Divisional Weekend 2019

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have had little playoff success in the Super Bowl era, they have a measly 4 playoff victories since their 1969 Super Bowl IV yet somehow they never seem to be lumped in that cursed category of the Bengals (5), Browns (4), or Lions (1). In the same timeframe since Super Bowl IV, the Carolina Panthers (9) and Jacksonville Jaguars (7) have more victories in 25 fewer years of existence. For the real hit, divisional rivals Broncos (23), Raiders (22), and even Chargers (11) out-pace the Chiefs significantly.

But damnit, if things just don't feel different with their star QB Patrick Mahomes in his 2nd year, first year of action. Mahomes is the 3rd player ever to throw 50 touchdowns (the other two being Tom Brady and Peyton Manning at their absolute peaks, for crying out loud). It's a perfect storm of a star, and All-Pro caliber play of big play extraordinaire WR Tyreek Hill, elite TE Travis Kelce and the "final form" of Coach Andy Reid's innovative personnel package offense.

Arrowhead will be rocking, but so will the Colts who have overcome starting 1-5 to the Final 8. There was once a day when QB Andrew Luck was the generational QB star to rival Peyton and Brady, it would be quite the statement to knock off the 50-TD kid the same way he last knocked the Chiefs out of the playoffs in 2014. The Colts O-line, and smart, efficient scheme was impressive- they still face an uphill battle.

KEYS for IND : Slowing down Mahomes and the Chiefs is about the best the Colts D can hope for, but an early lead and the same kind of drive-sustaining short passing game from Luck and Reich's efficient system would make it much easier.

KEYS for KC : The trio of D-linemen Chris Jones, Justin Houston and Dee Ford have been some of the very best despite the KC defense not impressing all season. With the home crowd behind them, they must get there, change the game.

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams

The Cowboys are burning bright with a defensive front that has some burgeoning stars on all levels. They also have a triplet-esque groups with QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliot and WR Amari Cooper. Meanwhile, the Rams have not impressed since the Week 11 Monday Night Football fireworks show with the Chiefs.

Even on this cross-section of Recency Bias Ave and Narrative Street, there is plenty of confidence that Coach Sean McVay will have his coming-out party after many of the 7 coaching vacancies in the last two weeks were filled by folks who have very similar resumes to Mr. McVay. The Rams will be looking for the offense to return to it's regular season glory, for RB Todd Gurley to return to form after missing Weeks 16 & 17, and for QB Jared Goff to resume the wide-open WRs Robert Woods or Brandin Cooks.

KEYS for DAL : RB Ezekiel Elliot is being utilized in all facets. This is not the time to shut down, it's time to continue to open up the Dallas offense. The Cowboys also have the personnel, especially at Linebacker, to perform what the Ram-killing scheme the Bears utilized in Week 16. To dare the team to run the ball.

KEYS for LAR : Besides the obvious need for the offense to be in top form we haven't seen in weeks, there is also the fact that the best player in the NFL resides on this team, DT Aaron Donald (and DT Ndamukong Suh as well) could also wreck the game from that side.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

The Los Angeles Chargers draw the "10am-game-for-a-west-coast-team" card again. In the past this has apparently affected teams, but the Chargers are a little different. The Chargers are ramblers, they have no home. The Stub Hub Arena in Los Angeles has been little more than a destination game for the opposing teams' fans.

The snow could be falling, the cold front is coming in, and yet the Chargers continue to move on. The defense has considerable talent from DEs Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa to All-Pro S Derwin James and CB Desmond King.

QB Tom Brady and Coach Bill Belichick are certainly the favorites, but New England has looked shakier on offense and defense combined than ever before.  Can the WRs and RBs for the Patriots win any match-ups? WR Julian Edelman is certainly a factor in the middle, but RBs Sony Michel, James White and WRs Chris Hogan, Coddarrale Patterson are not the elite match-up issues that they theoretically hand with TE Rob Gronkowski (fading skills) and WR Josh Gordon (suspended and banned from the NFL).

KEYS for LAC: The health of RB Melvin Gordon and WR Keenan Allen, big plays will be needed to take down the Patriots at home.

KEYS for NE: Tom Brady is 41, the question is simply will he be Brady? If so, the AFC playoffs have historically been very good to him.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

Nick Foles Magic- is it real? Foles has been the underdog in every one of his four playoff victories, at what point do we start to believe? Has a career ever had this trajectory before? Foles had big numbers in 2013, a slight drop-off in 2014, before failing miserably as a starting QB for the Rams. Having failed to meet the "franchise QB" expectations, he eventually settled into the classic journeyman role back with the Eagles. Except this time, he's back.

To be fair, this is more narrative than fact. Last year's insane performances in the NFCC and Super Bowl make his other two playoff wins appear to be more than they are. Foles was still an average QB in the wildcard round and should certainly be considered nowhere near the skill of Saints QB Drew Brees.

The Saints have the even attack with RBs Alvin Kamera and Mark Ingram, WR Michael Thomas, a good O-line and the impeccable Brees. The defense has also improved throughout the season, getting solid work from all three levels and will have the added benefit of a rocking Superdome.

KEYS for PHI : The Eagles' pass rush can be rendered meaningless by Brees' quick release as we saw in Week 11 when the Saints rolled over the Eagles 48-7. Philadelphia needs competence out of their banged-up secondary. Any level of coverage that can turn the focus towards the pass rush will be important.

KEYS for NO : The offense has been elite for 13 seasons, the difference for the Saints is always the defense. The Saints defense was touted as a comeback unit in 2017, but 2018 hasn't had the same accolades. They've slowly improved over the season, the talent is there. A Super Bowl run for the Saints likely lies in the question - will the defense make plays?

Sunday 1/6/19 (Wildcard)

Los Angeles Chargers, 23 Baltimore Ravens, 17

QB Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense battled valiantly against the Ravens staunch defense to the tune of five field goals and a hard-fought goal-line TD for RB Melvin Gordon, but this game played out on the other side of the ball.

The Chargers used their recent knowledge of the Ravens' new run-first offense to their advantage. As the first team to face QB Lamar Jackson twice, they had him entirely figured out. They brought in safeties to spy and fill the gaps for Jackson and the Ravens running game. S Derwin James, S Jahleel Addae and S Adrian Phillips essentially played the Linebacker position. The Chargers recognized everything the Ravens were doing, and it showed. The Ravens achieved their third 1st down with 8:04 in the 4th quarter after six straight 3-and-outs.

With 9:02 remaining in the game, QB Lamar Jackson had 25 passing yards. With a Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco sitting on the sideline, Baltimore called for their once favorite son.

Now, someone from the future may take a glance at the box score and think nothing of the 194 passing yards next to Lamar Jackson's name. To give credit where credit is due, the Ravens suddenly started moving the ball at this point. They needed some defensive drops and fortunate bounces to get there, but they ran two long TD drives for touchdowns to WR Michael Crabtree.

When Los Angeles went 3-and-out. The Ravens had a hope and prayer with 45 seconds, no timeouts to go 66 yards. As if part of an instructional video on ball security, Lamar Jackson finally lived out the consequences of poor ball security on a strip-sack forced by DE Uchenna Nwosu. Jackson tied for the league lead in fumbles (12) during the regular season despite starting only 7 games, and had fumbled twice already in this game. Amazingly, he only lost 4 out of 14 prior to this season-ending fumble.

MVP : DE Melvin Ingram was everywhere. He had 7 solo tackles, 2 sacks, forced a key fumble and received the game-deciding fumble.

Philadelphia Eagles, 16 Chicago Bears, 15

The Double Doink.

3 quarters of quality, hard-fought football largely emanating from the interior defensive lines, one could easily argue Eagles DT Fletcher Cox and Bears DT Akiem Hicks as the key factors in the game through 3 quarters. The score was 10-9.

The 4th quarter had a lot in store. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky had a wobbly day, he did not throw an interception but that was certainly more because of happenstance than skill. Suddenly, Trubisky got hot and drove 80 yards in under 3 minutes, receptions of 19, 34 and 22. The final to WR Allen Robinson (10 rec for 143 yards) to go up 15-10 with 9 minutes remaining in the game.

