Championship Weekend 2018

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots

Standing between QB Tom Brady, Coach Bill Belihick and their 8th Super Bowl appearance are the Jaguars tenacious defensive superstars and the health of Tom Brady's hand. We won't know the extent of the injury because of the Patriots careful shroud of secrecy. Legitimate outcomes from this week's media coverage range from "actually serious and needing QB Brian Hoyer" to "not an issue in any way". Tune in!

QB Tom Brady and the Patriots are their usual blend of unheralded playmakers on offense (RB Dion Lewis, RB James White) and a disciplined but sometimes over-matched defense. Seven straight AFC Championships, wow. It goes without saying the Patriots have the edge of experience. The Jaguars will be the underdogs on the road but they come into the game with pure talent on defense in the secondary with CB A.J Bouye and rumors that perhaps CB Jalen Ramsey could cover the Patriots' All Pro TE Rob Gronkowski.

Do the Jaguars have any chance? I lean towards no. The Jaguars have the fresh name and faces but I feel it important to note that they are still only the 3rd-best defense left in the playoffs (Vikings/Eagles). The narrative is that this is Brady's biggest test in years. Is it though? This team just gave up 42 to the Steelers, and was roasted by the 49ers in December The 2017 Jaguars do not carry with them into the AFC Championship anything remotely resembling the 2015 Broncos or the 2013 Seahawks who were historically great all season. Rather, they have a chance similar to 2012 Ravens or the 2009 Saints, who were above-average defenses and became historic at the perfect time in the Championships and Super Bowl.

KEYS FOR JAX : I've been typing into the 'Keys For ___' section for years : generate pressure on Brady with the four down rushers. Why have Tom Brady and Co won so many Super Bowls if everyone knows this? Because it's easier said than done. Also, it's the weakness for every team. The real point of saying 'need pressure with front four' is to say 'don't try anything else'. There's no complex zone coverage or blitz scheme that will work - you have to do it the obvious way. To say the Jaguars have the personnel is an understatement- they have some of the top rushers in the league (DE Calais Campbell, DT Malick Jackson etc).

KEYS FOR NE : The game is in the hands of QB Tom Brady. Can he put up the Miracle Show points like the Steelers did? Or will he break the Jags' will on a few uptempo drives? The Patriot defense focus is on stopping the Jaguars formidable rushing dominance that they sparked in the 1st half of the Divisional round. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles

The NFC continues to be a see-saw of gritty defensive match-ups and high-flying shoot-outs. After the Rodgers/Ryan shoot out last year, we get two of the best defenses and supporting casts carrying backup QBs to within one game of the Super Bowl. It is important to distinguish that QB Case Keenum has been much more a part of the Vikings' success than Eagles QB Nick Foles has been to the Eagles. This is as unique of a Championship game as you could ask for. It reminds me more of a big College Bowl where the QBs are secondary plot lines to the massively talented overall rosters.

Coach Mike Zimmer's Vikings defense is the best in the league, S Harrison Smith is a maniac, CB Xavier Rhodes is elite, the LBs and D-line have incredible discipline and the speed to make any play in any spot. They have put up historic numbers with a low 3rd down conversion rate of 25.2 percent. I only bring that up to mention the last time that had a percentage that low- the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.

We have talked enough about Foles and the offense. We are ignoring why the Eagles have not faded into the night after the Wentz injury, the defense. While the Vikings have the defensive stars, the Eagles have the crowd noise (whether they be screaming from inside under-dog masks or not). S Malcom Jenkins controls a respectable secondary but the reason the Eagles are formidable is because they have a defensive line rotation around superstar DT Fletcher Cox that has provided the most relentless and frightening rush in the NFL this season with DEs Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Derrick Barnett and Chris Long rooting in and out and creating havoc from the outside. This is not even accounting for Cox and his fellow big men on the inside (DTs Timmy Jernigan and Beau Allen).

KEYS FOR MIN: The Vikings will again hope to the play-makers WRs Stefon Diggs, Adam Theilan or RB Jerrick McKinnon to help them against the equally productive Eagles. The Vikings O-line is vulnerable so sustaining drives against the pass rush of Philadelphia will be tough. Big plays will soothe that weakness, and the Vikings have the personnel to make that happen.

KEYS FOR PHI: Nick Files simply has to avoid a historically bad day. That seems like a low bar but against a defense so quick and so disciplined, Foles will need to either play better or Coach Doug Peterson must put the ball on the ground more often with RBs LaGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi.