Saturday 1/5/19 (Wildcard)

Indianapolis Colts, 21 Houston Texans, 7

Andrew Luck and the efficient Colts offense put on a clinic to start the game with back-to-back 75 and 74 yard drives, eating almost the entire 1st quarter and putting 14 on the scoreboard (6-yard TD from Luck to TE Eric Ebron, and a 2-yard burst from RB Marlon Mack).

On the other hand, the Texans offense had the wobbly feel of a tight-rope walker trying to get in the groove. They appeared to get a big break when DE J.J Watt bull-rushed and tipped the ball for a Texans interception. Unfortunately, they fell yet again just one of four 3-and-outs in this game. The ball returned to Luck who added another TD drive, 65 yards ending in an 18-yard fake-post-to-the-corner-pylon strike to WR Dontrelle Inman.

This was pretty much the game. Because of QB DeShaun Watson's inaccuracy and the surging Colts running game, we devolved into 35 minutes of garbage time, live on ESPN. Watson did miss a throw at the end of the half, a 4th-1 end zone target to Hopkins, that could have brought the score to 21-7 before half. They did not manage that 7 until the 4th quarter, after four other 2nd half drives led to no points. The Colts defense put the pressure led by rookie LB Darius Leonard.

MVP : RB Marlon Mack looked impressive all game, ending with 148 rushing yards on 24 attempts. The exclamation point was on the final drive with 3:55 remaining in the game, the Texans using their 3 timeouts for one final gasp. Mack converted a hard-fought 3rd-and-2, jumped right up and rattled two more 1st downs (runs of 15 and 26 yards) to close the game without incident.

Dallas Cowboys, 24 Seattle Seahawks, 22

Both the Cowboys and Seahawks thumped their way back and forth, trading punts, and each achieving field goals in the 1st half. With 1:47 in the half, K Sebastian Janikowski added a second field goal for the Seahawks. The Cowboys, faced with a limited clock, handed the reigns to their efficient young QB who promptly drove them 65 yards for a 11-yard TD to rookie WR Michael Gallup. This was a lessen that Seahawks did not learn from until far too late.

In the 2nd half, both teams added touchdowns. Dallas led 17-14 and KR Tavon Austin returned a punt to the Seahawks 38 yard line, Prescott hit new weapon WR Amari Cooper for another 17-yards. With the Seahawks conservative run-first-no-matter-what gameplay and lack of a kicker (Janikowski injured on a long miss), the Cowboys appeared poised to go ahead a damning 10 points late in the 3rd quarter. The Ghost of the Legion Of Boom glory days returned, and LB K.J Wright intercepted Prescott in the end zone.

With 7 minutes remaining, down 3 points, the Seahawks went 3-and-out. Dallas' impressive defense has come on strong in the 2nd half of 2018, it is a formidable combo with the engine RB Ezekiel Elliot who led a 5+ minute time crunching drive culminating in Prescott's helicopter 3rd-and-14 conversation to the 1-yard line (topped with a 1-yard TD run one play later).

At this point the Seahawks finally declined to run the ball up the middle and handed the game to Russell Wilson. He drove them 65 yards in less than a minute for the TD and 2-point conversion. The onside kicker by All-Pro P Michael Dickson was just a pop-up to a downfield player, and Dallas receives their first playoff victory in the Dak/Zeke/Cooper era.

MVP : RB Ezekiel Elliot remains the engine of the Cowboys, 26 carries for 137 yards but also 5 targets, 4 receptions and 32 yards- something Dallas would have politely declined to do two years ago. QB Dak Prescott was fiery and looked crisp in his reads and decisions to run, but Elliot and the Dallas D are a match made in heaven.

Wildcard Weekend 2019

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

QB Andrew Luck and the Colts arrive into the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Luck played through a shoulder injury and a bad coach (Pagano) in 2015 and 2016. He did so much "playing through" that he missed the entirety of 2017. The rehabbed Luck and new coach (former Eagles O-Co Frank Reich) started 1-5 this season, but looked promising.

