Divisional Weekend 2018

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles

What could have been. A battle between 2016 MVP Matt Ryan and what certainly would have been 2017 MVP Carson Wentz if he had not torn his ACL in Week 14 of his breakout season. Instead, the Falcons carry their flawed offense into Philadelphia's formidable roster without it's head.

The Eagles certainly earned their #1 seed and rolled to 13-3 this season, but with QB Nick Foles now at the helm instead of the breakout Wentz, excitement is muted. They still carry one of the top D-lines led by DE Fletcher Cox, a stable of decent passing game weapons headlined by WR Alshon Jeffery and TE Zach Ertz and a good O-line with an swiss-army selection of rushers in RBs LaGarrette Blount, Corey Clement and transplant RB Jay Ajayi (traded from Miami).

The Falcons greatest hope may actually lie with their defense which continues to perform decently under Coach Dan Quinn. While the Matt Ryan/Julio Jones offense continues to carry top-billing, residue from the amazing season and playoff run last season, the Falcons sure tackling helped them defeat one powerhouse offense already this postseason.

KEYS for ATL : RB Tevin Coleman is seeing an increase in snaps, he has looked sharp and the decreased usage seems to do wonders for DaVonta Freeman. In the pantheons of NFL RB duos, Coleman and Freeman continue to have a unique symbiotic relation where one back will take the brunt volume while the other steps in for a fury of success.

KEYS for PHI : The Eagles have to get pressure on Matt Ryan and make it count. Ryan was able to withstand the Rams' relentless rush, the Eagles will need to also get through and make it count with sacks, turnovers or other assorted big plays. Nick Foles is highly unlikely to defeat anyone without some big plays on defense.

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots

The Patriots are favored by 13.5. That should say enough about this battle in cold Foxborough. If the Titans have truly had something click - if a Mariota/Henry unlocking of Heisman magic has occurred - then this is the stage. The shakiness of the Titans' 1st half and even the lucky moments of the comeback against the Chiefs has not instilled confidence in anyone.

QB Tom Brady and Coach Bill Belichick are working to get to their 7th straight AFC Championship. That should say enough about the Patriots. This season they've continued to use a multi-headed RB monster of Dion Lewis, James White joined by Rex Burkhead. TE Rob Gronkowski and speedster WR Brandin Cooks give the offense a potent kick. While the offense has been better, there are two concerns. First, the defense has gone through stretches- whether through injury or not- in which they can legitimately be described as one of the worst in the NFL. Second, Tom Brady has not had an excellent December amid a mysterious Achilles injury

KEYS for TEN : RB Derrick Henry and the Tennessee O-line will need to take over the game. The Tennessee Titans have nothing to write home about on defense. The best defense in the Wildcard round was that Tennessee just kept the ball. If Henry and the O-line, Mariota's efficient conversions, can give the Titans an amazing time of possession advantage, than that is a script in which this pipe dream could be achieved.

KEYS for NE : The health of QB Tom Brady is obviously something that is crucial, but he may not need to be utilized. The Patriots defense cannot regress to it's form earlier in the season or in an injury-riddle patch this fall. A respectable performance is all that Belichick needs. I'd take those odds.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers

QB Ben Rothlisberger threw 5 interceptions to the teal and... (beige?) in Week 5. Although RB Le'Veon Bell has stated the Steelers perhaps looked past the Jaguars, the issue was primarily coaching. The Jaguars strength is pass defense, and the Steelers refused to do anything but pass. RB Leonard Fournette was a force in that game, 181 yards (a dramatic 90-yard clincher in the 4th).

It is that same elite running game/pass defense combo that the Jaguars are hoping gets hot here towards the Super Bowl. Just the fact that we are talking about the Jaguars and the Super Bowl is amazing. QB Blake Bortles may not have much going after an abysmal Wildcard, but the defense is red hot, ready to melt and mold some steel.

Do the Steelers have the best WR and RB in the league? Still yes. RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown had exactly the type of seasons you'd expect from two studs in their prime. Brown is dealing with a partially torn calf sustained against the Patriots in December. There has been awakening, rookie WR Juju Smith-Schuster has thrived all season in the gaps of a defense left by Bell and Brown. While it may seem easy to say or write that, many other ancillary Steelers weapons have not been able to do just that. 

KEYS for JAX: Swarming defense and elite running game, as stated above.

KEYS for PIT : Pittsburgh's trajectory over the past few seasons has been about overcoming New England in the twilight of Rothlisberger's career. The offensive weapons need to perform and stay healthy. The defense started the season as a strength and is verging on a liability after the injury to LB Ryan Shazier.

New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings

If the Ghost Of Brett Favre is going to haunt anything away from Green Bay and Lambeau field, it's a playoff matchup between the Saints and the Vikings. In the 2009 NFCC Favre threw an unfortunate interception to send the Vikings to the crushing NFCC defeat they seem to endure every decade (1987, 1998, 2009).

Can this be a season or unlikely redemption for Minnesota? The Vikings lost starting QB Sam Bradford in Week 2, and their high-performing rookie phenom RB Dalvin Cook in Week 4. Before the injuries, the Vikings looked unstoppable. In an unusual twist on the early QB/RB injuries to a contender plot, the Vikings just kept it going. QB Case Keenum, and the excellent duo WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilan have kept it rolling, especially at home the new Vikings stadium. The Vikings defense with S Harrison Smith, LB Anthony Barr and a packed stable of playmakers has been healthy, and elite.

The Saints come into town again carrying their HOF-level air attack with QB Drew Brees and WR Michael Thomas. They have spent the 7-8 years in between, languishing without a defense of a successful ground game. With RBs Alvin Kamera and Mark Ingram, and a sturdy O-line (though will be missing one of their starting guards) the rushing strength is back. With DE Cameron Jordan and a steady pass-rush that showed up in the Carolina Wildcard late, and CB Marshawn Lattimore leading a  much-improved secondary, the defense is finally not consensus #32 and the reward has been this rematch with Minnesota.

KEYS for NO : Time to get the running game going. There are no soft teams left to exploit, Kamera and Ingram will have to run over a physical, disciplined defense- that's the playoffs.

KEYS for MIN : Minnesota has been high-flying at home, Stefon Diggs, Adam Theilan and TE Kyle Rudolph have been masters of the Case Keenum Show. What's the main difference between Bradford and Keenum? Risk-taking. The worst thing the Vikings could do is try to bottle up Keenum into a conservative Bradford-esque approach. They have resisted it so far, but the Brett Favre ghost lingers. As difficult as it may feel- you've got to let Keenum channel his inner Fave, let it rip.