After a pair of punts and down by 5, Eagles QB Nick Foles drove the Eagles to the 2-yard line where the #1 Chicago defense put together 3/4ths of an epic goal-line stand. The oldest and smallest player (RB Darren Sproles) was stopped for no gain twice, followed by an incomplete pass to WR Alshon Jeffery. On 4th-and-2, the season on the line, Foles found WR Golden Tate sprinting to the right on the goal line for the 2-yard TD.

With 10 seconds remaining in the game, K Cody Parkey hit the upright (doink) for the 6th time this season, then the crossbar (doink) and to the turf below. The ball could have easily bounced off the crossbar and in, it amounts to a literal coin flip for an NFL playoff game or as play-by-play announced Al Michaels instantly coined:

The Double Doink.

MVP : A 60-yard drive and a 4th down go-ahead TD are small potatoes for the man who won the Super Bowl, QB Nick Foles. However, we must still remember that this is a team with a back-up QB who actively took the ball in the final seconds and threw a TD to win the game.

Saturday 1/5/19 (Wildcard)

Indianapolis Colts, 21 Houston Texans, 7

Andrew Luck and the efficient Colts offense put on a clinic to start the game with back-to-back 75 and 74 yard drives, eating almost the entire 1st quarter and putting 14 on the scoreboard (6-yard TD from Luck to TE Eric Ebron, and a 2-yard burst from RB Marlon Mack).

On the other hand, the Texans offense had the wobbly feel of a tight-rope walker trying to get in the groove. They appeared to get a big break when DE J.J Watt bull-rushed and tipped the ball for a Texans interception. Unfortunately, they fell yet again just one of four 3-and-outs in this game. The ball returned to Luck who added another TD drive, 65 yards ending in an 18-yard fake-post-to-the-corner-pylon strike to WR Dontrelle Inman.

This was pretty much the game. Because of QB DeShaun Watson's inaccuracy and the surging Colts running game, we devolved into 35 minutes of garbage time, live on ESPN. Watson did miss a throw at the end of the half, a 4th-1 end zone target to Hopkins, that could have brought the score to 21-7 before half. They did not manage that 7 until the 4th quarter, after four other 2nd half drives led to no points. The Colts defense put the pressure led by rookie LB Darius Leonard.

MVP : RB Marlon Mack looked impressive all game, ending with 148 rushing yards on 24 attempts. The exclamation point was on the final drive with 3:55 remaining in the game, the Texans using their 3 timeouts for one final gasp. Mack converted a hard-fought 3rd-and-2, jumped right up and rattled two more 1st downs (runs of 15 and 26 yards) to close the game without incident.

Dallas Cowboys, 24 Seattle Seahawks, 22

Both the Cowboys and Seahawks thumped their way back and forth, trading punts, and each achieving field goals in the 1st half. With 1:47 in the half, K Sebastian Janikowski added a second field goal for the Seahawks. The Cowboys, faced with a limited clock, handed the reigns to their efficient young QB who promptly drove them 65 yards for a 11-yard TD to rookie WR Michael Gallup. This was a lessen that Seahawks did not learn from until far too late.

In the 2nd half, both teams added touchdowns. Dallas led 17-14 and KR Tavon Austin returned a punt to the Seahawks 38 yard line, Prescott hit new weapon WR Amari Cooper for another 17-yards. With the Seahawks conservative run-first-no-matter-what gameplay and lack of a kicker (Janikowski injured on a long miss), the Cowboys appeared poised to go ahead a damning 10 points late in the 3rd quarter. The Ghost of the Legion Of Boom glory days returned, and LB K.J Wright intercepted Prescott in the end zone.

With 7 minutes remaining, down 3 points, the Seahawks went 3-and-out. Dallas' impressive defense has come on strong in the 2nd half of 2018, it is a formidable combo with the engine RB Ezekiel Elliot who led a 5+ minute time crunching drive culminating in Prescott's helicopter 3rd-and-14 conversation to the 1-yard line (topped with a 1-yard TD run one play later).

At this point the Seahawks finally declined to run the ball up the middle and handed the game to Russell Wilson. He drove them 65 yards in less than a minute for the TD and 2-point conversion. The onside kicker by All-Pro P Michael Dickson was just a pop-up to a downfield player, and Dallas receives their first playoff victory in the Dak/Zeke/Cooper era.

MVP : RB Ezekiel Elliot remains the engine of the Cowboys, 26 carries for 137 yards but also 5 targets, 4 receptions and 32 yards- something Dallas would have politely declined to do two years ago. QB Dak Prescott was fiery and looked crisp in his reads and decisions to run, but Elliot and the Dallas D are a match made in heaven.

Wildcard Weekend 2019

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

QB Andrew Luck and the Colts arrive into the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Luck played through a shoulder injury and a bad coach (Pagano) in 2015 and 2016. He did so much "playing through" that he missed the entirety of 2017. The rehabbed Luck and new coach (former Eagles O-Co Frank Reich) started 1-5 this season, but looked promising.

At that point, you could have been forgiven for concluding that the Colts would have one more year on before the Luck Redemption train arrived to the Playoff Station. However, to keep the metaphor going here, they loaded in the coal and got moving, 9-1 to end the season.

There's another element coming to fruition that we as NFL fans have also waited since 2014 to see.  DEs JaDeveon Clowney and J.J Watt are finally having healthy and elite season together. They have been a driving force, along with S Tyron Matheiu and CB Kareem Jackson to a Houston defense that put together their own winning streak (9 games) after starting 0-3.

The Texans are riding QB Deshaun Watson who has lived up to the hype of his 5-game, 19 touchdown flash as a rookie in 2017 (not to mention defeating Nick Saban juggernaut Alabama in 2016 National Championship). Now, he makes his debut in the NFL playoffs with little around him. He does have one of the top weapons in the NFL at least, the 115 catch, 0 drop, WR DeAndre Hopkins.

KEYS for IND : C Ryan Kelly has been a big part of the team's success both by pass-blocking skill and protection coordination. He's been in and out with a neck injury. Kelly has been cleared but will need to stay on field for Colts to contend.

KEYS for HOU : How to keep the Colts from honing in on Hopkins? Rookie WR Keke Coutee will be back after an entire season of hamstring issues. WR DeAndre Carter is there too. RB Lamar Miller has been inconsistent with the line.

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys

QB Russell Wilson has has 100 less pass attempts, rushed for 300 less yards, but thrown the same amount of touchdowns. The efficiency of the pass offense has been amazing, made possible by the dedication and success of the run game and RB Chris Carson (though RBs Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis have taken turns as well). The Seahawks in the playoffs, with a fresh new defense (except All-Pro LB Bobby Wagner) is a testament to Head Coach Pete Carrol and GM John Schneider.

The Cowboys offense has been predictable and a laughingstock for years, at some point the stubbornness wore off and the Cowboys began passing the ball to RB Ezekiel Elliot (2nd in RB targets this season) and mixing up their looks. The arrival of WR Amari Cooper in Week 9 (tased from OAK) is likely equally important, the field-tilting threat has saved QB Dak Prescott from what looked to potentially be a career-ending season if it continued on the futile path the Cowboys started.

To devote a whole paragraph to the Dallas offense really doesn't do justice to the real reason they are hosting a playoff game. Their defense has gelled, and the hallmark of every great defense is present: stars at every level. DE DeMarcus Lawrence has continued his elite pass-rush presence that he established in 2017. Rookie LBs Leighton Vander-Esch and Jalyn Smith have potentially made more of an impact on the 2018 season more than any other duo. CB Byron Jones has become a Top 5 CB.

KEYS for SEA : The Seahawks want to establish the run, slow the game down, and let their efficient QB make the play that wins the game.

KEYS for DAL : The Cowboys want to establish the run, slow the game down, and let their efficient QB make the play that wins the game.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens

A rematch of Week 16 in which the Ravens #1 defense pressed QB Phillip Rivers on 55% of passing plays. It was a wrench that the Chargers could not overcome. Meanwhile, the elite Chargers secondary (All-Pros CB Desmond King and rookie S Derwin James) and pass rushers (DE Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram) had a hard time finding their place against the run-first Ravens defense.