At that point, you could have been forgiven for concluding that the Colts would have one more year on before the Luck Redemption train arrived to the Playoff Station. However, to keep the metaphor going here, they loaded in the coal and got moving, 9-1 to end the season.

There's another element coming to fruition that we as NFL fans have also waited since 2014 to see.  DEs JaDeveon Clowney and J.J Watt are finally having healthy and elite season together. They have been a driving force, along with S Tyron Matheiu and CB Kareem Jackson to a Houston defense that put together their own winning streak (9 games) after starting 0-3.

The Texans are riding QB Deshaun Watson who has lived up to the hype of his 5-game, 19 touchdown flash as a rookie in 2017 (not to mention defeating Nick Saban juggernaut Alabama in 2016 National Championship). Now, he makes his debut in the NFL playoffs with little around him. He does have one of the top weapons in the NFL at least, the 115 catch, 0 drop, WR DeAndre Hopkins.

KEYS for IND : C Ryan Kelly has been a big part of the team's success both by pass-blocking skill and protection coordination. He's been in and out with a neck injury. Kelly has been cleared but will need to stay on field for Colts to contend.

KEYS for HOU : How to keep the Colts from honing in on Hopkins? Rookie WR Keke Coutee will be back after an entire season of hamstring issues. WR DeAndre Carter is there too. RB Lamar Miller has been inconsistent with the line.

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys

QB Russell Wilson has has 100 less pass attempts, rushed for 300 less yards, but thrown the same amount of touchdowns. The efficiency of the pass offense has been amazing, made possible by the dedication and success of the run game and RB Chris Carson (though RBs Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis have taken turns as well). The Seahawks in the playoffs, with a fresh new defense (except All-Pro LB Bobby Wagner) is a testament to Head Coach Pete Carrol and GM John Schneider.

The Cowboys offense has been predictable and a laughingstock for years, at some point the stubbornness wore off and the Cowboys began passing the ball to RB Ezekiel Elliot (2nd in RB targets this season) and mixing up their looks. The arrival of WR Amari Cooper in Week 9 (tased from OAK) is likely equally important, the field-tilting threat has saved QB Dak Prescott from what looked to potentially be a career-ending season if it continued on the futile path the Cowboys started.

To devote a whole paragraph to the Dallas offense really doesn't do justice to the real reason they are hosting a playoff game. Their defense has gelled, and the hallmark of every great defense is present: stars at every level. DE DeMarcus Lawrence has continued his elite pass-rush presence that he established in 2017. Rookie LBs Leighton Vander-Esch and Jalyn Smith have potentially made more of an impact on the 2018 season more than any other duo. CB Byron Jones has become a Top 5 CB.

KEYS for SEA : The Seahawks want to establish the run, slow the game down, and let their efficient QB make the play that wins the game.

KEYS for DAL : The Cowboys want to establish the run, slow the game down, and let their efficient QB make the play that wins the game.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens

A rematch of Week 16 in which the Ravens #1 defense pressed QB Phillip Rivers on 55% of passing plays. It was a wrench that the Chargers could not overcome. Meanwhile, the elite Chargers secondary (All-Pros CB Desmond King and rookie S Derwin James) and pass rushers (DE Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram) had a hard time finding their place against the run-first Ravens defense.

The Ravens will be rolling with rookie QB Lamar Jackson, making his 8th start. They've used designed Jackson runs and short option games with RBs Gus Edwards, Kenneth Dixon to control the clock and move down the field for the top special teams weapon in the NFL, K Justin Tucker.

The Chargers, as the #5 seed, had a legitimate shot at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs all the way up until the afternoon of Week 17. Although the Chargers have no home field, really- so there's debate as to whether that would have mattered. The real point is that the Chargers were a breath away from top seed in the AFC and carry in a better record (12-4) than not only the Ravens (10-6), but also the other home field wildcard team Texans (11-5) and the bye-week Patriots (11-5).

