 yard TD for Bell to go up 21-3. All 10 plays were handoffs to LeVeon Bell, that's simply amazing. He finished with 167 yards on 29 carries. 

Green Bay Packers, 38 New York Giants, 13

The Giants dominated the first quarter but because of drops by WR Odell Beckham Jr and rookie WR Sterling Shepard, they were only up 6-0. The Giants D held the red-hot Aaron Rodgers offense to 7 yards. Unfortunately for New York, the Giants D looked shakier and shakier with some tough injuries. It culminated in a disastrous final 2 minutes of the half : A Rodgers touchdown to WR DaVante Adams, an Eli Manning fumble forced by LB Clay Matthews, and the Rodgers Hail Mary with 0:00 to play. The highlight of the weekend: An amazing, high arcing throw that landed comfortably to WR Randall Cobb at the very back line of the end zone. 

Some may recall Eli's hail mary to end the half against Green Bay in the 2011 playoffs. In 2017, Rodgers finally got his revenge. After a solid half of play, how could the Giants have went into the locker room down 14-6?

Mid-3rd quarter, Packers coach Mike McCarthy appeared to hand the momentum back to New York. On 4th-and-1 at their own 42 the Packers handed off RB/WR Ty Montgomery who was stopped by S Landon Collins (who also made the key 3rd down stop). Two plays later, Eli Manning put an exclamation point with a 41 yard pass to WR Tavarres King.  14-13

Ok, after a weekend of wildcard duds- we are finally getting a GAME - two Super Bowl winning QBs dueling in the wildcard round - let's do this!

Well, to the disappointment and befuddlement of the NFL audience, Eli Manning and the Giants offense hardly threatened to cross mid-field for the rest of the game. Meanwhile, Rodgers & the Packers responded directly with another touchdown to Randall Cobb, added a field goal, then a 3rd touchdown to Randall Cobb. Only 7 minutes of game-play after the Manning-to-King game-maker, it was 31-13 with 9 minutes in the 4th. Another dud in a weekend of duds. 

MVP : QB Aaron Rodgers shook off a 7-yard 1st quarter to finish 362 yards and 4 TDs with 0 INTs. With Rodgers playing like that, the Giants never had a chance. Even with WR Jordy Nelson out with a rib injury in the 1st half, Rodgers continued to prove why he is one of the best players in the league. Special shout-outs to the LT David Bakhtiari and RT Brian Beluga who helped provide some surreal pockets for Rodgers all game.

Saturday 1/7/17 (Wildcard)

Houston Texans, 27 Oakland Raiders, 14

Connor Cook's first NFL start, a postseason matchup on the road against a top 3 defense went as well as you'd think that could go. There was some garbage time stat padding, 122 of Cook's 161 yards were in the 4th quarter when the game was out of reach. Make no mistake, the Raiders were not an NFL offense this Saturday. Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Latavius Murray were invisible without Derek Carr and two Pro Bowl O-linemen also missing time. The blind optimism that the Raiders were anything but decapitated was extinguished before halftime.

By comparison, it may appear Brock Osweiler had a great game. Okay, but not great. Osweiler has been so bad this year that so routine completions were raising eyebrows, hey- maybe he can complete a pass. It also helped that Oakland's suffering offense provided endless quarters for second chances at the Wildcard Arcade. It's nice that Brock had a highlight sideline throw to WR DeAndre Hopkins but there were also consistently blown opportunities, missed throws and for a 6'8 gargantuan in the pocket- why are there so many balls batted down at the line?

It was a miserably hopeless wildcard kickoff, the Raiders hopes were in the hands of the their defense which has been their greatness weakness all season. RB Lamar Miller was able to punch a TD in, WR DeAndre Hopkins caught a short slant. The Texans were dead last in Touchdowns this season, it was nice for Houston to see those two big names celebrating in the end zone.

MVP : The Texans defense did what they had to do, they dominated. Jadaveon Clowney, with JJ Watt cheering on the sideline, was the undisputed highlight. Clowney was moved all over the line- his highlight was reading a screen, tipping the ball, and making the interception to set up the aforementioned Miller TD.

Seattle Seahawks, 26 Detroit Lions, 6

The Lions have had the "indoor team with an outdoor mentality" mantra going for 2-3 years now. In retrospect, doesn't it just seem so obvious that those declarations of strength were giving away precisely the team's weakness? Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and the Lions WRs did not show up to help Matt Stafford. Clearly, Stafford never felt right after his week 14 finger injury. Against the Seahawks, the Lions never threatened the end zone.

