Wildcard Weekend 2015

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) @ Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)

Only six weeks ago, the 9-1 Cardinals were the NFC favorites for the #1 seed and the 3-7-1 Panthers were in the conversation for the #1 pick of the draft. Now, the Panthers host the Cardinals to kick off the 2014/15 NFL Playoffs. It's not the marquee playoff matchup ESPN wanted but it certainly is unique.

QB Cam Newton and the Panthers are riding a 4 game win streak into the playoffs but still finished with a losing record. The December Panthers have looked more like a playoff team and in the woeful NFC South, one month of good football was enough. Fortune could not have been sweeter as their playoff opponent is moving in the opposite direction. Arizona has suffered injuries to QB Carson Palmer, backup QB Drew Stanton, and star RB Andre Ellington, leaving the Red Sea offense to rely on QB Ryan Lindley and RB Kerywnn Williams, two players who weren't even with the team for any part of the 9-1 start.

KEYS FOR ARI: If banged-up Arizona is going to shock the world with the three road victories it would take to return home to Arizona for the Super Bowl, it will need to be on the backs of the defense. DE Calais Campbell and CB Patrick Peterson will need to make themselves household names starting this Saturday.

KEYS FOR CAR: Cam Newton can elevate his game any time, but a playoff team with the 19th best record in the NFL is going to have multiple keys. Against Arizona, a consistent run game, a rejuvenated pass rush and a healthy Cam Newton must all continue their December improvement, or at least not regress, to keep Carolina favored in this game.

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

This is not your older brother's Ravens/Steelers of 2006-2012. These are two teams turning the corner of their respective rebuilding processes that have over-performed into the playoffs. It really is a testament to both franchises that they could lose so much of their recent Super Bowl teams (2012 for BAL, 2010 for PIT) and already return to the playoffs.

You know both Baltimore and Pittsburgh would love to ground and pound through each other with the run game and stifling defensive lines like the "old days" but that is just not where the strength of these teams lie. The Ravens will need big plays from QB Joe Flacco to the Smith bothers (Steve and Torrey) against a suspect Steeler secondary and the Steelers Ben Rothlisberger will look to remain on fire with his All-Pro WR Antonio Brown and big play rookie WR Martavis Bryant. Steelers/Ravens; the aerial versions.

KEYS FOR BAL: The Ravens offensive line has sustained injuries to both tackles and may start two rookies in their line for the 2nd straight week. This was well and good against a demoralized Cleveland last week, but in the hostile playoff atmosphere of Heinz field it may be a factor. Much of the Ravens' success will hinge on if the patchwork offensive line can keep Flacco protected and make some room for RB Justin Forsett.

KEYS FOR PIT: This season, the Steelers witnessed the rise of two legitimate superstars, WR Antonio Brown and RB Le'Veon Bell. If Bell cannot play after hyper extending his knee last week, it's clear that the burden will be placed on Brown and the Steelers' passing game.

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

Marvin Lewis, QB Andy Dalton and their tiger striped friends appear on Morning Wildcard TV for the 4th straight year. If this were a movie, it would follow that the Bengals would overcome this obstacle and finally thrive. That still may be the case but the Bengals' playoff woes have not been coincidence, in the case of opposing QBs, Andrew Luck is already miles ahead of Andy Dalton.

While Luck hasn't been perfect, he's turned the ball over a lot, he has been one of the best players in the league this season. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton has embarrassed himself on primetime television a few times, calling back to his horrendous Wildcard performance against San Diego last year in this same TV time slot.

KEYS FOR CIN: Spark-plugs RB Jeremy Hill, RB Giovoni Bernard and another year from another solid defense have signed Dalton up for the Playoff Challenge yet again. I continue to harp that the playoffs are won and lost with quarterback play and Andy Dalton;s time has come again. Will he rise to the challenge?

KEYS FOR IND: Meanwhile, Andrew Luck could use some help. The Indianapolis defense was at it's scariest during it's week 7 shutout of these same Bengals. The Colts have had a lackluster December and they would benefit greatly from a few early big plays on defense.

Detroit Lions (11-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-4)

The underachieving Lions & Cowboys combine for our final Wild Card battle. Cowboys QB Tony Romo makes his first playoff appearance since the 2009 season and finally has the cast around him to contend. RB DeMarco Murray and the O-line have been the best in the NFL. The offensive balance has helped the much-maligned Cowboy defense turn in the most surprisingly solid year on record despite being the worst defense in the league last season and then losing two stars (Ware and Lee) before the season began.

The Lions are looking to add a 2nd playoff victory their franchise's troubled history. QB Matt Stafford has not put up the video game numbers he has in years' past, even with Megatron finally being complemented by another decent option in WR Golden Tate. The Lions have dominated lesser teams with great defense. Some hold this against them, but I don't see it that way. The old Lions would have underachieved again and dropped many of those games. Defeating the lesser opponents without requiring offensive explosions is what real playoff teams do.

Perennial troublemaker DT Ndamukong Suh is lucky to be playing in this game after being suspended for his attempted ankle step on Aaron Rodgers. It does give us the benefit of a Dallas' O-line -vs- Detroit D-line matchup, a consensus #1 -vs- #1 unit battle.

Can the Lions do to the Romo/Murray/Bryant Cowboys what they did to the Aikman/Smith/Irvin Cowboys in 1991? Be afraid, Dallas, be very afraid!

KEYS FOR DET: The Lions' defense has been great this season because of LB DeAndre Levy, an above-average secondary and truly the best D-line in the league. Except they have been destroyed by the Saints, Packers and Patriots. The Lions need to rattle the top-tier passer they face, this time Tony Romo.

KEYS FOR DAL: Dallas just needs to do what they have been doing; running the ball, getting great decision-making from Romo, and keeping their offense on the field for long drives. The Cowboys have shown themselves to be a complete team, they need only prove it by continuing their formula into the playoffs.