KEYS for LAC: The Chargers must hope for their stars to come through. I mentioned the defensive talent but Rivers has a good crew with him yet again, WR Keenan Allen is having another great year and RB Melvin Gordon has leveled up yet again into a top 5 RB both between the tackles and in the passing game.

KEYS for BAL : Rookie RB Leonard Fournette has clearly been nursing an injury and has not been receiving a full workload. Now is the time, because QB Blake Bortles is himself not an elite option and his WR corps is depleted due to injury. A great RB and a great Defense is still a certain recipe for advancement, Fournette needs to flash that early-season power.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

Narratively, the Eagles enter the 2019 postseason the same way the did the 2018 postseason in which they brought home their first Super Bowl. As a talented underdog with QB Nick Foles instead of their star QB Carson Wentz. Unfortunately, the Eagles don't carry the same circumstances of home-field advantage and a bye week.

The Eagles have suffered through injuries to the secondary, and of course to their QB but still have a formidable 1-2 punch. They have DT Fletcher Cox, S Malcon Jenkins and a winning attitude on defense and C Jason Kelce, T Lane Johnson lead a talented, dynamic offensive line.

The Bears seemed an unlikely preseason team to take the NFC North with Rodgers, Cousins and Stafford headlining the pass-first NFL. They countered with their own headline, a blockbuster trade (Two 1st round picks) for perennial DPOY candidate LB Khalil Mack. Mack fit perfectly into a defense already stacked with rising stars LB Leonard Floyd, and DE Akiem Hicks and benefitting from the rise of S Eddie Jackson and top 10 rookie RB Roquan Smith. The result has been an instant and sudden rise to #1 defense for the Bears.

KEYS for PHI : How can it now be the return of Big Dick Nick Foles, playoff extraordinaire?

KEYS for CHI : As seems only appropriate for the Chicago Bears franchise, they enter the playoffs for the first time in 8 years with an elite defense and a QB who must not lose the game for them. QB Mitch Trubisky's (#2 overall pick in 2017) performance will determine the outcome, one way or the other.

Sunday 1/28/18 (AFC/NFC)

New England Patriots, 23 Jacksonville Jaguars, 20

In a playoff season with a healthy dose of one-sided blowouts, QB Matt Ryan and Falcons offense steam-rolled the Packers defens to the point of embarrassment. The Falcons offense drove for 500 yards and 7 touchdowns in little more than 3 quarters before the Falcons' back-ups came to mercifully kill off rest of the 4th quarter. It was not the classic shoot-out fans were hoping for. The Packers' D was pitiful, the Falcons' D was opportunistic, and the day turned to just a rolling celebration for the city of Atlanta and the final game in Georgia Dome.

So why wasn't this game close? Why couldn't Aaron Rodgers on one of the most statistically handsome stretches of his career, keep up? WR Jordy Nelson surprised by playing well through broken ribs, TE Jared Cook was dropping passes but that's nothing new. The Falcons put up one of the most historic offensive performances of all time- but historic postseason performances is Aaron Rogers' speciality.

What may be lost as time fades is that the Packers did move the ball through the same world-class Rodgers efficiency we have seen the last two weeks but unlike the Giants and Cowboys - the Falcons defense deserves the credit for not breaking. 3 of the first 4 drives ended in a missed field goal, an red zone and a red zone interception. DE Vic Beasley and the D-line were ferocious but most importantly Atlanta defense produced big plays at crucial times. With Atlanta scoring touchdowns the Packers needed points on every drive and the Falcons did not break in the red zone until the game was out of hand.

MVP : WR Julio Jones. The Falcons continue their swiss-army attack, but not many spread offenses have a Julio Jones. Ryan is routinely hitting 8-9 different receivers per game, an arsenal of running backs, tight ends, fullbacks... and one Julio. He torched the Packers for 9 catches for 180 yards including a powerful slant-turned 73 yard TD that showcased his elite speed, elite power and toughness battling through a foot injury. Julio's dominance is not required for the Falcons to win football games, but it is a nice tool for them to have.