The Seahawks flashed their old formula - run it with a feature back (Thomas Rawls) and play great defense. These were two things were not a given without S Earl Thomas and the way the 2016 Seahawks have run the ball. Without a consistently healthy running back or a healthy Wilson, the Seahawks averaged under 100 yards rushing per game this season (after 3 years of 142/g, 172/g, 136/g).

The game remained close on the scoreboard for the 1st half and through the 3rd. The Lions' defense put up some stiff resistance in the red zone. The score was 10-6 to start the 4th but did not feel that close. Finally, the time of possession (Seahawks-37m, Lions-23m) wore the Lions down and QB Russell Wilson led two back-breaking 80+ yard touchdown drives to put the outdoor Lions to sleep.

MVP : RB Thomas Rawls. I know WR Paul Richardson provided the one-handed highlights and WR Doug Baldwin continues to be a force as the TDs add up but the MVP was clearly Rawls who set a postseason Seahawk record with 161 yards. Rawls could well be the x-factor of the entire NFC bracket. If the Seahawks can run the ball- can they be stopped?

Wildcard Weekend 2017

Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans

The Football Gods have not been kind to the Raiders. As recently as halftime of their Week 16 blowout of the Colts, the Raiders were a red hot Super Bowl favorite. QB Derek Carr was in MVP consideration and a big, rock steady offensive line was happy and healthy. The defense- admittedly a weakness - at least has that explosive pass rush of LBs Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin. We've seen teams win with this formula.

Now, only six quarters later; the Raiders have lost Derek Carr, the 1st round bye, home field advantage and back-up QB Matt McGloin (shoulder) may even be sitting out. In his place, may be rookie QB Cooper Cook. The Raiders have gone from worrying about displacing the Patriots as AFC Champs to hoping for an upset against a terrible Houston team.

Yes this game sucks, the Football Gods have been no better to Houston but somehow they bumbled to the playoffs. For the Texans' it's been a long, slow burn. $77 million dollar man QB Brock Osweiler has been a joke, benched for QB Tom Savage who hasn't been inspiring. RB Lamar Miller, WR DeAndre Hopkins have been prisoners of a limited offense. Houston's defense led by former #1 overall DE Jadeveon Clowney has been solid but nothing Super Bowl special.

So what are we left with here? A game of Osweiler/Savage -vs- McGloin/Cook? These are talented rosters, that's why they are in the playoffs, but there's little drama- the battle to be the inevitable divisional loser in New England.

KEYS for OAK : The big offensive line needs to take over the game. LT Donald Penn and LG Kelechi Osemale are the engine of this 12-4 turnaround and both were knicked-up in the Week 17 loss in Denver.

KEYS for HOU : Houston's QB, be it Savage or Osweiler, just have to play decent enough to win an ugly game. There is not a lot of hope for the Texans in the next round of the playoffs, it's true, but drawing a decapatiated Oakland team in the wildcard has been fortuitous.

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks don't come into the postseason with the special "playing for January" momentum as they have been the last 3 seasons. QB Russell Wilson suffered injuries earlier in the year, and the offense has struggled to move, seemingly every other game. Meanwhile, the defense lost it's true heart and soul S Earl Thomas.

The Lions have lost 3 straight, including the Week 17 loss to Green Bay - the final act of an improbable comeback- 3 losses for Detroit, 3 wins for Green Bay. It's not a particularly feel-good underdog story - Detroit still hasn't won the division since 1993 and Green Bay has won 5 out of the last 6 seasons. QB Matt Stafford has created a smoke-and-mirrors season built on heart-filled comebacks, stunning resilience, and healthy heaping of Lady Luck.

KEYS for DET : WR Golden Tate and WR Marvin Jones Jr need to play well at the same time. They have had opposite trajectories this season- Jones the early star, Tate the late star - but Stafford needs them both, all game. The Detroit passing game needs to carry the team, not just with 1 minute left in the 4th but all game long.

KEYS for SEA : With a below-average (even for the Seahawks) O-line, the most important aspect of a deep Seahawks' run is a clicking of the run game, and that will be on RB Thomas Rawls. The defense can grit through even without Thomas, Wilson is still a Top 5 QB, but the run game must ignite.

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers QB Ben Rothlisberger is the only playoff-caliber Quarterback in the AFC wildcard. The Steelers are hoping that's enough to pull them through to a vintage KC/PIT battle next week. The Dolphins will certainly be missing injured QB Ryan Tannehill replaced by journeyman QB Matt Moore, but they are not the rollover it may first appear : RB Jay Ajayi has emerged as a workhorse and the defense behind DT Ndmankong Suh is why the Dolphins are here. Running game and Defense always carries potential.