50 DAYS OF RUSSELL.

Russell Wilson is a few days away from playing his 51st game as a Seattle Seahawk. As a region, have we taken the time to appreciate the previous 50 game days with Russell Wilson as our starting quarterback?

Older fans will remember the high-flying underdog days of 70s Jim Zorn or 80s Dave Kreig. My personal recollection begins with the drearier Rick Mier, rotating Gelbaugh/McGwire/Friesz 90s followed by the hired gun services of Warren Moon, Trent Dilfer or Jon Kitna years. 

As decent-to-great as Matt Hasselbeck was through the Holmgren era 2001-08, the Mora year and into the first Pete Carroll season in 2010, he was never the darling of Seattle, the heart of a team, a national superstar like Russell Wilson. He would not have been in 2 out of every 5 national commercials like Russell is this year. 

The Russell Wilson era has brought a national spotlight unprecedented in Seahawk History. Even the 2005 team that was 3 or 4 penalties from a Super Bowl earned barely a passing mention in the media during fat Jerome Bettis' storybook ending. Wilson's arrival has coincided perfectly with the rise of The Legion Of Boom, the prime of Marshawn Lynch, and the new Nike uniforms for a perfect storm of national prominence.

Wilson has been so unique, so different, dynamic and exciting. Across the league, the searches have commenced for the next short, smart, hard working athletic QB but there isn't another Russell, he breaks the mold.

And so, a day before our 51st gameday with him, let us take a moment to reflect on the previous 50 days we lined up with Russell Wilson as our starting quarterback. We have witnessed 10,300 passing yards, 1,934 rushing yards, 75 passing TDs, 11 rushing TDs, only 25 interceptions on 1,254 attempts and an impressive overall record of 37-13. 

The Beginning.

9/9/12 @ Arizona. We officially meet our short little 3rd round pick who beat out 2011 starter Tavaris Jackson and big name free agent Matt Flynn for the opening day start. The game was conservative but Russell drove us down at the end of the game with a chance to win in the red zone that ultimately came up short. This would prove to be an uncommon site.

9/16/12 vs Dallas. In Russell's first home game, the Seahawks handled Dallas at home. While the Seahawks were nowhere near a powerhouse yet, the game was defined by 90 and 87 yard touchdown drives in the 2nd half. A kind of confidant, consistent football feeling not felt in Seattle since the glory Alexander/Jones/Hutchinson years.

9/24/12 vs Green Bay. The Prime Time Monday Night Game most famous for the Fail Mary and for the beheadings of the replacement referees. Lost in the chaos was Seattle's first defensive powerhouse performance and Russell's great play to drive the field, elude a sure sack and throw the Infamous Golden Tate TD in the first place.

The Star Turn.

10/14/12 vs New England. And on the 6th day, there was light. With Tom Brady on his way to 395 yards, the Seahawks were forced to spread the formations and let Russell loose for the first time. He responded with 293 yards, 3 TDs and 0 Ints (compared to Brady's crucial 2). With 1:27 left in the game, Wilson hit the game-winning 46 yard Sidney Rice post route.

12/2/12 @ Chicago. This is the game that most fans point to as the first time they accepted Russell Wilson as their savior. At 6-5, there were no guarantees for the underdog Seahawks with a short rookie QB. With 3:40 remaining and down by 4 points, Wilson led a drive 97 yards to the end zone. He completed 6 of 8, rushed for 19 yards and hit Tate for the go-ahead TD with 32 seconds remaining. The twist? Seattle's defense gave way and allowed a field goal to send the game to OT. All Wilson did was do it it again. Wilson & the offesne, drove another 90 yards. Wilson rushed to convert a few 3rd downs and completed another game-winning TD to Sidney Rice.

12/16/12 @ Buffalo. In the awkward, dead air of a Toronto stadium, Russell Wilson showed off his wheels. He ran 9 times for 92 yards and 3 TDs, added another TD and 205 yards passing as the Hawks blew out the Bills.

12/23/12 vs San Francisco. A prime time to shine, Sunday Night Football in the heating Sea/Sf rivalry. Wilson was just one of the many Seahawk bright spots going 15 for 21 with 4 TDs as Seattle decimated the eventual Super Bowl losers 42-13.

The Chained.

9/30/12 @ St. Louis.
10/7/12 @ Carolina. 
10/18/12 @ San Francisco.
10/28/12 @ Detroit.
11/25/12@ Miami.
12/30/12 vs St. Louis. 
During the bulk of his rookie year, Wilson was efficient in what he was asked to do and turned the ball over only 10 times. Pete Carroll and the coaching staff kept things conservative. We threw the ball less than any other team in the league. The Seahawks were #32 in the NFL in passing attempts at 25.9 attempts per game compared to the NFL average of 35.4 attempts per game. We relied on Marshawn Lynch and a talented defense that admittedly was still trying to find consistency. Sometimes it paid off with hard wins in Carolina and at home vs St. Louis to end the year. Sometimes it wasn't enough in the tough road losses at San Francisco, Detroit, St. Louis and Miami. 

11/4/12 vs Minnesota.
11/11/12 vs NyJets.
12/9/12 vs Arizona. 
Then there were the days where rookie Wilson was hardly needed. The Seahawks defense and running game was so red hot late in the 2012 season as to relegate Wilson to the sideline by the 4th quarter, watching from the sideline as the backups killed the clock on the blowouts.

The Unchained.