Philadelphia Eagles, 38 Minnesota Vikings, 7

The Vikings began the first drive efficiently, a 9-play, 75 yard drive with only one 3rd down. RBs Latavius Murray and Jerrick McKinnon were productive and QB Case Keenum capped it with a 25-yard dart to TE Kyle Rudolph. The Eagles took over and punted. On the Vikings next drive, Keenum converted a 3rd-and-10 to last week's hero WR Stefon Diggs.

I write the beginning of the game in such detail because this is right before the point at which the game essentially concludes. Two plays later on 3rd and 8, QB Case Keenum was intercepted by CB Patrick Robinson who returned 50-yards for the TD to go 7-7, midway through the 1st quarter.

The Vikings would not score another point, and the party in Philadelphia had begun. Big plays piled on, 11 yard TD for RB LaGarrette Blount, 53-yard TD bomb to WR Alshon Jeffery, another 41-yard bomb to WR Torrey Smith.

Suffocating play by S Malcom Jenkins' secondary and pressure from the rotational pass-rush units (DE Derek Barnett, DE Chris Long) had the Vikings offense entirely giving up, the Keenum yardage in the box score largely came once the game was out of hand. There was a Theilan TD taken away by replay but this just never felt like a game once Philly, the town and the team, got going.

MVP: QB Nick Foles out of absolutely nowhere with a 352, 3 TD, 0 INT masterpiece against one of the most formidable defenses of the season. Foles himself said he was "speechless". Credit obviously must go to the O-Co Frank Reich, Coach Doug Pederson and the staff but this was still unbelievable. Foles was hitting every throw from the wide open to the sidelines, seams and flats. Maybe that 2013 season wasn't so flukey after all.

Championship Weekend 2018

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots

Standing between QB Tom Brady, Coach Bill Belihick and their 8th Super Bowl appearance are the Jaguars tenacious defensive superstars and the health of Tom Brady's hand. We won't know the extent of the injury because of the Patriots careful shroud of secrecy. Legitimate outcomes from this week's media coverage range from "actually serious and needing QB Brian Hoyer" to "not an issue in any way". Tune in!

QB Tom Brady and the Patriots are their usual blend of unheralded playmakers on offense (RB Dion Lewis, RB James White) and a disciplined but sometimes over-matched defense. Seven straight AFC Championships, wow. It goes without saying the Patriots have the edge of experience. The Jaguars will be the underdogs on the road but they come into the game with pure talent on defense in the secondary with CB A.J Bouye and rumors that perhaps CB Jalen Ramsey could cover the Patriots' All Pro TE Rob Gronkowski.

Do the Jaguars have any chance? I lean towards no. The Jaguars have the fresh name and faces but I feel it important to note that they are still only the 3rd-best defense left in the playoffs (Vikings/Eagles). The narrative is that this is Brady's biggest test in years. Is it though? This team just gave up 42 to the Steelers, and was roasted by the 49ers in December The 2017 Jaguars do not carry with them into the AFC Championship anything remotely resembling the 2015 Broncos or the 2013 Seahawks who were historically great all season. Rather, they have a chance similar to 2012 Ravens or the 2009 Saints, who were above-average defenses and became historic at the perfect time in the Championships and Super Bowl.

KEYS FOR JAX : I've been typing into the 'Keys For ___' section for years : generate pressure on Brady with the four down rushers. Why have Tom Brady and Co won so many Super Bowls if everyone knows this? Because it's easier said than done. Also, it's the weakness for every team. The real point of saying 'need pressure with front four' is to say 'don't try anything else'. There's no complex zone coverage or blitz scheme that will work - you have to do it the obvious way. To say the Jaguars have the personnel is an understatement- they have some of the top rushers in the league (DE Calais Campbell, DT Malick Jackson etc).