Speaking of potential, we are still waiting for the Super-Steel-Offense of Rothlisberger, RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown to blow us away. We saw a glimpse at the end of the Week 16 division-clinching victory over the Ravens, but injury and inexplicable ineffectiveness has kept this from being the #1 offense you would think with two Top 3 guys at the RB and WR positions. 

KEYS for MIA: WR Jarvis Landry needs to make plays early and often. He is an X-factor in the short passing game. With a journeyman QB at the helm, the talented Landry can help the Dolphins compete and keep the Steelers from stacking against Ajayi.

KEYS for PIT : Despite being an elite part of the 2014 and 2015 Steeler teams, this is the first postseason game of RB Le'Veon Bell's career. He's been a fantasy superstar, it's time to make himself a true superstar the only way possible- in the postseason. 

New York Giants @Green Bay Packers

It's tough to say what is going to fly out of New York and walk onto the frozen tundra this Sunday. QB Eli Manning has not been inspiring this year, but he wasn't in 2007 or 2011 either. 3-year phenom WR Odell Beckham Jr has bailed Eli out game by game, short slant to the house after short slant to the house. That's a tough act to carry into the postseason. It's a good thing the Giants are a lot more than that. They are also an excellent defensive unit led by S Landon Collins and DE Oliver Vernon and recently-returned from injury CB Janoris Jenkins. 3 free agent players who have come to New York raised their game in 2016.

The Packers started slow this year offense (they are always slow on defense) and looked destined to miss the playoffs- had the league finally figured Green Bay's offense out? Is Coach Mike McCarthy actually holding Aaron Rodgers back? Then, QB Aaron Rodgers caught fire. The Packers are on a 6 game winning steak, Rodgers has 15 TDs and 0 INTs. Rodgers said they could and they did, they "ran the table".

KEYS for NYG : Pressure on Rodgers is always the key against Green Bay. Even the expensively signed talent in the Giants' secondary cannot hold off Rodgers for long. The defense can drive a deep postseason run. The ideal would be that the momentum carries off their 10pt domination of the Washington in Week 17. The Redskins were playing for a playoff spot while NYG had #5 seed already locked, it was a remarkable performance. Both of these teams are hot at the right time.

KEYS for GB : RB/WR Ty Montgomery could fill the shoes of the necessary, gashing RB. Green Bay continues to falter since 2010 without a consistent rushing attack, Montgomery has made a unique positional transition this year but looks ready to take on the challenge.

Football Eve - The 1/16 Fever

Today we are all waiting. 

Maybe we’re making due with college football, or just killing time at BBQs but we the Fantasy Football faithful are waiting for the big day : the true Opening Day tomorrow with 13 games. 

After that, we will move into the most difficult week of Fantasy Football. The time between Week 1 and Week 2.  What I call the 1/16 Fever. 

How do you win in Fantasy Football? By looking ahead and keep perspective. I wanted to come out with this blog right now (as opposed to after the games) to remind you to watch Week 1 with a skeptical eye. Do not be infected by good or bad performances. Don't panic and drop a high draft pick. Don't make a trade that reflects Week 1's results. 

After Week 1 is on the books, there will be a very difficult transition for the fantasy community. We have spent 7 months ranking, tinkering, shuffling, projecting and predicting without any data on the 2016 season. Suddenly, we will have 16 games to digest in 7 days before another 16 games. We will feel full of boatloads information with more incoming, but in reality- if we can keep perspective- we will actually be dwelling within a small sample size, only 1/16th of the Fantasy Season. Week 2 will be just as contradicting & confusing as Week 1.

I'm not saying putting too much stock into Week 1 is not an intellectually statistical thing, it is an emotional reaction to what you will see. The 1/16 Fever is not just a dangerous mindset, it's a tempting mindset. It's comfortable, it's easy, and it feels good to supposedly know who's actually going to be good this year and who isn't. Some of your equally obsessive fantasy friends will cave into the admittedly glorious feeling of praising the player who scored the Touchdown, while scoffing at the player who did not. They’ve got “answers” now, when before we only had questions.

Even the experts will not be able to resist the urge “Player A was a focal part of the Red zone offense we saw that - Oh what a satisfying little phrase to throw in after months and months of “I think this will happen ! To point at something we actually saw is a tempting thing. It will happen because we just saw it happen. 

Only it very well may not. Week 1 won't answer our 2016 questions, we will need more games. 