1/6/13 @ Washington.
1/13/13 @ Atlanta. 
When the blowouts ceased and the playoff pressure was placed on the young Wilson, he responded with two convincing, nearly legendary comebacks. Down 14-0 early in the Washington game, the burden was on Wilson to continually drive the field and register his first playoff victory. Then, down 20-0 at halftime in Atlanta, Wilson did exactly what the traditional pundits had specifically said he could not do; play from behind and play catch up with his arm. Wilson led 4 touchdown drives in the 2nd half and racked up a career high 385 yards. Only to be overshadowed in the end by every Seattle fans' least favorite 31 seconds. 

As he was walking off the field in Atlanta, Wilson said he was already excited about next year's team. That excitement has certainly proven warranted. The 2013-14 Seahawks have been among the elite teams of the NFL and Russell has been their QB every gameday, looking to go "1-0 this week, because every week is a championship week".

The Headliners.

9/8/13 @ Carolina. In the 2013 season opener, what would soon be revealed as the formidable Carolina front 7 stifled Marshawn and the running game. In a defensive struggle, the game was on put on Wilson's arm and he came through with 320 yards and the game winning TD.

9/29/12 @ Houston. J.J Watt and his bloodied nose kept Wilson in check for most of the game while Arian Foster dominated the game for the Texans. Fortunes turned, assisted by a Richard Sherman pick-6, the game was put on Wilson's legs and he came through with 75 rushing yards in the 4th quarter and OT alone and set up the game winning FG.

10/17/13 @ Arizona. In case any one thought Russell was just a running QB who only excels at home, Russell delivered a Thursday Night masterpiece in Arizona, 18 for 26 and 235 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs. 

12/2/13 vs New Orleans. ESPN was shell-shocked when Russell and the Seahawks D spoiled their 'Game Of The Year' against the Saints on national TV with another 3 TD, 300 yard game and slew of clutch runs. If there was any time Russell's name was floated into the MVP conversation it was after this game. 

9/21/14 vs Denver. In what would have been a much more thrilling Super Bowl, Peyton Manning tied the game at the end of regulation with a whirlwind drive for a touchdown. The Seahawks won the coin toss to start overtime, and Wilson led a downright cold-blooded, 13-play drive to the end zone, nullifying Denver's redemption storyline. 

10/6/14 @ Washington. The Seahawks had a lackluster middle of this 2014 season but on Monday Night Football in Week 5, the game was won by Russell Wilson. He was the difference in the game, accounting for the bulk of the first downs, 201 yards in the air, and 122 yards on the ground.

10/19/14 @ St.Louis. The Rams and their bag of tricks took this game in the end but Russell's 300 yard passing, 100 yard rushing performance is the ONLY such performance in NFL History. 

The Duds.

10/28/13 @ St. Louis. It was a different story in St. Louis, 51 weeks earlier. Though the patchwork offensive line and Rams D-line surely deserves a share of the blame/credit on this day, Russell was unable to move the ball at all except for one great Golden Tate play. The defense truly bailed him out and saved this 14-9 win.

12/22/13 vs Arizona. The Seahawks won 14 straight home games with Russell as QB until this day. While it can be argued Arizona QB Carson Palmer had the worse day (4 interceptions), Russell was still on the losing end and did nothing to inspire confidence in the passing game, going 11 for 27 and barely managing 100 yards. 

11/2/14 vs Oakland. Never has Russell looked worse. Some throws were incredibly inaccurate and some of the decision making was uncharacteristically poor.  What happened on this particular day is a mystery, even Russell said "I just didn't think I played well for whatever reason, and I usually know why". In typical Raiders fashion, they still lost this game.

11/16/14 @ Kansas City. In this recent game, Jamaal Charles ran all over the defense. Lost in that headline was the fact that Russell and the offense had three legitimate opportunities to drive the field and win the game, and failed all 3 times.

Duds aside, the real genius to this list is the sheer amount of decent Wilson performances about to follow. Wilson has had a few headliners and a few duds, all QBs do. Not many have the steady resume Wilson has. At times he has lacked weapons on the outside, and sometimes Marshawn & the Defense have been so good he hasn't had to do as much but the true greatness of Russell Wilson is his consistency as... 

The Juggernaut Manager.

9/2/13 vs San Francisco.
9/4/14 vs Green Bay. 
When Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman and the defense showcase their dominance in prime time, Russell remains the calm, steady hand that keeps the chains moving on the other side. It must be maddeningly frustrating as an opposing fan in a big game, with the Seahawk defense crunching down, to see Russell miraculously escape the pass rush into wide open turf or whirling to his left, hitting receivers down field to give those crucial sparks and back breaking 3rd down conversions, all the while making very few mistakes. 

11/23/14 vs Arizona.
11/27/4 @ San Francisco.
12/07/14 @ Philadelphia. 
The same formula applies to the three most recent games. The symbiotic relationship between the returning elite Seahawks defense and Wilson's improvisation brought the Seahawks from 6-4 on the fringe of playoff contention to 9-4 and a game behind a limping Arizona for another division win.

9/22/13 vs Jacksonville.
11/10/13 @ Atlanta.
11/17/13 vs Minnesota.
12/15/13 @ NyGiants.
12/29/13 vs St. Louis. 
Wilson ran right with the 2013 Seahawk pack as they decimated lesser teams on their way to the #1 seed in the NFC. Wilson's stat lines in these drubbings; 76 for 113, 1,027 yards, 10 TDs and only 2 INTs.

10/6/13 @ Indianapolis.
12/8/13 @ San Francisco.
9/14/14 @ San Diego.
10/12/14 vs Dallas. 
The other guys get paid too. It's just the truth. Wilson played well in these games, the defense wasn't atrocious. Sometimes the other team just comes up big; Andrew Luck and T.Y Hilton's deep bombs for the Colts, Frank Gore's gut-punching 51 yard run, Phillip Rivers' efficient day for San Diego and Demarco Murray's 4th quarter clinic for Dallas just plain beat the Seahawks. The NFL a is a tough league. All four of these days, Russell had the team within reach of a win, but you can't go 16-0 every year. 