KEYS FOR NE : The game is in the hands of QB Tom Brady. Can he put up the Miracle Show points like the Steelers did? Or will he break the Jags' will on a few uptempo drives? The Patriot defense focus is on stopping the Jaguars formidable rushing dominance that they sparked in the 1st half of the Divisional round. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles

The NFC continues to be a see-saw of gritty defensive match-ups and high-flying shoot-outs. After the Rodgers/Ryan shoot out last year, we get two of the best defenses and supporting casts carrying backup QBs to within one game of the Super Bowl. It is important to distinguish that QB Case Keenum has been much more a part of the Vikings' success than Eagles QB Nick Foles has been to the Eagles. This is as unique of a Championship game as you could ask for. It reminds me more of a big College Bowl where the QBs are secondary plot lines to the massively talented overall rosters.

Coach Mike Zimmer's Vikings defense is the best in the league, S Harrison Smith is a maniac, CB Xavier Rhodes is elite, the LBs and D-line have incredible discipline and the speed to make any play in any spot. They have put up historic numbers with a low 3rd down conversion rate of 25.2 percent. I only bring that up to mention the last time that had a percentage that low- the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.

We have talked enough about Foles and the offense. We are ignoring why the Eagles have not faded into the night after the Wentz injury, the defense. While the Vikings have the defensive stars, the Eagles have the crowd noise (whether they be screaming from inside under-dog masks or not). S Malcom Jenkins controls a respectable secondary but the reason the Eagles are formidable is because they have a defensive line rotation around superstar DT Fletcher Cox that has provided the most relentless and frightening rush in the NFL this season with DEs Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Derrick Barnett and Chris Long rooting in and out and creating havoc from the outside. This is not even accounting for Cox and his fellow big men on the inside (DTs Timmy Jernigan and Beau Allen).

KEYS FOR MIN: The Vikings will again hope to the play-makers WRs Stefon Diggs, Adam Theilan or RB Jerrick McKinnon to help them against the equally productive Eagles. The Vikings O-line is vulnerable so sustaining drives against the pass rush of Philadelphia will be tough. Big plays will soothe that weakness, and the Vikings have the personnel to make that happen.

KEYS FOR PHI: Nick Files simply has to avoid a historically bad day. That seems like a low bar but against a defense so quick and so disciplined, Foles will need to either play better or Coach Doug Peterson must put the ball on the ground more often with RBs LaGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi.

Sunday 1/14/18 (Divisional)

Jacksonville Jaguars, 45 Pittsburgh Steelers, 42

The Jaguars looked like a seasoned cold-weather, northern juggernaut with big offensive-line packages and RB Leonard Fournette rolling. Three predominately rushing drives resulted in a commanding 21-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter. The Pittsburgh offense was the opposite, a frayed high-wire act who had gained only 1 first down with 1 INT to LB Myles Jack.

The thing about high-wire acts is that when they work, they astound! QB Ben Rothlisberger and his Miracle Show broke the shut-out with a dime TD into perfect coverage by CB A.J Bouye to the Amazing WR Antonio Brown. The Jaguars then punted. At 21-7, with the Steelers' offense awake, and Fournette now out with an ankle injury, viewers felt the inevitable Pittsburgh comeback on the horizon.

Bad Rothlisberger fumbled, recovered by Telvin Smith and returned for a TD. The 21-point Jacksonville lead was resorted! Then, Good Rothlisberger on 4th-and-11 with 32 seconds hit WR Martinis Bryant deep for a 36-yard over-the shoulder end zone strike. The 21-point lead erased. 28-14 and halftime.

Big Ben's Show took on the vicious Jacksonville defense, culminating in another high degree-of-difficulty 19-yard TD reception to RB Le'Veon Bell that any WR would envy. Now 28-21, viewers again resigned themselves to the inevitable Pittsburgh comeback.