The Ravens will be rolling with rookie QB Lamar Jackson, making his 8th start. They've used designed Jackson runs and short option games with RBs Gus Edwards, Kenneth Dixon to control the clock and move down the field for the top special teams weapon in the NFL, K Justin Tucker.

The Chargers, as the #5 seed, had a legitimate shot at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs all the way up until the afternoon of Week 17. Although the Chargers have no home field, really- so there's debate as to whether that would have mattered. The real point is that the Chargers were a breath away from top seed in the AFC and carry in a better record (12-4) than not only the Ravens (10-6), but also the other home field wildcard team Texans (11-5) and the bye-week Patriots (11-5).

KEYS for LAC: The Chargers must hope for their stars to come through. I mentioned the defensive talent but Rivers has a good crew with him yet again, WR Keenan Allen is having another great year and RB Melvin Gordon has leveled up yet again into a top 5 RB both between the tackles and in the passing game.

KEYS for BAL : Rookie RB Leonard Fournette has clearly been nursing an injury and has not been receiving a full workload. Now is the time, because QB Blake Bortles is himself not an elite option and his WR corps is depleted due to injury. A great RB and a great Defense is still a certain recipe for advancement, Fournette needs to flash that early-season power.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

Narratively, the Eagles enter the 2019 postseason the same way the did the 2018 postseason in which they brought home their first Super Bowl. As a talented underdog with QB Nick Foles instead of their star QB Carson Wentz. Unfortunately, the Eagles don't carry the same circumstances of home-field advantage and a bye week.

The Eagles have suffered through injuries to the secondary, and of course to their QB but still have a formidable 1-2 punch. They have DT Fletcher Cox, S Malcon Jenkins and a winning attitude on defense and C Jason Kelce, T Lane Johnson lead a talented, dynamic offensive line.

The Bears seemed an unlikely preseason team to take the NFC North with Rodgers, Cousins and Stafford headlining the pass-first NFL. They countered with their own headline, a blockbuster trade (Two 1st round picks) for perennial DPOY candidate LB Khalil Mack. Mack fit perfectly into a defense already stacked with rising stars LB Leonard Floyd, and DE Akiem Hicks and benefitting from the rise of S Eddie Jackson and top 10 rookie RB Roquan Smith. The result has been an instant and sudden rise to #1 defense for the Bears.

KEYS for PHI : How can it now be the return of Big Dick Nick Foles, playoff extraordinaire?

KEYS for CHI : As seems only appropriate for the Chicago Bears franchise, they enter the playoffs for the first time in 8 years with an elite defense and a QB who must not lose the game for them. QB Mitch Trubisky's (#2 overall pick in 2017) performance will determine the outcome, one way or the other.

Sunday 1/28/18 (AFC/NFC)

New England Patriots, 23 Jacksonville Jaguars, 20

In a playoff season with a healthy dose of one-sided blowouts, QB Matt Ryan and Falcons offense steam-rolled the Packers defens to the point of embarrassment. The Falcons offense drove for 500 yards and 7 touchdowns in little more than 3 quarters before the Falcons' back-ups came to mercifully kill off rest of the 4th quarter. It was not the classic shoot-out fans were hoping for. The Packers' D was pitiful, the Falcons' D was opportunistic, and the day turned to just a rolling celebration for the city of Atlanta and the final game in Georgia Dome.

So why wasn't this game close? Why couldn't Aaron Rodgers on one of the most statistically handsome stretches of his career, keep up? WR Jordy Nelson surprised by playing well through broken ribs, TE Jared Cook was dropping passes but that's nothing new. The Falcons put up one of the most historic offensive performances of all time- but historic postseason performances is Aaron Rogers' speciality.

What may be lost as time fades is that the Packers did move the ball through the same world-class Rodgers efficiency we have seen the last two weeks but unlike the Giants and Cowboys - the Falcons defense deserves the credit for not breaking. 3 of the first 4 drives ended in a missed field goal, an red zone and a red zone interception. DE Vic Beasley and the D-line were ferocious but most importantly Atlanta defense produced big plays at crucial times. With Atlanta scoring touchdowns the Packers needed points on every drive and the Falcons did not break in the red zone until the game was out of hand.

MVP : WR Julio Jones. The Falcons continue their swiss-army attack, but not many spread offenses have a Julio Jones. Ryan is routinely hitting 8-9 different receivers per game, an arsenal of running backs, tight ends, fullbacks... and one Julio. He torched the Packers for 9 catches for 180 yards including a powerful slant-turned 73 yard TD that showcased his elite speed, elite power and toughness battling through a foot injury. Julio's dominance is not required for the Falcons to win football games, but it is a nice tool for them to have.

Philadelphia Eagles, 38 Minnesota Vikings, 7

The Vikings began the first drive efficiently, a 9-play, 75 yard drive with only one 3rd down. RBs Latavius Murray and Jerrick McKinnon were productive and QB Case Keenum capped it with a 25-yard dart to TE Kyle Rudolph. The Eagles took over and punted. On the Vikings next drive, Keenum converted a 3rd-and-10 to last week's hero WR Stefon Diggs.

I write the beginning of the game in such detail because this is right before the point at which the game essentially concludes. Two plays later on 3rd and 8, QB Case Keenum was intercepted by CB Patrick Robinson who returned 50-yards for the TD to go 7-7, midway through the 1st quarter.

The Vikings would not score another point, and the party in Philadelphia had begun. Big plays piled on, 11 yard TD for RB LaGarrette Blount, 53-yard TD bomb to WR Alshon Jeffery, another 41-yard bomb to WR Torrey Smith.

Suffocating play by S Malcom Jenkins' secondary and pressure from the rotational pass-rush units (DE Derek Barnett, DE Chris Long) had the Vikings offense entirely giving up, the Keenum yardage in the box score largely came once the game was out of hand. There was a Theilan TD taken away by replay but this just never felt like a game once Philly, the town and the team, got going.

MVP: QB Nick Foles out of absolutely nowhere with a 352, 3 TD, 0 INT masterpiece against one of the most formidable defenses of the season. Foles himself said he was "speechless". Credit obviously must go to the O-Co Frank Reich, Coach Doug Pederson and the staff but this was still unbelievable. Foles was hitting every throw from the wide open to the sidelines, seams and flats. Maybe that 2013 season wasn't so flukey after all.

Championship Weekend 2018

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots

Standing between QB Tom Brady, Coach Bill Belihick and their 8th Super Bowl appearance are the Jaguars tenacious defensive superstars and the health of Tom Brady's hand. We won't know the extent of the injury because of the Patriots careful shroud of secrecy. Legitimate outcomes from this week's media coverage range from "actually serious and needing QB Brian Hoyer" to "not an issue in any way". Tune in!

QB Tom Brady and the Patriots are their usual blend of unheralded playmakers on offense (RB Dion Lewis, RB James White) and a disciplined but sometimes over-matched defense. Seven straight AFC Championships, wow. It goes without saying the Patriots have the edge of experience. The Jaguars will be the underdogs on the road but they come into the game with pure talent on defense in the secondary with CB A.J Bouye and rumors that perhaps CB Jalen Ramsey could cover the Patriots' All Pro TE Rob Gronkowski.

Do the Jaguars have any chance? I lean towards no. The Jaguars have the fresh name and faces but I feel it important to note that they are still only the 3rd-best defense left in the playoffs (Vikings/Eagles). The narrative is that this is Brady's biggest test in years. Is it though? This team just gave up 42 to the Steelers, and was roasted by the 49ers in December The 2017 Jaguars do not carry with them into the AFC Championship anything remotely resembling the 2015 Broncos or the 2013 Seahawks who were historically great all season. Rather, they have a chance similar to 2012 Ravens or the 2009 Saints, who were above-average defenses and became historic at the perfect time in the Championships and Super Bowl.

