Divisional Weekend 2019

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have had little playoff success in the Super Bowl era, they have a measly 4 playoff victories since their 1969 Super Bowl IV yet somehow they never seem to be lumped in that cursed category of the Bengals (5), Browns (4), or Lions (1). In the same timeframe since Super Bowl IV, the Carolina Panthers (9) and Jacksonville Jaguars (7) have more victories in 25 fewer years of existence. For the real hit, divisional rivals Broncos (23), Raiders (22), and even Chargers (11) out-pace the Chiefs significantly.

But damnit, if things just don't feel different with their star QB Patrick Mahomes in his 2nd year, first year of action. Mahomes is the 3rd player ever to throw 50 touchdowns (the other two being Tom Brady and Peyton Manning at their absolute peaks, for crying out loud). It's a perfect storm of a star, and All-Pro caliber play of big play extraordinaire WR Tyreek Hill, elite TE Travis Kelce and the "final form" of Coach Andy Reid's innovative personnel package offense.

Arrowhead will be rocking, but so will the Colts who have overcome starting 1-5 to the Final 8. There was once a day when QB Andrew Luck was the generational QB star to rival Peyton and Brady, it would be quite the statement to knock off the 50-TD kid the same way he last knocked the Chiefs out of the playoffs in 2014. The Colts O-line, and smart, efficient scheme was impressive- they still face an uphill battle.

KEYS for IND : Slowing down Mahomes and the Chiefs is about the best the Colts D can hope for, but an early lead and the same kind of drive-sustaining short passing game from Luck and Reich's efficient system would make it much easier.

KEYS for KC : The trio of D-linemen Chris Jones, Justin Houston and Dee Ford have been some of the very best despite the KC defense not impressing all season. With the home crowd behind them, they must get there, change the game.

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams

The Cowboys are burning bright with a defensive front that has some burgeoning stars on all levels. They also have a triplet-esque groups with QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliot and WR Amari Cooper. Meanwhile, the Rams have not impressed since the Week 11 Monday Night Football fireworks show with the Chiefs.

Even on this cross-section of Recency Bias Ave and Narrative Street, there is plenty of confidence that Coach Sean McVay will have his coming-out party after many of the 7 coaching vacancies in the last two weeks were filled by folks who have very similar resumes to Mr. McVay. The Rams will be looking for the offense to return to it's regular season glory, for RB Todd Gurley to return to form after missing Weeks 16 & 17, and for QB Jared Goff to resume the wide-open WRs Robert Woods or Brandin Cooks.

KEYS for DAL : RB Ezekiel Elliot is being utilized in all facets. This is not the time to shut down, it's time to continue to open up the Dallas offense. The Cowboys also have the personnel, especially at Linebacker, to perform what the Ram-killing scheme the Bears utilized in Week 16. To dare the team to run the ball.

KEYS for LAR : Besides the obvious need for the offense to be in top form we haven't seen in weeks, there is also the fact that the best player in the NFL resides on this team, DT Aaron Donald (and DT Ndamukong Suh as well) could also wreck the game from that side.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

The Los Angeles Chargers draw the "10am-game-for-a-west-coast-team" card again. In the past this has apparently affected teams, but the Chargers are a little different. The Chargers are ramblers, they have no home. The Stub Hub Arena in Los Angeles has been little more than a destination game for the opposing teams' fans.

The snow could be falling, the cold front is coming in, and yet the Chargers continue to move on. The defense has considerable talent from DEs Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa to All-Pro S Derwin James and CB Desmond King.

QB Tom Brady and Coach Bill Belichick are certainly the favorites, but New England has looked shakier on offense and defense combined than ever before.  Can the WRs and RBs for the Patriots win any match-ups? WR Julian Edelman is certainly a factor in the middle, but RBs Sony Michel, James White and WRs Chris Hogan, Coddarrale Patterson are not the elite match-up issues that they theoretically hand with TE Rob Gronkowski (fading skills) and WR Josh Gordon (suspended and banned from the NFL).

KEYS for LAC: The health of RB Melvin Gordon and WR Keenan Allen, big plays will be needed to take down the Patriots at home.

KEYS for NE: Tom Brady is 41, the question is simply will he be Brady? If so, the AFC playoffs have historically been very good to him.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

Nick Foles Magic- is it real? Foles has been the underdog in every one of his four playoff victories, at what point do we start to believe? Has a career ever had this trajectory before? Foles had big numbers in 2013, a slight drop-off in 2014, before failing miserably as a starting QB for the Rams. Having failed to meet the "franchise QB" expectations, he eventually settled into the classic journeyman role back with the Eagles. Except this time, he's back.

To be fair, this is more narrative than fact. Last year's insane performances in the NFCC and Super Bowl make his other two playoff wins appear to be more than they are. Foles was still an average QB in the wildcard round and should certainly be considered nowhere near the skill of Saints QB Drew Brees.

The Saints have the even attack with RBs Alvin Kamera and Mark Ingram, WR Michael Thomas, a good O-line and the impeccable Brees. The defense has also improved throughout the season, getting solid work from all three levels and will have the added benefit of a rocking Superdome.

KEYS for PHI : The Eagles' pass rush can be rendered meaningless by Brees' quick release as we saw in Week 11 when the Saints rolled over the Eagles 48-7. Philadelphia needs competence out of their banged-up secondary. Any level of coverage that can turn the focus towards the pass rush will be important.

KEYS for NO : The offense has been elite for 13 seasons, the difference for the Saints is always the defense. The Saints defense was touted as a comeback unit in 2017, but 2018 hasn't had the same accolades. They've slowly improved over the season, the talent is there. A Super Bowl run for the Saints likely lies in the question - will the defense make plays?