The most surprising aspect of this game is not the magical Ben-to-Brown/Bell/Bryant moments but the Jaguars' offense and QB Blake Bortles continuing to drive and produce in the wild, terrible towel atmosphere with Fournette on one ankle  To start the 4th quarter, Bortles took his deep shot to WR Keelan Cole for 43 yards. Fournette then punched in the 35-21 TD.

Rothlisberger and Brown responded accordingly- with their own dramatic 43-yard TD on 4th-and-5 again with perfect blanket coverage by All-Pro CB A.J Bouye. 35-28. Yet still, Jacksonville simply drove the ball again. A 40-yard screen to RB T.J Yeldon and yet another red zone conversion this one the classic Bortles-to-FB Tommy Bohanon connection. 42-28. The ol' ringleader Rothlisberger still had another one in him, another high-wire drive with a TD to RB Le'Veon Bell with 2:27 remaining. 42-35. A back-and-forth classic, with no lead changes.

The difference in degree-of-difficulty for the offenses was plain to see. Rothlisberger was performing miracles against the speed and tenacity of Jacksonville, while Jacksonville had their way with a weak Pittsburgh D all day. Perhaps it was for this reason that Coach Mike Tomlin opted for the onside kick which led directly to a Jacksonville field goal that sealed the game.

MVP : RBs Leonard Fournette and T.J Yeldon combined to reap the rewards of a Jacksonville O-line that dominated Pittsburgh's front 7. Sustaining the Jacksonville drives was the key ingredient to staving of Big Ben's Miracle Show.

Minnesota Vikings, 29 New Orleans Saints, 24

The Vikings had a blueprint first half for how to "Defend The North" (Super Bowl 52 is in Minnesota this year). QB Case Keenum moved the ball well for 17 points, a pair of TDs for each of RBs Jerrick McKinnon and Latavius Murray. The Vikings defense was impenetrable, even for Drew Brees.

Saturday 1/13/18 (Divisional)

Philadelphia Eagles, 15 Atlanta Falcons, 10

How do you win a playoff game when you have to play a subpar back-up QB Nick Foles playing for your injured MVP candidate? The answer is simple - have his worst throws somehow turn out to be his best plays. A ridiculous duck of a deep bomb that resulted in 42-yard pass interference simply because the ball was so off-target. An incompetent over-throw bounce off a safety (who was rightly unprepared) into WR Torrey Smith in stride for a the biggest gain of the day. Whether it be a rabbit's foot or some other lucky charm, Foles may want to hang onto it.

RBs Jay Ajayi and LaGarrette Blount turned in solid 1st and 2nd half performances, respectively. The Eagles struggled to move the ball against the Falcons. Luckily, their defense highlighted by DT Fletcher Cox suffocated the shell of the Falcons. The Eagles' defense held the Falcons to a piddling 281 total yards, 4/13 on 3rd down.

QB Matt Ryan and his arsenal that got him named MVP in 2016 were on the field. Same names, but a drastic drop in productivity. When the Eagles kicked the 15-10 field goal with 5:57 remaining it was finally time to fuel up the Julio Express, they drove to the 2-yard line with 1 minute remaining, Julio Jones had 4 catches for 56 yards on the drive.

When it came to 4th down, Matt Ryan rolled to his right but the Eagles were all over Julio Jones. It was a curious play call to have only three receiving options (Jones, Sanu, and FB Derrick Coleman) because the Eagles were able to essentially double and triple team Sanu and Jones. The roll-out away from Coleman made him irrelevant. The perfect encapsulation of a poorly coordinated 2017 season by O-Co Steve Sarkisan.

MVP : Give the honor officially to K Jake Elliot? Why not? Even though he missed an XP, in a game of two offenses struggling, the Eagles converted every precious field goal attempt in a stadium known for swirling winds and grass conditions. Julio Jones really deserved the award but needed only to have made that final catch. He still finished with 100 yards and 2 prevented interceptions.

New England Patriots, 35 Tennessee Titans, 14

Commence boilerplate Patriot Divisional blowout paragraphs.