KEYS FOR JAX : I've been typing into the 'Keys For ___' section for years : generate pressure on Brady with the four down rushers. Why have Tom Brady and Co won so many Super Bowls if everyone knows this? Because it's easier said than done. Also, it's the weakness for every team. The real point of saying 'need pressure with front four' is to say 'don't try anything else'. There's no complex zone coverage or blitz scheme that will work - you have to do it the obvious way. To say the Jaguars have the personnel is an understatement- they have some of the top rushers in the league (DE Calais Campbell, DT Malick Jackson etc).

KEYS FOR NE : The game is in the hands of QB Tom Brady. Can he put up the Miracle Show points like the Steelers did? Or will he break the Jags' will on a few uptempo drives? The Patriot defense focus is on stopping the Jaguars formidable rushing dominance that they sparked in the 1st half of the Divisional round. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles

The NFC continues to be a see-saw of gritty defensive match-ups and high-flying shoot-outs. After the Rodgers/Ryan shoot out last year, we get two of the best defenses and supporting casts carrying backup QBs to within one game of the Super Bowl. It is important to distinguish that QB Case Keenum has been much more a part of the Vikings' success than Eagles QB Nick Foles has been to the Eagles. This is as unique of a Championship game as you could ask for. It reminds me more of a big College Bowl where the QBs are secondary plot lines to the massively talented overall rosters.

Coach Mike Zimmer's Vikings defense is the best in the league, S Harrison Smith is a maniac, CB Xavier Rhodes is elite, the LBs and D-line have incredible discipline and the speed to make any play in any spot. They have put up historic numbers with a low 3rd down conversion rate of 25.2 percent. I only bring that up to mention the last time that had a percentage that low- the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.

We have talked enough about Foles and the offense. We are ignoring why the Eagles have not faded into the night after the Wentz injury, the defense. While the Vikings have the defensive stars, the Eagles have the crowd noise (whether they be screaming from inside under-dog masks or not). S Malcom Jenkins controls a respectable secondary but the reason the Eagles are formidable is because they have a defensive line rotation around superstar DT Fletcher Cox that has provided the most relentless and frightening rush in the NFL this season with DEs Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Derrick Barnett and Chris Long rooting in and out and creating havoc from the outside. This is not even accounting for Cox and his fellow big men on the inside (DTs Timmy Jernigan and Beau Allen).

KEYS FOR MIN: The Vikings will again hope to the play-makers WRs Stefon Diggs, Adam Theilan or RB Jerrick McKinnon to help them against the equally productive Eagles. The Vikings O-line is vulnerable so sustaining drives against the pass rush of Philadelphia will be tough. Big plays will soothe that weakness, and the Vikings have the personnel to make that happen.

KEYS FOR PHI: Nick Files simply has to avoid a historically bad day. That seems like a low bar but against a defense so quick and so disciplined, Foles will need to either play better or Coach Doug Peterson must put the ball on the ground more often with RBs LaGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi.

Sunday 1/14/18 (Divisional)

Jacksonville Jaguars, 45 Pittsburgh Steelers, 42

The Jaguars looked like a seasoned cold-weather, northern juggernaut with big offensive-line packages and RB Leonard Fournette rolling. Three predominately rushing drives resulted in a commanding 21-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter. The Pittsburgh offense was the opposite, a frayed high-wire act who had gained only 1 first down with 1 INT to LB Myles Jack.

The thing about high-wire acts is that when they work, they astound! QB Ben Rothlisberger and his Miracle Show broke the shut-out with a dime TD into perfect coverage by CB A.J Bouye to the Amazing WR Antonio Brown. The Jaguars then punted. At 21-7, with the Steelers' offense awake, and Fournette now out with an ankle injury, viewers felt the inevitable Pittsburgh comeback on the horizon.

Bad Rothlisberger fumbled, recovered by Telvin Smith and returned for a TD. The 21-point Jacksonville lead was resorted! Then, Good Rothlisberger on 4th-and-11 with 32 seconds hit WR Martinis Bryant deep for a 36-yard over-the shoulder end zone strike. The 21-point lead erased. 28-14 and halftime.

Big Ben's Show took on the vicious Jacksonville defense, culminating in another high degree-of-difficulty 19-yard TD reception to RB Le'Veon Bell that any WR would envy. Now 28-21, viewers again resigned themselves to the inevitable Pittsburgh comeback.

The most surprising aspect of this game is not the magical Ben-to-Brown/Bell/Bryant moments but the Jaguars' offense and QB Blake Bortles continuing to drive and produce in the wild, terrible towel atmosphere with Fournette on one ankle  To start the 4th quarter, Bortles took his deep shot to WR Keelan Cole for 43 yards. Fournette then punched in the 35-21 TD.

Rothlisberger and Brown responded accordingly- with their own dramatic 43-yard TD on 4th-and-5 again with perfect blanket coverage by All-Pro CB A.J Bouye. 35-28. Yet still, Jacksonville simply drove the ball again. A 40-yard screen to RB T.J Yeldon and yet another red zone conversion this one the classic Bortles-to-FB Tommy Bohanon connection. 42-28. The ol' ringleader Rothlisberger still had another one in him, another high-wire drive with a TD to RB Le'Veon Bell with 2:27 remaining. 42-35. A back-and-forth classic, with no lead changes.

The difference in degree-of-difficulty for the offenses was plain to see. Rothlisberger was performing miracles against the speed and tenacity of Jacksonville, while Jacksonville had their way with a weak Pittsburgh D all day. Perhaps it was for this reason that Coach Mike Tomlin opted for the onside kick which led directly to a Jacksonville field goal that sealed the game.

MVP : RBs Leonard Fournette and T.J Yeldon combined to reap the rewards of a Jacksonville O-line that dominated Pittsburgh's front 7. Sustaining the Jacksonville drives was the key ingredient to staving of Big Ben's Miracle Show.

Minnesota Vikings, 29 New Orleans Saints, 24

The Vikings had a blueprint first half for how to "Defend The North" (Super Bowl 52 is in Minnesota this year). QB Case Keenum moved the ball well for 17 points, a pair of TDs for each of RBs Jerrick McKinnon and Latavius Murray. The Vikings defense was impenetrable, even for Drew Brees.

Saturday 1/13/18 (Divisional)

Philadelphia Eagles, 15 Atlanta Falcons, 10

How do you win a playoff game when you have to play a subpar back-up QB Nick Foles playing for your injured MVP candidate? The answer is simple - have his worst throws somehow turn out to be his best plays. A ridiculous duck of a deep bomb that resulted in 42-yard pass interference simply because the ball was so off-target. An incompetent over-throw bounce off a safety (who was rightly unprepared) into WR Torrey Smith in stride for a the biggest gain of the day. Whether it be a rabbit's foot or some other lucky charm, Foles may want to hang onto it.

RBs Jay Ajayi and LaGarrette Blount turned in solid 1st and 2nd half performances, respectively. The Eagles struggled to move the ball against the Falcons. Luckily, their defense highlighted by DT Fletcher Cox suffocated the shell of the Falcons. The Eagles' defense held the Falcons to a piddling 281 total yards, 4/13 on 3rd down.

QB Matt Ryan and his arsenal that got him named MVP in 2016 were on the field. Same names, but a drastic drop in productivity. When the Eagles kicked the 15-10 field goal with 5:57 remaining it was finally time to fuel up the Julio Express, they drove to the 2-yard line with 1 minute remaining, Julio Jones had 4 catches for 56 yards on the drive.

When it came to 4th down, Matt Ryan rolled to his right but the Eagles were all over Julio Jones. It was a curious play call to have only three receiving options (Jones, Sanu, and FB Derrick Coleman) because the Eagles were able to essentially double and triple team Sanu and Jones. The roll-out away from Coleman made him irrelevant. The perfect encapsulation of a poorly coordinated 2017 season by O-Co Steve Sarkisan.

MVP : Give the honor officially to K Jake Elliot? Why not? Even though he missed an XP, in a game of two offenses struggling, the Eagles converted every precious field goal attempt in a stadium known for swirling winds and grass conditions. Julio Jones really deserved the award but needed only to have made that final catch. He still finished with 100 yards and 2 prevented interceptions.