10/13/13 Tennessee.
11/3/13 Tampa Bay.
10/26/14 @ Carolina.
11/9/14 vs NyGiants. 
The ugly wins, the Russell Wilson specials, whether they are coming back on the 0-8 Bucs after being down 21 or are grinding out games until separating in the 4th quarter. The defense's relationship of 60 minute violence and the steady consistency of Wilson's decision making has been a wining combination. Russell Wilson may not break the eyeballs on the stat sheet, but he is the Quarterback of a team that has won a lot of games. 

The Super Bowl Run.

1/11/14 vs New Orleans. Wilson didn't have a great statistical day (9/18 with 103 yards) but yet again he didn't need to. Wilson's contribution as a running threat and safe decision maker kept the Saints off balance and Marshawn's 140 yard, 2 TD day did the rest. There was little urgency on offense as the offensive star power of the 'Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles Saints' were shut out through 3 quarters and desperately clawed back to a 23-15 loss.

1/19/14 vs San Francisco. In the classic NFC Championship, Wilson and the Seahawks met their toughest foe of the 50 games documented here. On this day, the 49ers were a freight train powerhouse on a hot streak at the right time, and they undoubtedly had vengeance on their mind. Russell fumbled the first play of the game but redeemed himself with a mistake-free remainder of the game and the famous 4th-and-7 Touchdown to Jermaine Kearse.

2/2/14 vs Denver. Wilson's Super Bowl performance is under-appreciated. The trials and failures around Peyton Manning (in-arguably one of the greatest QBs of all time) and the domination of Seattle's defense (in-arguably one of the greatest defensive performances of all time) rightfully held the headlines. However, Wilson was rock-solid, converting 3rd downs in the 1st quarter and driving the 43-8 dagger in further with touchdowns in the 2nd half, Wilson was 18 for 25, 206 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs and will forever be the first Seattle Seahawk Quarterback of a Super Bowl Champion. 

SUPER BOWL 48

Seattle Seahawks, 43 Denver Broncos, 8

In New York City's surprisingly mild February weather, the Seahawks were bigger, faster, stronger and the 12th man was louder. In retrospect, it seems obvious now that the Seahawks defense wouldn't allow the record-breaking yards after catch that the AFC had allowed to Denver's WRs. The All-Pros in the secondary (CB Richard Sherman, S Kam Chancellor, S Earl Thomas) would be the only team Denver faced so far to require no help and thus be able to release a fully-staffed pass rush on Denver's depleted offensive line for essentially the first time all season. Seattle did not have to confuse the mastermind Peyton Manning, they overpowered the historic passing game and exposed that the rest of the team was not up to a Super task.

From the first snap over QB Peyton Manning's shoulder for a safety followed by two interceptions converted into touchdowns, the Seahawks dominated the first half. Seattle's suffocating defense did not allow a first down on Denver's first three drives while QB Russell Wilson made the key throws on 3rd downs to keep the Seahawks' offense moving.

The key stretch of the half was undoubtedly Denver's 2nd quarter response to S Kam Chancellor's interception that led to a RB Marshawn Lynch goal line TD that put the Seahawks up 15-0. This was the window that Manning and his record-setting miracle show finally got the ball moving on the Seahawks, albiet slowly. Notably missing were the big runs after the catch, or the huge holes for RB Knowshon Moreno. It was tough going- 14 plays to go 48 yards- but Manning was moving the chains. That is, until on the drive's 15th play when DE Cliff Avril got around an overmatched T Orlando Franklin and hit Manning's hand forcing a legendary, wobbly duck up into the air, caught by LB Malcom Smith and returned for a touchdown, 22-0.

If there was any hope the Broncos #1 All-Time offense would erase the 22 point deficit it was shattered instantly. The 2nd half kickoff was returned off a bounce for a touchdown by none other than the dynamic but injury-maligned "x-factor" WR Percy Harvin. Even up 29-0, the Seahawks D never relented, they forced two more fumbles and Wilson parsed out red zone darts to a spinning and unwinding WR Jermaine Kearse and ping-pong ball WR Doug Baldwin.

This was a nostalgic 1980s Super Bowl blowout after a decade of thrillers. A call back to the old days of NFC dominace. Remincient of Washington's 1987 thumping of Denver 42-10 or San Francisco's 1988 thumping of Denver 55-10, right down to the orange jerseys and look on John Elway's face.

Sorry, television audience, today was Seattle's day. A Super Bowl set aside for the 12th man to bury the demons of Super Bowl XL, the Supersonics departure, the Mariners 116-win season and failure to reach the World Series... today was that day.

Seattle pulled back the curtain on the Denver Broncos and the state of the inferior AFC. Thomas, Sherman and Chancellor were a force in the secondary that Denver had not yet seen. It unleashed the dogs DE Michael Bennett, DE Chris Clemons and DE Cliff Avril on Peyton Manning. Without a balanced, steamrolling offense, the rest of Denver was exposed as a below-average team depleted by key injuries. Peyton Manning will be called a choke-artist but throughout his career, his only crime has been dragging teams further than they should have gone.

KEY PLAY: The key play has to be the LB Malcom Smith's interception return. Denver was only down 15-0 at the time and was moving the ball. The credit for the interception should at least partially go to DE Cliff Avril who hit Peyton's arm on the play. In reality, there are too many key plays to count in a blowout; Percy's icing in the cake return, Chancellor's interception, Kearse and Tate's ping-pong ball touchdowns, the first-play safety, etc. The essence of a key play is a turning point, and the Seahawks really had the game in hand the entire time.

MVP: I know it's wrong to go against the actual awarded Super Bowl MVP LB Malcom Smith. Smith was involved in a few key plays but not truly in the Top 5 of defensive performances of this game.