Tom Brady's 26th playoff win comes at the expense of the Tennessee Titans. The Patriots continue to roll through the AFC on their way to their 7th-straight AFC Championship. Not only is that a record but it's not even the most successful stretch of the Belichick/Brady regime unless they win two more games and tie their previous 3-Super Bowl stretch of 2001-2004. RB Dion Lewis had 141 yards and WR Danny Amendola took the role of patented patriot patriot performer with 11 receptions for 112 yards.

The Titans were fortunate to make this somewhat of a game in the first half. QB Marcus Mariota hit WR Corey Davis for his first career touchdown for a 7-0 lead. Ultimately this was just smoke and field goal mirrors. The Patriots scored 35 straight points until Corey Davis got his 2nd career touchdown in complete and total garbage time late in the 4th quarter.

Be it TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Chris Hogan, RB James White (with 2 TDs) the Patriots' offense was unpredictable. The defense, a liability at times this season, was effective- particularly CB Stephen Gillmore and S Devin McCourty shoring up the secondary.

Why can the AFC not muster up a challenging Divisional opponent for New England? In 7 years, the only competitive game was the 2014 Ravens.

MVP : QB Tom Brady surged back into form with 337 yards and 3 TDs in a game entirely controlled by the Patriot offense.

Divisional Weekend 2018

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles

What could have been. A battle between 2016 MVP Matt Ryan and what certainly would have been 2017 MVP Carson Wentz if he had not torn his ACL in Week 14 of his breakout season. Instead, the Falcons carry their flawed offense into Philadelphia's formidable roster without it's head.

The Eagles certainly earned their #1 seed and rolled to 13-3 this season, but with QB Nick Foles now at the helm instead of the breakout Wentz, excitement is muted. They still carry one of the top D-lines led by DE Fletcher Cox, a stable of decent passing game weapons headlined by WR Alshon Jeffery and TE Zach Ertz and a good O-line with an swiss-army selection of rushers in RBs LaGarrette Blount, Corey Clement and transplant RB Jay Ajayi (traded from Miami).

The Falcons greatest hope may actually lie with their defense which continues to perform decently under Coach Dan Quinn. While the Matt Ryan/Julio Jones offense continues to carry top-billing, residue from the amazing season and playoff run last season, the Falcons sure tackling helped them defeat one powerhouse offense already this postseason.

KEYS for ATL : RB Tevin Coleman is seeing an increase in snaps, he has looked sharp and the decreased usage seems to do wonders for DaVonta Freeman. In the pantheons of NFL RB duos, Coleman and Freeman continue to have a unique symbiotic relation where one back will take the brunt volume while the other steps in for a fury of success.

KEYS for PHI : The Eagles have to get pressure on Matt Ryan and make it count. Ryan was able to withstand the Rams' relentless rush, the Eagles will need to also get through and make it count with sacks, turnovers or other assorted big plays. Nick Foles is highly unlikely to defeat anyone without some big plays on defense.

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots

The Patriots are favored by 13.5. That should say enough about this battle in cold Foxborough. If the Titans have truly had something click - if a Mariota/Henry unlocking of Heisman magic has occurred - then this is the stage. The shakiness of the Titans' 1st half and even the lucky moments of the comeback against the Chiefs has not instilled confidence in anyone.

QB Tom Brady and Coach Bill Belichick are working to get to their 7th straight AFC Championship. That should say enough about the Patriots. This season they've continued to use a multi-headed RB monster of Dion Lewis, James White joined by Rex Burkhead. TE Rob Gronkowski and speedster WR Brandin Cooks give the offense a potent kick. While the offense has been better, there are two concerns. First, the defense has gone through stretches- whether through injury or not- in which they can legitimately be described as one of the worst in the NFL. Second, Tom Brady has not had an excellent December amid a mysterious Achilles injury

KEYS for TEN : RB Derrick Henry and the Tennessee O-line will need to take over the game. The Tennessee Titans have nothing to write home about on defense. The best defense in the Wildcard round was that Tennessee just kept the ball. If Henry and the O-line, Mariota's efficient conversions, can give the Titans an amazing time of possession advantage, than that is a script in which this pipe dream could be achieved.