New England Patriots, 35 Tennessee Titans, 14

Commence boilerplate Patriot Divisional blowout paragraphs.

Tom Brady's 26th playoff win comes at the expense of the Tennessee Titans. The Patriots continue to roll through the AFC on their way to their 7th-straight AFC Championship. Not only is that a record but it's not even the most successful stretch of the Belichick/Brady regime unless they win two more games and tie their previous 3-Super Bowl stretch of 2001-2004. RB Dion Lewis had 141 yards and WR Danny Amendola took the role of patented patriot patriot performer with 11 receptions for 112 yards.

The Titans were fortunate to make this somewhat of a game in the first half. QB Marcus Mariota hit WR Corey Davis for his first career touchdown for a 7-0 lead. Ultimately this was just smoke and field goal mirrors. The Patriots scored 35 straight points until Corey Davis got his 2nd career touchdown in complete and total garbage time late in the 4th quarter.

Be it TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Chris Hogan, RB James White (with 2 TDs) the Patriots' offense was unpredictable. The defense, a liability at times this season, was effective- particularly CB Stephen Gillmore and S Devin McCourty shoring up the secondary.

Why can the AFC not muster up a challenging Divisional opponent for New England? In 7 years, the only competitive game was the 2014 Ravens.

MVP : QB Tom Brady surged back into form with 337 yards and 3 TDs in a game entirely controlled by the Patriot offense.

Divisional Weekend 2018

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles

What could have been. A battle between 2016 MVP Matt Ryan and what certainly would have been 2017 MVP Carson Wentz if he had not torn his ACL in Week 14 of his breakout season. Instead, the Falcons carry their flawed offense into Philadelphia's formidable roster without it's head.

The Eagles certainly earned their #1 seed and rolled to 13-3 this season, but with QB Nick Foles now at the helm instead of the breakout Wentz, excitement is muted. They still carry one of the top D-lines led by DE Fletcher Cox, a stable of decent passing game weapons headlined by WR Alshon Jeffery and TE Zach Ertz and a good O-line with an swiss-army selection of rushers in RBs LaGarrette Blount, Corey Clement and transplant RB Jay Ajayi (traded from Miami).

The Falcons greatest hope may actually lie with their defense which continues to perform decently under Coach Dan Quinn. While the Matt Ryan/Julio Jones offense continues to carry top-billing, residue from the amazing season and playoff run last season, the Falcons sure tackling helped them defeat one powerhouse offense already this postseason.

KEYS for ATL : RB Tevin Coleman is seeing an increase in snaps, he has looked sharp and the decreased usage seems to do wonders for DaVonta Freeman. In the pantheons of NFL RB duos, Coleman and Freeman continue to have a unique symbiotic relation where one back will take the brunt volume while the other steps in for a fury of success.

KEYS for PHI : The Eagles have to get pressure on Matt Ryan and make it count. Ryan was able to withstand the Rams' relentless rush, the Eagles will need to also get through and make it count with sacks, turnovers or other assorted big plays. Nick Foles is highly unlikely to defeat anyone without some big plays on defense.

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots

The Patriots are favored by 13.5. That should say enough about this battle in cold Foxborough. If the Titans have truly had something click - if a Mariota/Henry unlocking of Heisman magic has occurred - then this is the stage. The shakiness of the Titans' 1st half and even the lucky moments of the comeback against the Chiefs has not instilled confidence in anyone.

QB Tom Brady and Coach Bill Belichick are working to get to their 7th straight AFC Championship. That should say enough about the Patriots. This season they've continued to use a multi-headed RB monster of Dion Lewis, James White joined by Rex Burkhead. TE Rob Gronkowski and speedster WR Brandin Cooks give the offense a potent kick. While the offense has been better, there are two concerns. First, the defense has gone through stretches- whether through injury or not- in which they can legitimately be described as one of the worst in the NFL. Second, Tom Brady has not had an excellent December amid a mysterious Achilles injury

KEYS for TEN : RB Derrick Henry and the Tennessee O-line will need to take over the game. The Tennessee Titans have nothing to write home about on defense. The best defense in the Wildcard round was that Tennessee just kept the ball. If Henry and the O-line, Mariota's efficient conversions, can give the Titans an amazing time of possession advantage, than that is a script in which this pipe dream could be achieved.

KEYS for NE : The health of QB Tom Brady is obviously something that is crucial, but he may not need to be utilized. The Patriots defense cannot regress to it's form earlier in the season or in an injury-riddle patch this fall. A respectable performance is all that Belichick needs. I'd take those odds.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers

QB Ben Rothlisberger threw 5 interceptions to the teal and... (beige?) in Week 5. Although RB Le'Veon Bell has stated the Steelers perhaps looked past the Jaguars, the issue was primarily coaching. The Jaguars strength is pass defense, and the Steelers refused to do anything but pass. RB Leonard Fournette was a force in that game, 181 yards (a dramatic 90-yard clincher in the 4th).

It is that same elite running game/pass defense combo that the Jaguars are hoping gets hot here towards the Super Bowl. Just the fact that we are talking about the Jaguars and the Super Bowl is amazing. QB Blake Bortles may not have much going after an abysmal Wildcard, but the defense is red hot, ready to melt and mold some steel.

Do the Steelers have the best WR and RB in the league? Still yes. RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown had exactly the type of seasons you'd expect from two studs in their prime. Brown is dealing with a partially torn calf sustained against the Patriots in December. There has been awakening, rookie WR Juju Smith-Schuster has thrived all season in the gaps of a defense left by Bell and Brown. While it may seem easy to say or write that, many other ancillary Steelers weapons have not been able to do just that. 

KEYS for JAX: Swarming defense and elite running game, as stated above.

KEYS for PIT : Pittsburgh's trajectory over the past few seasons has been about overcoming New England in the twilight of Rothlisberger's career. The offensive weapons need to perform and stay healthy. The defense started the season as a strength and is verging on a liability after the injury to LB Ryan Shazier.

New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings

If the Ghost Of Brett Favre is going to haunt anything away from Green Bay and Lambeau field, it's a playoff matchup between the Saints and the Vikings. In the 2009 NFCC Favre threw an unfortunate interception to send the Vikings to the crushing NFCC defeat they seem to endure every decade (1987, 1998, 2009).

Can this be a season or unlikely redemption for Minnesota? The Vikings lost starting QB Sam Bradford in Week 2, and their high-performing rookie phenom RB Dalvin Cook in Week 4. Before the injuries, the Vikings looked unstoppable. In an unusual twist on the early QB/RB injuries to a contender plot, the Vikings just kept it going. QB Case Keenum, and the excellent duo WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilan have kept it rolling, especially at home the new Vikings stadium. The Vikings defense with S Harrison Smith, LB Anthony Barr and a packed stable of playmakers has been healthy, and elite.

The Saints come into town again carrying their HOF-level air attack with QB Drew Brees and WR Michael Thomas. They have spent the 7-8 years in between, languishing without a defense of a successful ground game. With RBs Alvin Kamera and Mark Ingram, and a sturdy O-line (though will be missing one of their starting guards) the rushing strength is back. With DE Cameron Jordan and a steady pass-rush that showed up in the Carolina Wildcard late, and CB Marshawn Lattimore leading a  much-improved secondary, the defense is finally not consensus #32 and the reward has been this rematch with Minnesota.

KEYS for NO : Time to get the running game going. There are no soft teams left to exploit, Kamera and Ingram will have to run over a physical, disciplined defense- that's the playoffs.

KEYS for MIN : Minnesota has been high-flying at home, Stefon Diggs, Adam Theilan and TE Kyle Rudolph have been masters of the Case Keenum Show. What's the main difference between Bradford and Keenum? Risk-taking. The worst thing the Vikings could do is try to bottle up Keenum into a conservative Bradford-esque approach. They have resisted it so far, but the Brett Favre ghost lingers. As difficult as it may feel- you've got to let Keenum channel his inner Fave, let it rip.

