Wednesday, January 2, 2019

Wildcard Weekend 2019

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans


QB Andrew Luck and the Colts arrive into the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Luck played through a shoulder injury and a bad coach (Pagano) in 2015 and 2016. He did so much "playing through" that he missed the entirety of 2017. The rehabbed Luck and new coach (former Eagles O-Co Frank Reich) started 1-5 this season, but looked promising.

At that point, you could have been forgiven for concluding that the Colts would have one more year on before the Luck Redemption train arrived to the Playoff Station. However, to keep the metaphor going here, they loaded in the coal and got moving, 9-1 to end the season.

There's another element coming to fruition that we as NFL fans have also waited since 2014 to see.  DEs JaDeveon Clowney and J.J Watt are finally having healthy and elite season together. They have been a driving force, along with S Tyron Matheiu and CB Kareem Jackson to a Houston defense that put together their own winning streak (9 games) after starting 0-3.

The Texans are riding QB Deshaun Watson who has lived up to the hype of his 5-game, 19 touchdown flash as a rookie in 2017 (not to mention defeating Nick Saban juggernaut Alabama in 2016 National Championship). Now, he makes his debut in the NFL playoffs with little around him. He does have one of the top weapons in the NFL at least, the 115 catch, 0 drop, WR DeAndre Hopkins.

KEYS for IND : C Ryan Kelly has been a big part of the team's success both by pass-blocking skill and protection coordination. He's been in and out with a neck injury. Kelly has been cleared but will need to stay on field for Colts to contend.

KEYS for HOU : How to keep the Colts from honing in on Hopkins? Rookie WR Keke Coutee will be back after an entire season of hamstring issues. WR DeAndre Carter is there too. RB Lamar Miller has been inconsistent with the line.

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys


QB Russell Wilson has has 100 less pass attempts, rushed for 300 less yards, but thrown the same amount of touchdowns. The efficiency of the pass offense has been amazing, made possible by the dedication and success of the run game and RB Chris Carson (though RBs Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis have taken turns as well). The Seahawks in the playoffs, with a fresh new defense (except All-Pro LB Bobby Wagner) is a testament to Head Coach Pete Carrol and GM John Schneider.

The Cowboys offense has been predictable and a laughingstock for years, at some point the stubbornness wore off and the Cowboys began passing the ball to RB Ezekiel Elliot (2nd in RB targets this season) and mixing up their looks. The arrival of WR Amari Cooper in Week 9 (tased from OAK) is likely equally important, the field-tilting threat has saved QB Dak Prescott from what looked to potentially be a career-ending season if it continued on the futile path the Cowboys started.

To devote a whole paragraph to the Dallas offense really doesn't do justice to the real reason they are hosting a playoff game. Their defense has gelled, and the hallmark of every great defense is present: stars at every level. DE DeMarcus Lawrence has continued his elite pass-rush presence that he established in 2017. Rookie LBs Leighton Vander-Esch and Jalyn Smith have potentially made more of an impact on the 2018 season more than any other duo. CB Byron Jones has become a Top 5 CB.

KEYS for SEA : The Seahawks want to establish the run, slow the game down, and let their efficient QB make the play that wins the game.

KEYS for DAL : The Cowboys want to establish the run, slow the game down, and let their efficient QB make the play that wins the game.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens


A rematch of Week 16 in which the Ravens #1 defense pressed QB Phillip Rivers on 55% of passing plays. It was a wrench that the Chargers could not overcome. Meanwhile, the elite Chargers secondary (All-Pros CB Desmond King and rookie S Derwin James) and pass rushers (DE Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram) had a hard time finding their place against the run-first Ravens defense.

The Ravens will be rolling with rookie QB Lamar Jackson, making his 8th start. They've used designed Jackson runs and short option games with RBs Gus Edwards, Kenneth Dixon to control the clock and move down the field for the top special teams weapon in the NFL, K Justin Tucker.

The Chargers, as the #5 seed, had a legitimate shot at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs all the way up until the afternoon of Week 17. Although the Chargers have no home field, really- so there's debate as to whether that would have mattered. The real point is that the Chargers were a breath away from top seed in the AFC and carry in a better record (12-4) than not only the Ravens (10-6), but also the other home field wildcard team Texans (11-5) and the bye-week Patriots (11-5).

KEYS for LAC: The Chargers must hope for their stars to come through. I mentioned the defensive talent but Rivers has a good crew with him yet again, WR Keenan Allen is having another great year and RB Melvin Gordon has leveled up yet again into a top 5 RB both between the tackles and in the passing game.

KEYS for BAL : Rookie RB Leonard Fournette has clearly been nursing an injury and has not been receiving a full workload. Now is the time, because QB Blake Bortles is himself not an elite option and his WR corps is depleted due to injury. A great RB and a great Defense is still a certain recipe for advancement, Fournette needs to flash that early-season power.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears


Narratively, the Eagles enter the 2019 postseason the same way the did the 2018 postseason in which they brought home their first Super Bowl. As a talented underdog with QB Nick Foles instead of their star QB Carson Wentz. Unfortunately, the Eagles don't carry the same circumstances of home-field advantage and a bye week.

The Eagles have suffered through injuries to the secondary, and of course to their QB but still have a formidable 1-2 punch. They have DT Fletcher Cox, S Malcon Jenkins and a winning attitude on defense and C Jason Kelce, T Lane Johnson lead a talented, dynamic offensive line.

The Bears seemed an unlikely preseason team to take the NFC North with Rodgers, Cousins and Stafford headlining the pass-first NFL. They countered with their own headline, a blockbuster trade (Two 1st round picks) for perennial DPOY candidate LB Khalil Mack. Mack fit perfectly into a defense already stacked with rising stars LB Leonard Floyd, and DE Akiem Hicks and benefitting from the rise of S Eddie Jackson and top 10 rookie RB Roquan Smith. The result has been an instant and sudden rise to #1 defense for the Bears.

KEYS for PHI : How can it now be the return of Big Dick Nick Foles, playoff extraordinaire?

KEYS for CHI : As seems only appropriate for the Chicago Bears franchise, they enter the playoffs for the first time in 8 years with an elite defense and a QB who must not lose the game for them. QB Mitch Trubisky's (#2 overall pick in 2017) performance will determine the outcome, one way or the other.


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