The cure for the 1/16 Fever starts with Week 2 which will equally change the fantasy landscape again, and Week 3 will do the same. Things will begin to stabilize around October, and even then we know how much uncertainty there will be. 

I am just as excited for football as anyone, but just a quick inoculation for you, we are walking into the most difficult part of the Fantasy Football Season. 

Many things that happened in Week 1 did end up becoming trends, but there was no way to tell until the season progressed.  Here are some of the horror stories from last year. They seem obvious now that they were just flashes in the pan but at the time, many of these bullet points were being touted as "common knowledge". 

2015 Week 1: 

-Austin Seferian-Jenkins had 110 yards, 2 TDs, analysts were projecting him as genuine competition for Gronk because the rookie QB clearly loves his big TE. 

-Carlos Hyde had 168 yards and 2 TDs on MNF, in many circles he was thrown into Top 5 RB status instantly. 

-Alfred Morris had 121 yards, same ol’ Alf said the masses.

-Blake Bortles had only 183 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Same Bortles as last year said the masses.

-Doug Martin had only 52 yards on 11 carries and shared a lot of time with Sims & Rainey, so much for that preseason hype that he was back. 

-The Panthers could only muster 175 of total yards against the Jaguars. Even in a winning effort with a defensive TD to help, Jonathan Stewart could only manage 56 yards. 


-Miles
Headless Chickens Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Hype

The Preseason has always been a love/hate relationship for fantasy football players and NFL fans in general. It's the least important football of the entire year, but it's also the first football after 6-7 months of NO football. 

Week 3 of the preseason is the dress rehearsal, the week that the starters play the most time (usually the first half and start of the 2nd) and since almost all of them will not play in Week 4 it is the last thing we will remember as we wait out the 10 days between the end of Preseason Week 3 and Opening Weekend.

Fantasy Football players can never wait - and neither can the experts - we waited 3 months for the Draft, then 3 more months for training camp, and now we're waiting through preseason - we are hungry for news, insights, anything that will help them get a great angle on the main course, the long-awaited regular season. 

It takes a Zen master to avoid buying into the Preseason narratives and stars, but every single year- every single year- they are proven moot once the regular season begins.

If Zen will not work, explanation will usually do the trick. Below are the 3 reasons to avoid pre-season hype and the 1 type of hype to buy into.

1) Game Plans. Or lack thereof - real NFL game-plans are not happening. Opposing coaches will often discuss what they are going to try to do at different parts of these games -with each other- so as to match up personnel and game scripts for evaluation. Anybody who says the Giants looked great "running this scheme" are missing the point of preseason. There is no element of surprise or in-game adjustments to what is happening on the field, two incredibly key ingredients to what makes NFL teams win and lose games. 

2) Personnel Variation. There are various levels of dedication and personnel on the field. Simply put, some players need the preseason more than others, some play more than others. 

Say, Melvin Gordon runs sprint right and breaks a weak arm tackle by an established DB who is not going to risk injury in the preseason and Gordon gains 25 yards. The next play, Melvin Gordon runs sprint left and is met by a 2nd-string LB literally playing his heart out to make the team, this is moment this LB has to put on tape to help sell himself for his career & livelihood - he lays out and tackles Godron for a 2 yard gain. With this type of variation all over the field, is there really that much information we can glean out of Melvin Gordon's stats at the end of the day? 

3) The speed. The NFL is about fast decisions, quick first steps and solid techniques under pressure. The preseason is played at a slower pace. If you've been watching pre-season, it's immediately evident when Opening Day kicks off. What does this mean? It means that the environment that Aaron Rodgers, A.J Green, Von Miller, Richard Sherman excel above their peers is not available for preview in the preseason. When the speed is cranked up another level, the cream rise to the top- while the speed is sitting at a comfortable medium-high, some players will look much better than they will in the regular season. 

but that's not to say there is nothing to be gained by Preseason...

because there is one key thing to watch for...

Eyeball Hype Doug Martin last year, Mark Ingram last year - these guys looked better, faster, quicker. They didn't pop off stats or big highlights- none of that would even matter because of what I wrote above. It's only that they looked different- does a WR look like they're cutting sharper than they have before? Is an RB making better decisions? These things you cannot quantify- you can only trust your eyeballs (or the eyeballs of someone you trust!)

This weekend I will be watching for players that hype my eyeballs, I hope you will be too! 

Follow us @HeadlessFF on Twitter, eyeball hype will be a big theme this weekend. 

-Miles McGillivray