Sunday 1/7/18 (Wildcard)

Jacksonville Jaguars, 10 Buffalo Bills, 3

It was not pretty, but the Jaguars win their first playoff game in over a decade and the Bills fly out of Florida back to Buffalo with a playoff participant trophy for the first time in 17 years. QB Blake Bortles was only spared the worst QB performance of the weekend by his opponent, QB Tyrod Taylor who continued to look like he was being controlled by a new player to Madden, locked in and ready to run.

RB LeSean McCoy gave it his best go for the Bills but was ineffective against a swarming, fast, tenacious Jaguars defense. The Bills were able to maintain some semblance of offense in terms of yardage but looked out-matched once in range of scoring. The Jaguars victory was sealed with the game's only Touchdown the culmination of the Jaguars' 9-minute 3rd quarter drive, Bortles to TE Ben Koyack.

There should be concerns for the Jaguars offense going forward of course (2/12 on 3rd down) but the victory was long-deserved and the result of a well-disciplined and talented defense. The final last gasps of Buffalo to put together a drive in the 4th quarter were snuffed out on a frightened, wobbly duck from QB Nathan Peterman intercepted by the sleek, fast #20 jersey of CB Jalen Ramsey.

MVP : DT Malick Jackson and NT Marcell Daerus were on the TV screen a lot for big interior D-lineman, DE Calais Campbell as well. Stuffing the run, snuffing the screens, harassing Taylor's pretending to read the defense. The D-line played too well against a far too inferior of an opponent for the Jaguars to lose this game.

New Orleans Saints, 31 Carolina Panthers, 26

In case of emergency, break glass for Drew Brees. The Saints rode the power and quickness of their stellar RB duo Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamera to an NFC South title this season, but the Carolina Panthers anchored by LBs Luke Kuechly and the timeless Thomas Davis held the two backs who combined for 3000 total yards over the season were held to a 68 total yard pittance.

The Saints turned to the air and their future HOF Quarterback provided 349 yards and 2 TDs. Brees hit an 80-yard revenge bomb to former Panther WR Ten Ginn Jr and then capped a 2nd drive with a 9-yard dart to TE Josh Hill.

The Panthers made it a great game. After yet another Saints TD (this one a FB Zach Line dive) put them down 21-6 with 49 seconds left in the 2nd half, QB Cam Newton hit 3 passes for 35 yards and K Graham Gano hit a 58-yard field goal to make it 21-9. The Panthers started the next drive well and settled for a field goal again. 21-12. It was not until the 4th quarter than Newton began punching the ball in, a TD to TE Greg Olsen and a 56-yard diagonal spring by rookie RB Christian McCaffery with 4:20 remaining.

Coach Sean Payton risked it all by going for it on a 4th-and-2 at the 2-minute warning to attempt to put the game away. Brees was intercepted by CB Mike Adams (which actually worked as a short punt, at least). Cam Newton had his chance to shine and appeared he would, completing passes of 21 and 19 yards driving to the Saints 21 yard line with 41 seconds left.

For most of the 2010s decade, this has been the story for Drew Brees. A heroic performance wasted by the Saints' defense. This time, the Saints D-line pressed Newton to force an intentional grounding, and then a -17 yard sack on 4th-and-23. Victory for the Saints, the Superdome went wild.

MVP : QB Drew Brees. With his lowest statistics in 15 years, didn't you just know Brees would turn in something like this in the postseason? 23/33, 376 yards and 2 TDs.

Saturday 1/6/18 (Wildcard)

Tennessee Titans, 22 Kansas City Chiefs, 21

Andy Reid in the playoffs hasn't been a barrel of laughs for the big guy. It's almost too easy to say this game was a microcosm of the Chiefs' season- starting 5-0 and falling backwards into the playoffs. Up 21-3 at halftime, the injury to Travis Kelce was devastatingly unfortunate, but the restriction of RB Kareem Hunt (5 second half carries with an 18pt lead) was unforgivable. The Chiefs looked great on their first two TD drives- Kelce, Hunt and WR Tyreek Hill all involved and QB Alex Smith running the controlled dynamics, flummoxing the Titans. Just as the 5-0 start collapsed into doldrums mediocrity, so did the 21-3 lead in this game.

The bright red Arrowhead crowd was made witness to Titans QB Marcus Mariota and RB Derrick Henry keeping a steady Titans pace. I can't think of many other games where the losing team is the team that wore down the opposing defense, but Mariota/Henry and the Titans O-line did just that. As with any budding upset, there was a healthy heaping of luck. Mariota's first TD pass of the day was to himself a ricochet back to him for a pylon-diving six points. A wild end to a methodic 8-minute, 3rd quarter drive.

Derrick Henry started the 4th quarter with a statement 35 yard rushing TD and the Titans took the lead with a preseason hype special connection - Mariota to WR Eric Decker. In between the half and these 3 Titans touchdowns, the Chiefs offense was downright obsolete. They possesed the ball for less 10 minutes of the 2nd half.

MVP : RB Derrick Henry carried the load, showed great lateral quickness for a big man, and the deceptive speed with the long strides. 181 yards on 25 touches. While the twin-Heisman backfield both deserve credit for the victory, it was Henry who made the biggest leap forward. Titans fans already asking 'Demarrco who?'

Atlanta Falcons, 26 Los Angeles Rams, 13

The 2016 Falcons perhaps would have made this a legendary blowout, the 2017 Falcons kept it civil. QB Matt Ryan was under duress the entire game (DT Aaron Donald and Co. had him rolling and shifting) but it did not matter. The Falcons drove the ball into the red zone over and over again, but settled for field goals 4/6 times. RB DeVonta Freeman and WR Julio Jones registered the two touchdowns, respectively.

It was enough because Coach Dan Quinn has clearly groomed a disciplined and well-prepared defense. LB Deion Jones and CB Robert Alford were just two that were on display for expelmery tackling of the Rams' formidable weapons. RB Todd Gurley was taken down 1-on-1 in the open field on crucial 3rd downs, and WR Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp found little YAC.

The loss can't necessarily be placed on the young team behind QB Jared Goff not being ready for the big stage, as will be the story. The game would have been much closer if KR/PR Pharaoh Cooper held onto the ball with a fumble lost on a kickoff, and a fumble lost on a punt return. It was part of what contributed to the stunning time of possession different. Atlanta 38 minutes. Los Angeles 22 minutes (which includes a 19-play late 4th quarter drive already down 26-13).

MVP : QB Matt Ryan. I am sure they have stats for rating under pressure and metrics for how well Ryan did in the face of collapsing pockets. Just watching the game, it did not seem natural that the Falcons' were sustaining drives. It was Freeman, Coleman, Jones, Sanu- the old gang from the 2016 legendary offensive run but instead of wide open WRs and pretty plays, this looked hard- and Matt Ryan deserves the credit for pulling that off.

Wildcard Weekend 2018

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs wowed the NFL world in September and October with a little bit of everything. An old dog learning new tricks (QB Alex Smith throwing deep and often), a star rookie phenom racking up stats (RB Kareem Hunt and his seven 100 yard games to start the season) and the twin pillars of elite speed (WR Tyreek Hill) and power (TE Travis Kelce).

Then the losses game, a 6 out of 7 game losing lull before what Kansas City certainly hopes is a resurgence of their early season form backed them into the AFC West seed (thanks in large part to the collapse of Denver and Oakland). In his best moments, Coach Andy Reid has led an inspired and electric offense. In his worst, he has had his tight end throwing interceptions. What balance will be struck in the postseason?

The Titans meanwhile have one of the most predictable and boring offenses in the league despite their twin-Heisman backfield. The Titans do boast the former Oregon uptempo mastermind QB Marcus Mariota in his first playoff game and former Alabama ground-it-out punisher Alabama RB Derrick Henry (going solo with RB DeMarcco Murray likely out with a knee injury). Mariota and the Titans offense will have to look like a new team to defeat the Chiefs on Sunday, they certainly have the skill players for it and a defense that has been decent against the run, if not a bit vulnerable to the pass.

KEYS for TEN : Is there any chance at all for a deep Tennessee playoff run? Likely not. If it were to happen, I would be shocked it it wasn't due to an elevated sense of play from the stars on the O-line. There's been injuries, and predictability of the offense, but this is a talented group up front.