KEYS for NE : The health of QB Tom Brady is obviously something that is crucial, but he may not need to be utilized. The Patriots defense cannot regress to it's form earlier in the season or in an injury-riddle patch this fall. A respectable performance is all that Belichick needs. I'd take those odds.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers

QB Ben Rothlisberger threw 5 interceptions to the teal and... (beige?) in Week 5. Although RB Le'Veon Bell has stated the Steelers perhaps looked past the Jaguars, the issue was primarily coaching. The Jaguars strength is pass defense, and the Steelers refused to do anything but pass. RB Leonard Fournette was a force in that game, 181 yards (a dramatic 90-yard clincher in the 4th).

It is that same elite running game/pass defense combo that the Jaguars are hoping gets hot here towards the Super Bowl. Just the fact that we are talking about the Jaguars and the Super Bowl is amazing. QB Blake Bortles may not have much going after an abysmal Wildcard, but the defense is red hot, ready to melt and mold some steel.

Do the Steelers have the best WR and RB in the league? Still yes. RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown had exactly the type of seasons you'd expect from two studs in their prime. Brown is dealing with a partially torn calf sustained against the Patriots in December. There has been awakening, rookie WR Juju Smith-Schuster has thrived all season in the gaps of a defense left by Bell and Brown. While it may seem easy to say or write that, many other ancillary Steelers weapons have not been able to do just that. 

KEYS for JAX: Swarming defense and elite running game, as stated above.

KEYS for PIT : Pittsburgh's trajectory over the past few seasons has been about overcoming New England in the twilight of Rothlisberger's career. The offensive weapons need to perform and stay healthy. The defense started the season as a strength and is verging on a liability after the injury to LB Ryan Shazier.

New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings

If the Ghost Of Brett Favre is going to haunt anything away from Green Bay and Lambeau field, it's a playoff matchup between the Saints and the Vikings. In the 2009 NFCC Favre threw an unfortunate interception to send the Vikings to the crushing NFCC defeat they seem to endure every decade (1987, 1998, 2009).

Can this be a season or unlikely redemption for Minnesota? The Vikings lost starting QB Sam Bradford in Week 2, and their high-performing rookie phenom RB Dalvin Cook in Week 4. Before the injuries, the Vikings looked unstoppable. In an unusual twist on the early QB/RB injuries to a contender plot, the Vikings just kept it going. QB Case Keenum, and the excellent duo WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilan have kept it rolling, especially at home the new Vikings stadium. The Vikings defense with S Harrison Smith, LB Anthony Barr and a packed stable of playmakers has been healthy, and elite.

The Saints come into town again carrying their HOF-level air attack with QB Drew Brees and WR Michael Thomas. They have spent the 7-8 years in between, languishing without a defense of a successful ground game. With RBs Alvin Kamera and Mark Ingram, and a sturdy O-line (though will be missing one of their starting guards) the rushing strength is back. With DE Cameron Jordan and a steady pass-rush that showed up in the Carolina Wildcard late, and CB Marshawn Lattimore leading a  much-improved secondary, the defense is finally not consensus #32 and the reward has been this rematch with Minnesota.

KEYS for NO : Time to get the running game going. There are no soft teams left to exploit, Kamera and Ingram will have to run over a physical, disciplined defense- that's the playoffs.

KEYS for MIN : Minnesota has been high-flying at home, Stefon Diggs, Adam Theilan and TE Kyle Rudolph have been masters of the Case Keenum Show. What's the main difference between Bradford and Keenum? Risk-taking. The worst thing the Vikings could do is try to bottle up Keenum into a conservative Bradford-esque approach. They have resisted it so far, but the Brett Favre ghost lingers. As difficult as it may feel- you've got to let Keenum channel his inner Fave, let it rip.