The MVP for me is S Kam Chancellor.  One day the record books will lose the true context for Peyton Manning's Super Bowl record 34 completions and Demarius Thomas' Super bowl record 13 receptions. Those records should be factored on Chancellor's legacy too. It was not garbage time stat-padding, it was a symptom of the Denver WRs fear of Chancellor's shadow and the short passing game with little yards after catch that Denver was forced to resort to.

WHY THE SEAHAWKS WILL WIN

This week, I have been annoyed at the national media preferring the Broncos in such large numbers. Normally, I might prefer the underdog role. I wasn't proclaiming any victories against San Francisco, because I believe that team could have beaten us. I don't see Denver on that same level, this Denver team should be the underdog.

Anybody close to the Seahawks with a sense of NFL perspective knows this is something special in Seattle. The media just loves offensive numbers, loves a fantasy football star, they love to select the Broncos in Madden on the Xbox and marvel at all the broken records, but this Denver offense is not the only element of this Super Bowl. The favorite in this game should be the Seahawks. And what follows are 8 reasons why.


#1 DEFENSIVE DEPTH - The statistics and accolades are there. The Seahawks defense has allowed the fewest points, the fewest yards, created the most turnovers, and has an All-Pro secondary. Still, the national media just can't quite put a finger on what makes this defense so much better than anything Denver has seen. They chalk it up to superstars Sherman, Thomas and Chancellor, throw in some lip service to a "pass rush" and call it good. They are missing the real greatness in this defense.

The real reason Seattle is so good on defense is roster depth. They boast four starting-caliber linebackers for three positions, a murderers row of 6 or 7 defensive run-stuffers and pass-rushers, and incredible depth at cornerback. All told, the Seahawks roster depth is astounding. These players are powerful, fast, strong and disciplined. The Seahawks enlist a solid 15 -16 starting-caliber, if not above-average, players rotating in to fit their strengths. As Marshawn Lynch said; "We got some dogs".

BONUS: You may be wondering why Seattle just so happens to have all these great defensive players. If they can do it, why don't other teams also just load up on defensive talent? The reason we have these players is #1) because they drafted exceptionally well and #2) because they can afford them. With superstars Sherman, Thomas III and Wilson all on rookie contracts, there has been plenty of money to keep the defensive roster over-stocked.

#2 DEFENSIVE SCHEME (OR LACK THEREOF) - Both the Broncos and Seahawks have made it to the Super Bowl not by out-smarting but by over-powering opponents. The Broncos become the highest scoring team in league history by forcing teams to pick their own poison. The receiving corps of Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker have simply been too much speed, power and talent for most teams to cover. Those defenses have to concede somewhere and no concession goes unpunished under the watchful eye of the great Peyton Manning. If a defense over-commits to the pass, Peyton checks to the running game which then finds conveniently little resistance.

This formula, the basis by which Denver wins games, is going to seriously be put to the test against the Seahawks defense, specifically the secondary. This is one of the only defenses equipped to manage Peyton's weapons without sacrificing the pass rush or players defending the run. Seattle does not rely on complex zones or blitz packages, they have the personnel to win individual battles and challenge receivers at the line of scrimmage. There are no fancy schemes for Peyton Manning to decode, the pressure will be on the receivers to dominate a secondary that, so far, has been the ones doing the dominating.

#3 BRONCOS OFFENSIVE LINE ISSUES - If Seattle's secondary is able to do what no other team has done and slow Peyton Manning's receivers down. We will be treated, on a national stage, to the actual state of the Denver Broncos' offensive line. Let's get one thing straight right away, the reason Peyton Manning isn't sacked that much is Peyton Manning. He makes the quickest decisions, has the fastest release, and is too efficient for most defenses to attack in the pass rush consistently.

But when this line is expected to hold that extra second or two, without their two best players (T Ryan Clady and C Dan Koppen are out for the year), things could get difficult. The Broncos are trotting out a 3rd-string center, a backup left tackle and struggling G Zane Beadles into the Super Bowl. They will be going against the massive Red Bryant, Brandon Mebane, and Clinton McDonald, against the relentless Chris Clemons, Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. These players have had to share statistics, tackles and sacks, so they haven't received their due attention. If Peyton requires extra time, we will see the extent of this mismatch.

#4 - PEYTON'S RECORDS MEAN NOTHING HERE - National media, I understand. I really do. I love offense. I root for it every year. I rooted for the late 90's Vikings, the Manning Colts and the high-flying versions of the Patriots.

The Broncos scored 606 points. A record. So they seem unbeatable, after all this is a game of points, is it not? I hear Denver personalities trot this doozey out all the time: "you aren't going to beat the best offense in the history in the league". Well, sorry guys. Good offense, even historically good offense, is routinely beaten in the playoffs, especially lately. Let's look at the top 5 ALL-TIME offenses, prior to this season.

The 2007 New England Patriots - Lost in Super Bowl 42, scoring only 17.
The 2011 Green Bay Packers - Did not win a playoff game, scoring only 20
The 1998 Minnesota Vikings - Lost NFC Championship, 20-27.
The 2012 New Orleans Saints - Lost Divisional Round, 32-36.
The 2011 New England Patriots - Lost AFC Champoionship, scoring only 13.

These are the previous "Best Offenses Ever", and they are 0-1 in the Super Bowl. Hardly a ringing endorsement.  Statisictally, it may even be more of an inditement of those teams' defenses, rather than a statement of future Super Bowl Glory.

And If we expand our sample size to the Top 15 scoring offenses of all-time? 8 of the top 15 scoring offenses missed the Super Bowl entirely. Another six of them lost the Super Bowl. The only top offense to hoist the Lombardi trophy was #9 the 1999 St. Louis Rams. 1 out of 15. Those are different teams, different years, and different players, but my point is that you can't say having the most points in regular season history is any indicator of Super Bowl success. These historically high-scoring teams lose in the playoffs all the time.