KEYS for KC : The return of the unpredictable, triple-option college-inspired electricity. Perhaps they put to much of it on tape but there's nothing to hold back in the playoffs. The talent in Kansas City is weighted on the offensive side of the ball, and they will need to get hot there to make a deep playoff run.

Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Rams

The Falcons have had an up-and-down season following their crushing loss after leading 28-3 in Super Bowl 51. QB Matt Ryan has not been the distribution wizard of targets to countless, endless weapons that he was when Kyle Shanahan was coordinator. 38 touchdowns in 2016, 20 touchdowns in 2017 tells you the story you need to know. The Falcons offense has sadly turned into a shell, a cover band, of their 2016 selves.  But the cast is the same RBs DeVonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are still a dynamic duo, WR Julio Jones is still an unspeakable elite talent, and ancillary WRs and TEs are still there to make plays.

And who has exploded into the elite offense in the NFC? QB Jared Goff, RB Todd Gurley and the 32nd-to-1st offense of the Los Angeles Rams. Coach Sean McVay deserves credit for creating breathing room and creativity to use Todd Gurley (who has a case for MVP this season) and the stable of solid playmakers on the outside WRs Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp.

KEYS for ATL : WR Julio Jones needs to be the target-monster he is born to be. There was a time when Jones was the thing keeping a defense honest while an elite offense happened in the spaces created. That time is over. It's time to feed the most talented player in this game.

KEYS for LAR : DT Aaron Donald is playing in his first playoff game. He has made an underground as the best defensive player in the league. Why is his name up there with the Vons and the Watts and the Shermans? Because he has not put his name in the postseason headlines. Donald faces a banged-up O-line for Atlanta, he must eat.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Can't the Jacksonville Jaguars just have a nice Cinderella story? In the last six seasons they have gone 22-74 and missed the playoffs for a full decade. Yet when they arrive at the ball, they find themselves overshadowed by the 17-year postseason-drought-breaking Buffalo Bills.

The Jaguars have thrived this year with an elite defensive line and secondary. They've become the most respected team in the AFC not from New England or Pittsburgh. While that does speak a bit to the doldrums of the AFC this season, it also is a testament to the cohesion of the young talent compiled in Jacksonville. CBs Jalen Ramsey and A.J Buoye have been the headliners, DTs Calais Campbell of Arizona fame and Malick Jackson of Denver fame have anchored the line but the takeaway from Jacksonville's team should not be their bigger names, it should be that they have astonishing depth, speed, and tenacity at all levels. This is the kind of thing that can carry a team.

Buffalo made the playoffs? Buffalo themselves didn't realize they were in the playoff hunt, benching QB Tyrod Taylor to see what they had in rookie QB Nathan Peterman who promptly threw 5 interceptions in November. The Bills have gutted it out with Buffalo grit, Whether they advance or not, they've done better than expected and the town of Buffalo can finally move past the Music City Miracle of 1999, or the 0-4 early 90s Super Bowls as the last "success" the team had. 

KEYS for BUF: RB LeSean McCoy is questionable and the most important piece of the entire team. The Bills run to set up the pass, so his status and ability to be his full self is all that Buffalo's hopes hinge on.

KEYS for JAX : Rookie RB Leonard Fournette has clearly been nursing an injury and has not been receiving a full workload. Now is the time, because QB Blake Bortles is himself not an elite option and his WR corps is depleted due to injury. A great RB and a great Defense is still a certain recipe for advancement, Fournette needs to flash that early-season power.

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints

QB Drew Brees has carried the Saints since the 2009 Super Bowl - he's routinely turned in his Marinoesque lines of 650+ attempts, 4900-5000 yards and 35-40 TDs for six seasons. It is come with limited playoff success (2-3 since Super Bowl)- an era of horrendous defense and limited run support. There is no doubt the era has ended. These new Saints boast an improved defense, and electric 1-2 punch in RBs Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamera both with 1500 yards from scrimmage this season.

For the Panthers, they have bounced back from the highs of 2015 and the lows of 2016. QB Cam Newton runs an offense that relies on his ability to make herculean efforts on the ground and long throws across the field. Even the addition of RB Christian McCaffery and his 108 targets have been more of a high-wire act than safety valve. The Panthers defense has remained solid throughout with LBs Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis still anchoring a disciplined team.

KEYS for CAR : As with everything the Panthers do, their game plan hinges on the performance of a one Cameron Newton. The stage is not too big, the skill is there, but the question is will it be enough? Even the steady Panthers D will not hold the Saints to nothing. TE Greg Olsen has been on-and-off with injuries this season and the Panthers have not moved the ball as well as they have in years past.

KEYS for NO : You simply cannot throw your way to a Super Bowl, we've seen record-breaking passing offenses fall time and time again (2011 Saints a great example). This year's Saints defense cannot turn back to their old ways, CB Marshon Lattimore has been a blue-chip addition and DE Cameron Jordan has made a name with 13 sacks. S Kenny Vaccaro and LB Manti Te'o are the solid pieces built in as well. That said, having Drew Brees as the back-up plan? Not bad.

SUPER BOWL 51

New England Patriots, 34 Atlanta Falcons, 28

For five decades across American backyards, high school football fields, outfields, parks, living rooms, everywhere- kids with footballs and imaginations have set the scene "(insert your name) has led a 20 point comeback, now it's overtime of the Super Bowl - this is it". It is the American Football dream, a major comeback in the Super Bowl. For 50 super bowls there have been many legendary and historic performances, suspenseful close games and nail-biting comeback attempts but there had been no significant 10+ point successful comebacks, no true movie magic moments or cinderella stories.

And for it to finally happen for a team winning their 5th Super Bowl in 16 years?

28-3 will go down as a restricted number sequence in Atlanta. That is the score the Falcons led by after a walk-in 6 yard TD reception by RB Tevin Coleman from red-hot NFL MVP QB Matt Ryan with 8:31 to play in the 3rd quarter. The big story was taking shape- the most impressive offensive playoff performance of all time- 3 games of scoring almost at will. At the point, the Falcons had spent 10+ playoff quarters scoring 98 points and dicing defenses for 1,203 yards. Tributes to Matt Ryan and his slew of weapons were writing themselves.

There was no room for error for QB Tom Brady and the Patriots and so... there were none. They responded to the 28-3 deficit with a crisp, efficient 13-play, 6-minute drive resulting in a RB James White touchdown. The Falcons went 3-and-out, a FG for the Pats, a forced fumble by LB D'Onta Hightower, a short field Brady-to-WR Danny Amendola TD and suddenly the Patriots were only down 20-28 with 6 minutes to play in the 2017 NFL Season.

This was the test that the rolling Atlanta offense had not had. Starting from their own 10, they began to the move the ball for the first time since the Coleman TD. A 39-yard screen pass to RB DaVonta Freeman and one of the greatest catches is Super Bowl history a 27-yard high point, toe-tap sideline catch to WR Julio Jones at the 22 yard line. Now within field goal range, the Falcons went for the kill and were sacked for 12 yards, followed by a 10-yard holding call and had to punt.

Focus shifted back to Brady with 3:30 left, down by 8. He led a 10-play, 90-yard drive, highlighted by a circus gravity-defying floor catch by WR Julian Edelman (perhaps some of the 2007 helmet catch karma finally came around to New England?) The topper was a RB James White 1-yard TD and 2-pt conversion to Amendola to tie the game at 28 and create the first ever Super Bowl Overtime.

The Patriots won the toss, and the result seemed inevitable. In four minutes, Brady and the momentum-heavy Pats had driven to the 2-yard line and RB James White ran his 3rd touchdown of the game, capping the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history for the underdog comeback kids, the cinderella story... I refer of course to the 5-time Super Bowl Champions.

KEY PLAY : The Falcons offense had their heroic moment with Julio Jones' 27-yard epic catch to the 22. The following play ended up turning the game, a sack for a loss of 12 yards. The Falcons went into shotgun to stay aggressive but DT Tre Flowers bull rushed up the middle and interrupted a slow developing roll out. The holding call on the next play would play a -10 yard factor as well but these two plays combined to rob the Falcons of a game-sealing field goal and forced the punt. They then watched Brady drive two scoring drives from the sideline.