#5 - PERCY HARVIN - Seattle spent the entire offseason implementing a playbook around their new superstar, WR Percy Harvin. Unfortunately for Seattle, Percy has seen only six quarters of football as a Seattle Seahawk. He will look to add four more in the Super Bowl.

Percy Harvin could very well rack up yardage and make the highlight-reels, it's possible. The sure thing  though is that he will have to be accounted for. Put plainly, Denver doesn't have the personnel (only a few teams like San Francisco or Caroloina do) to focus on Percy Harvin and Marshawn Lynch. They require too much attention and something will have to give.

#6 - DENVER'S DEFENSE - Seattle has played 7 out of their last 8 games against top 10 defenses. The only non-top 10 was the formidable pass rush of the St. Louis Rams. Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and Pete Carroll would never admit it, but they must feel relieved to go into the biggest game in franchise history against a significantly lesser defense than they have seen in months.

One year ago, Denver's defense was a strength. Since then, they have lost their two best players, DE Elvis Dumervil to the Ravens and LB Von Miller to injury. They have also lost their two most crucial unsung heroes to injury in top CB Chris Harris and leading tackler LB Wesley Woodyard.

Through the injuries, Denver's defense has managed to stay tough against the run all season but has been atrocious against the pass. In the postseason they have drawn fortunate matchups against the 'run-the-ball-over-and-over-without-Ryan-Matthews' San Diego Chargers and the shadow of New England's seriously hobbled offense. These injuries are likely to catch up with them in the Super Bowl against Seattle's marquee rusher and improvisational quarterback.

#7 - THE NFC IS SO MUCH BETTER THAN AFC - I don't know how any honest soul could watch the AFC and NFC Championships back-to-back and think the AFC participant should be the favorite to win the Super Bowl. The AFC game was powderpuff football compared to the NFC game. San Francisco and Seattle played a much faster, infinitely more physical, and more disciplined game.

This point is less about the statistics and more about the "eyeball test". I can tell you what I saw when I re-watched the playoffs on Game Rewind, I saw San Francisco, Carolina, New Orleans and Seattle as the four fastest, strongest teams in the NFL. The speed, power and overall depth of rosters was overwhelming. To be fair, Denver was clearly the best team in the AFC. I still do not think they would defeat any of the four divisional NFC teams.

#8 - RUSSELL WILSON - Two months ago, Russell was in the conversation for MVP but he has become a handoff machine for a much more conservative Seahawk offense. This is the way Seattle chose to play, to rely on the run game and defense and put little pressure on their passing game. It has kept Seattle's pass protection issues out of sight against the vicious defenses they faced at the end of the season and into the postseason. Still, Seattle fans (and Chicago, Arizona and Atlanta fans too) should know what this guy can do.

Wilson is a 5'10" 3rd round draft pick in only his second year. I don't blame other fanbases for not seeing it, for not sensing what kind of spark this guy can provide. I didn't understand Ray Lewis, Maurice Jones-Drew, or even Tom Brady until it was national news so I give you a pass.

Wilson is calm, cool, and clutch. He will escape, he will dazzle, and a great performance out of Russell will be impossible for Denver to overcome. Sunday could very easily become the day Russell Wilson writes his name into the NFL history books.

-----

None of this is to say that football isn't football. Let's face it, a bounce here, a bounce there, a call or two in the wrong way and entire games can change. My main point here is that the Seahawks should be the favorites. Peyton Manning will be the best player in the game, but at least 15 of the top 20 are Seahawks.

They should be favored and I hope they prove it on Sunday. Go Hawks.

-miles.

The Farewell 10 (2013/14)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-6)
It's hard to shake the heartbreaking fashion in which the Chiefs season ended, losing their star player on the first drive, building a 28 point lead anyway, and then losing anyway. But the 9-0 start, Coach Andy Reid's arrival and the star turns of RB Jamaal Charles and QB Alex Smith energized Kansas City for a comeback season.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-7)
Coach Chip Kelly had a great offense in a weak NFC East and saw WR DeSean Jackson and RB LeSean McCoy return to form. QB Nick Foles emerged with amazing efficiency. All season, there were nice, bright, shining lights on those guys but the Eagles' D was exposed as the weakness as soon as the playoffs began.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (11-6)
The Cincinnati fanbase was dealt an illusion of progress this year; 8-0 at home, an AFC North title. Yet the result was the same, an exit in the wildcard round. It was the loss of dominating DT Geno Atkins mid-season that really precipitated the Begnals' decline from elite to middling. QB Andy Dalton had a rollercoaster year with a lot of highs, but a lot of lows. This team is built to win now, and Dalton was awful in the playoff game.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-8-1)
This season, the Packers seemed cursed. Green Bay faithful watched every injury possible including the collerbone of franchise QB Aaron Rodgers. While rookie of the year RB Eddie Lacy was able to keep them afloat in the games he wasn't injured, the Green Bay D is still a weakness and Rodgers wasn't quite at full form. The dramatic 4th-and-8 blow to the the Bears for the weak NFC North division title will have to be enough for this season.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (12-6)
After a strong 5-0 start, many thought we would see a Vengeance Tour from reinstated Coach Sean Payton. The tour trains never left New Orleans. QB Drew Brees and the determined Saints were a convincing 8-0 at home but struggled in almost every away game, especially Seattle. The defense gained promising young pieces like S Kenny Vaccaro and DE Cameron Jordan, but the facts are facts, they had trouble winning on the road this season

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (12-6)
Almost everyone accepts without question that WR Reggie Wayne's ACL injury was the disaster for a team that, with Wayne, beat Seattle, San Francisco and Denver. While I do agree that Wayne is a great WR and important piece, the Colts D and skill players were being carried all year by 2nd-year QB Andrew Luck. It was sort of a 1980's-Elway-carrying-Denver dynamic happening here. Luck needs more help.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (12-5)
With a stacked D led by LB Luke Kuechly, the Panthers were able to take physical control of games. This aligned with Coach Ron Rivera's decision to trust a smarter QB Cam Newton and the Panthers soared through the regular season to the 2nd seed. However, they were shocked at the speed of the playoffs. The Panthers are strong on both sides of the ball, you get the feeling they will be back someday.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (10-8)
The Chargers never take the easy road. QB Philip Rivers had his best season in quite some time. RB Ryan Matthews, WR Keenan Allen formed key pieces around him. S Eric Weddle led an improved defense. Their late season success and playoff run makes you wonder why they struggled so much early. The Chargers have had so much skill and talent roll through their franchise in the 2000s, but they are yet to put together a full season.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (13-5)
With tape, glue, injured rookie WRs and practice squad specialists, Coach Bill Bellicheck and QB Tom Brady again carried the Patriots to the AFC Championship. Brady had a serious lack of weapons this year, and the defense took far too many key injuries. The 2010s Patriots have been strong but continue to come up short, one way or another.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (14-5)
In QB Colin Kaepernick's first full year at the helm of the powerful, deep 49ers roster, things started well, plummeted down in the fall, gathered momentum in the winter to a break-neck SB-favorite speed and crashed into the brick wall/Seattle Seahawks. They bullied Green Bay and Carolina in the playoffs but their dominating late-season run was cut short with "The Tip" by Richard Sherman. That's just the way it happened.

Sunday 1/19/14 (AFC/NFC)

Denver Broncos, 26 New England Patriots, 16

So maybe the odds were a little more stacked against the Patriots than we were willing to admit. QB Peyton Manning and his blue-chip weapons man-handled the rag-tag collection of Patriots to a 26-16 game that was far more one-sided than the score admits. WR Demaryius Thomas was dominant with 7 recptions for 134 yards, and TE Julius Thomas had 8 for 85. The Broncos offensive line kept Peyton Manning clean as a whistle. The Broncos defense shut down the Patriots running game, last week's Patriot hero RB LaGarrete Blount was held to six yards on five carries. It was all Denver on this night.

In hindsight, It really says something about Coach Bill Bellicheck and QB Tom Brady's historical ability to overcome personell issues that the media coverage up to this game was universally unwilling to call this game for the Broncos. The offense had their two emerging rookie recievers hobbled and was missing their main weapon TE Rob Gronkowski. The defense was missing essential pieces including Vince Wilfork, Brandon Spikes and Jarod Mayo. When CB Aqib Talib went down after a brutal block from former Pat WR Wes Welker, the jig was up. The Broncos moved the ball with ease, and had their way with a limited Patriot offense.

KEY PLAY: In a game with no turnovers, and a Denver offense racking up more yards than any Bill Bellicheck Patriot team ever have up, the Broncos defense was the big surprise. Near the end of the 3rd quarter, New England went aggressive on 4th-and-3, down 20-3, hoping to even out the game, until DT Terrance Knighten came through with a massive, pounding 10-yard loss sack.

MVP: WR Demaryius Thomas was bigger, faster and stronger than the Patriots' secondary (especially without Talib). He sliced past, and bowled through various Patriot arm tackles all game. Honorable mention certainly goes to his quarterback who truly spread the ball around masterfully but Thomas was the main target, the Patriots could not account for him.

Seattle Seahawks, 23 San Francisco 49ers, 17

The pundits could not have been more correct about the nature of the Seattle/San Francisco Slugfest. Everyone and their mother avoided calling another home blowout by Seattle. Everyone knew the game would be close, it would linger hard-fought in the trenches and end in thrilling fashion. The 49ers and the Seahawks delivered exactly that. A Classic Slug-fest.

LB Aldon Smith sacked, stripped and recovered a fumble from QB Russell Wilson on the very first play of the game. This gave San Francisco the ball at their own 15 but they went 3-and-out had to settle for a field goal. The tone was set. The entire first half was a defensive slugfest and ended 10-3 in San Francisco's favor. The difference was QB Colin Kaepernicks electrifying 58-yard run that set up a 1-yard, 4th down thump by RB Anthony Dixon.

In the second half, the give-and-take ensued. The Seahawks pounded straight through with RB Marshawn Lynch while Kaepernick worked from the outside, breaking containment for first downs, and a jumping dart to WR Anquan Boldin just over S Earl Thomas. Seattle responded with a gutsy 4th-and-7 to WR Jermaine Kearse. QB Russell Wilson caught Aldon Smith inexplicably offisdes with a hard count on a 4th down of a NFC Championship game (really, Aldon?) and took the free play, his own amazing throw to Kearse to give Seattle the lead.

In the 4th quarter, both defenses clamped down again. Two Kaepernick turnovers in 49er territory could have spelled doom, but San Francisco's defense allowed only 3 points. Thus, San Francisco, with 3:32 to go, 3 timeouts, down 23-17, needed only a touchdown to win. They moved the ball slowly but surely, converting a 4th-and-2 to RB Frank Gore, and a 11-yard strike to TE Vernon Davis to put them in the red zone with 0:30 on the clock. Every pundit and their mother nodded their head "I told you so" they nodded "this game would be close".

KEY PLAY: The key play has to be the final play. QB Colin Kaepernick made the same fatal mistake he made in the Super Bowl, he locked in on WR Michael Crabtree, felt the pressure from DE Cliff Avril and the ball was tipped by CB Richard Sherman into the hands of LB Malcom Smith. Kaepernick was stripped or intercepted on all 3 of his 4th quarter possession.