MVP: Popular aesthetic backlash is shifting towards RB James White because he scored 3 touchdowns and the media coverage focused so thoroughly and comprehensively on Brady. The true fact of the matter is that Tom Brady deserves this MVP award. Brady helmed three critical do-or-die TD drives worthy of the best of Joe Montana. The desperately calm 3rd quarter response drive to the Coleman touchdown, the 3 minute final drive of regulation and 2-pt conversion to tie and the OT drive to seal the game and keep the Falcons offense from touching the ball in OT. 241 yards of pressure cooker Super Bowl-deciding drives all handled by the 5-time Champion and deserving MVP QB Tom Brady.

Sunday 1/22/17 (AFC/NFC)

Atlanta Falcons, 44 Green Bay Packers, 21

Even by the standards of this year's postseason- rich with blowouts- QB Matt Ryan and Falcons offense steam-rolled the Packers defense to the point of embarrassment. The Falcons offense drove for 500 yards and 7 touchdowns in little more than 3 quarters before the Falcons' back-ups came to mercifully kill off rest of the 4th quarter. It was not the classic shoot-out fans were hoping for. The Packers' D was pitiful while the Falcons' D was opportunistic. The day pivoted into a nice rolling celebration for the city of Atlanta and the final game in Georgia Dome.

So why wasn't this game close? Why couldn't Aaron Rodgers -currently on one of the most statistically handsome stretches of his career- keep up? What may be lost as time fades is that the Packers did move the ball through the same world-class Rodgers efficiency we have seen the last two weeks but unlike the Giants and Cowboys, the Falcons had some key stops early. Including two third down stops that resulted in a missed field goal and a punt, as well as a fumble and an interception. The Falcons scored 24 points in that time.

MVP : WR Julio Jones. The Falcons continue their swiss-army attack, but not many spread offenses have a Julio Jones. Ryan is routinely hitting 8-9 different receivers per game, an arsenal of running backs, tight ends, fullbacks... and one Julio.

Julio torched the Packers for 9 catches for 180 yards including a powerful slant-turned 73 yard TD that showcased his elite speed, elite power and toughness battling through a foot injury. Julio's dominance is not required for the Falcons to win football games, but it is a nice tool for them to have.

NewEngland Patriots, 36 Pittsburgh Steelers, 17

After Atlanta's joyous can-you-believe it celebration, Americans tuned into to see New England's spoiled fans dust off their Tom Brady jerseys for the first game of the season that they have to care about: the routine AFC Championship. However, the Patriots handled the Steelers with ease completed a 4th full day of NFL playoffs that did not produce a genuinely competitive game. This was the 8th playoff game (out of 10) to feature a home team defeating an away team by 15+ points.

After only four plays the engine of Steel hope, RB Le'Veon Bell, was hurt. WR Antonio Brown was smothered. The pass rush on Brady nonexistent and we have seen the story enough to know what will happen. With no pass rush, Brady will find the soft spot, a role player to make look like a superstar. This time it was WR Chris Hogan (9 receptions, 180 yards) who was an invisible man to the Steelers secondary.

The Patriots offense was able to move the ball the entire game- WR Julian Edelman had over 100 yards, RB LaGarrette Blount had 16 carries, Tom Brady we never stressed for options. The pressure was on the Steelers offense to compete in a shoot-out with Bell was out with a groin injury. Although RB DeAngelo Williams played well, the Patriot resources were turned and focused on Antonio Brown. Rothlisberger's tired arm was forced to manage with the likes of Cobbie Hamilton, Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers- all of whom played okay, but not nearly enough to keep Bill Belichik and Tom Brady from a 7th Super Bowl.

MVP: QB Tom Brady is also going to his 7th Super Bowl and this time on the back of an epic 384 yard, 3 TD, 0 INT domination of a young and hungry Steeler defense. While he remains tied with Bradshaw and Montana with 4 Super Bowl wins, he has earned almost twice as many appearances as both of them across a much wider range (2002-2017).

Championship Weekend 2017

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

Load em' up boys because we has a shoot-out a-brewin'! This matchup between scorching offenses led by Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and Falcons QB Matt Ryan against already-lackluster defenses has a 61pt over/under in Vegas. The highest over/under in NFL playoff history.

QB Aaron Rodgers has the headlines, the highlight throws, the thrilling finishes and the video game stats. QB Matt Ryan meanwhile has led one of the Top 10 scoring offenses of All-Time (tied for 7th with the 2000 Rams, actually). The sports media has fallen all over themselves during this 8-game "run of the table" for Aaron Rodgers. We know the stats for Rodgers, this ongoing 8-0 masterpiece win-streak where he has accumulated 21 TDs, 2385 yards and only 1 INT. During this same span (but in one less game, the wildcard round) Matt Ryan has 17 TDs, 2,035 and only 2 INTs. Video game stats, both.

Rodgers will be without healthy versions of WR Jordy Nelson, breakout WR DeVante Adams but it just has not yet mattered who he is throwing to. He does not come up against an elite defense- the Falcons defense has struggled mightily to run the Seahawks' style without the Seahawks' players. The Packers' D is even worse- the secondary is woefully ill-equipped to handle the duality of RB Davonta Coleman and RB Tevin Coleman, the speed of WR Taylor Gabriel, much less the prototype WR Julio Jones, whose health is also in question.

KEYS FOR GB: Rodgers has only thrown 1 interception in 8 games. To beat Atlanta in the Georgia Dome against a Top 10 All-Time Offense without his top two targets this season that number will need to remain at 1 at the end of this 9th game of table-running. Rodgers simply needs to stay hot, and avoid giving the Falcons any additional drives.

KEYS FOR ATL: Matt Ryan's last NFC Championship appearance was forged around the talents of a trio of receiving targets (White, Gonzalez and a young Julio). This appearance in O-Co Kyle Shanahan's offense is built around spreading the ball around. Matty Ice simply needs to stay cold-calculating, utilizing every 2nd-string RB/WR or TE with four umlauts over his name available to him.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

Well, here we are in the un-changing AFC where 3 QBs (Tom Brady, Ben Rothlisberger and Peyton Manning) have appeared in 11/12 Super Bowls since 2002. Soon, it will be 12/13 because it's down to a Brady vs Rothlisberger AFC Championship. Interestingly, with these three QBs dominance of the AFC this will be their first playoff meeting since Ben's rookie year in 2004. 

QB Tom Brady and the Patriots are their usual blend of unheralded playmakers on offense (RB Dion Lewis, WR Julian Edelman) and a disciplined but sometimes over-matched defense. Six straight AFC Championships, wow. It goes without saying the Patriots have the edge of experience. The Steelers will be the underdogs on the road but they come into the game with two default All-Pros (RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown), a healthy offensive line and a defense molding together at the right time.

This is not the shoot-out of the GB/ATL game. There are pieces of both these defenses that when performing well can prove to be formidable. Eyes will be the performances of key players on both sides. For the Patriots, LB Dont'a Hightower has blossomed into a leader and the young playmaking secondary of CB Malcom Butler, CB Logan Ryan and S Devin McCourty all had an interception in the Divisional win over Houston. For the Steelers it always comes down to linebackers- LBs Ryan Shazier and Lawrence Timmons but especially the young potential of possible superstar LB Bud Dupree and grizzled vet LB James Harrison.

KEYS FOR PIT : I don't know if I want to sound like a broken record but I just will... generate pressure with the front four on Brady! Houston had alot of success rattling Brady, using their linebackers in creative ways to get pressure up the middle- Pittsburgh will be finding ways to do that as well. That combined with an NFL QB (which Houston lacked) remains the only formula to defeat Brady in the playoffs.

KEYS FOR NE : Coach Bill Belichick has made a career of taking away a teams' top threat- will it be Antonio Brown? Maybe. But my money is that Bill is focused on limiting the impact of the "Steel Cobra" Le'Veon Bell. The Steelers are not the high-flying offense you'd expect, if Bell cannot find room to accelerate, Pittsburgh will not thrive in pass-only mode.