MVP: Former Stanford WR Doug Baldwin was the difference in this game. 106 receiving yards, including an improvised 51-yard bomb to set up Seattle's first points and a crucial kickoff return counter-punch to the San Francisco 33 after San Francisco had went up 17-10.

Championship Weekend 2014

New England Patriots (13-4) @ Denver Broncos (14-3)

The Chargers were still walking dejectedly off the field in the background and there was already a reporter with a microphone to QB Peyton Manning's face asking about the significance of his rivalry with QB Tom Brady. The look at Peyton's face was priceless, but he rattled off the boilerplate "well, it's not Peyton vs- Tom it's Broncos -vs Patriots" answer. True, but he knows, this is big.

It is true that this is a Patriots -vs Broncos game. These Patriots are not the seasoned champions generally associated with the Manning/Brady rivalry. In fact, there are no Patriots on the active roster that have a Patriot Super Bowl ring besides Brady. The Broncos, clearly, are an entirely different team to this rivalry than the usual Colts. Truly, the other 88 players are playing just a normal AFC Championship between #1 and #2 in the AFC.

But doesn't that just make the rivalry all the more interesting? Here are in-arguably two of the top five QBs in NFL history meeting a full 10 years after the Colts/Patriots 2003 AFC Championship. Since then, they have combined for 3 Super Bowl wins, 3 Super Bowl losses, 7 MVP awards, and have traded the passing touchdown record from Manning's 48 TDs in 2004, to Brady's 50 in 2007, to Manning's 55 this season. Everything around them has built up, fallen down and rebuilt but here they are, yet again, with two entirely different rosters competing at the very top of the AFC and a chance to solidify themselves as the best QB in NFL History.

I know some will bristle at that, maybe muttering 'Joe Montana', 'Terry Bradshaw' or 'Brett Favre' under their breath right about now. Really though, this is a chance at best QB in NFL history for both of them. A Super Bowl victory by Brady or Manning would make overwhelming cases. It would give Brady 4 championships, two other appearances, and much better stat-lines and longevity than the other 4-time champs (Montana and Bradshaw). For Manning, a 2nd championship with another team would sit impressively beside the 5 MVP awards. This game will provide one with that shot.

The game is about the two quarterbacks, it just is, whether you like it or not. These are guys who get teams to the Super Bowl. And there is only one thing that is clear between  the Broncos or Patriots., Neither team is going  to the Super Bowl without a big performance from their Hall-Of-Fame Quarterback.

KEYS FOR NE: After all the hyperbole I just wrote about legendary quarterbacks it's hilarious to come back to keys of the game and talk about the running backs. It's true though. I don't know if it will be RB LaGarette Blount, or if the Patriots will unleash another weapon in typical Patriot fashion. If there was a game for DE Chandler Jones to emerge this would be it. Nobody is going to cover all those receivers for very long and a pass rush is the formula to victory.

KEYS FOR DEN: In their previous OT loss in New England, the Broncos offense was about as hindered as it had been all season. In the bitter cold, they relied on turnovers and RB Knowshon Moreno to an early lead and collapse late to lose in OT. This game will need to involve WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Wes Welker and TE Julius Thomas much more. The Broncos main advantage will be in these players in the skill positions on the outside.

San Francisco 49ers (14-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

The two best teams in the NFL play two weeks before the Super Bowl. It's hard to argue with the power, strength and speed these two young teams have. In the last two years a red-hot rivalry has exploded on the west coast. These teams dislike each other intensely. They have split 2-2 in the last two seasons, each won the division once, and will now meet in the NFC Championship for a shot at the Super Bowl.

Coach Pete Carroll and Coach Jim Harbaugh do not like each other. They may respect each other, they may even admire the other's success but as Pete Carroll added after another coachspeak session about respecting your opponent "...but we are not friends". From their 'whats your deal?' Stanford and USC days, they are epic contrasts in sideline style. Harbaugh will throw his tempter tantrums at the referees throughout the entire game and Carroll will cheer, smirk, and smack his Bubblicious. It will make for good TV between plays. During the actual plays we will see two very similarly built teams.

Both teams are young, absolutely bursting with speed and talent on defense and offense, Before and throughout the season they have made convincing cases as the top two teams in the league. The reason is their overall roster depth and their under-rated skill players. Two of a dying breed, the workhorse backs, RB Frank Gore and RB Marshawn Lynch will wage war on the formidable front sevens. Two of the new age, QB Colin Kaepernick and QB Russell Wilson will look for the big game-changing plays through the air, or on the ground. The top two defenses in the league will search, stretch, scratch and pummel for a big turnover or stop.

The nature of the last four games has been knock-down, drag-out, wars in the trenches but both teams have enough firepower to open it up if they need to as well. Seattle's offense has struggled for the last month while San Francisco's has been red hot. Then again, San Francisco;s offense has been absolutely slaughtered in Seattle 16 total points in their last two trips. The lack of momentum on Seattle's side, the deafening noise jamming San Francisco's side. I'm willing to chalk these two factors to a draw.

KEYS FOR SF: QB Colin Kaepernick likely will need a quick start to take Seattle's crowd down a notch. Although he has insisted it is "not that loud" and that the team simply "didn't execute", he has been visibly rattled and thrown 4 interceptions to 1 garbage-time touchdown. The 49ers are up against their younger selves, they don't win without a big game from Kap.

KEYS FOR SEA: Fans, media, pundits alike are worried sick about the offense. It's the way we are. Fantasy football, offensive records, Madden games, they all revolve around what the offense is doing. With these kind of eyes, the 9-yard reception is worth a thousand times more than the 9-yard pass defended. CB Richard Sherman, S Earl Thomas, LB Bobby Wagner, DE Red Bryant, these are names that are just as important as running backs, quarterbacks or wide receivers. This is one of the best defenses of all time, and this is their biggest stage so far to prove it.