This week, I have been annoyed at the national media preferring the Broncos in such large numbers. Normally, I might prefer the underdog role. I wasn't proclaiming any victories against San Francisco, because I believe that team could have beaten us. I don't see Denver on that same level, this Denver team should be the underdog.
Anybody close to the Seahawks with a sense of NFL perspective knows this is something special in Seattle. The media just loves offensive numbers, loves a fantasy football star, they love to select the Broncos in Madden on the Xbox and marvel at all the broken records, but this Denver offense is not the only element of this Super Bowl. The favorite in this game should be the Seahawks. And what follows are 8 reasons why.
#1 DEFENSIVE DEPTH - The statistics and accolades are there. The Seahawks defense has allowed the fewest points, the fewest yards, created the most turnovers, and has an All-Pro secondary. Still, the national media just can't quite put a finger on what makes this defense so much better than anything Denver has seen. They chalk it up to superstars Sherman, Thomas and Chancellor, throw in some lip service to a "pass rush" and call it good. They are missing the real greatness in this defense.
The real reason Seattle is so good on defense is roster depth. They boast four starting-caliber linebackers for three positions, a murderers row of 6 or 7 defensive run-stuffers and pass-rushers, and incredible depth at cornerback. All told, the Seahawks roster depth is astounding. These players are powerful, fast, strong and disciplined. The Seahawks enlist a solid 15 -16 starting-caliber, if not above-average, players rotating in to fit their strengths. As Marshawn Lynch said; "We got some dogs".
BONUS: You may be wondering why Seattle just so happens to have all these great defensive players. If they can do it, why don't other teams also just load up on defensive talent? The reason we have these players is #1) because they drafted exceptionally well and #2) because they can afford them. With superstars Sherman, Thomas III and Wilson all on rookie contracts, there has been plenty of money to keep the defensive roster over-stocked.
#2 DEFENSIVE SCHEME (OR LACK THEREOF) - Both the Broncos and Seahawks have made it to the Super Bowl not by out-smarting but by over-powering opponents. The Broncos become the highest scoring team in league history by forcing teams to pick their own poison. The receiving corps of Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker have simply been too much speed, power and talent for most teams to cover. Those defenses have to concede somewhere and no concession goes unpunished under the watchful eye of the great Peyton Manning. If a defense over-commits to the pass, Peyton checks to the running game which then finds conveniently little resistance.
This formula, the basis by which Denver wins games, is going to seriously be put to the test against the Seahawks defense, specifically the secondary. This is one of the only defenses equipped to manage Peyton's weapons without sacrificing the pass rush or players defending the run. Seattle does not rely on complex zones or blitz packages, they have the personnel to win individual battles and challenge receivers at the line of scrimmage. There are no fancy schemes for Peyton Manning to decode, the pressure will be on the receivers to dominate a secondary that, so far, has been the ones doing the dominating.
#3 BRONCOS OFFENSIVE LINE ISSUES - If Seattle's secondary is able to do what no other team has done and slow Peyton Manning's receivers down. We will be treated, on a national stage, to the actual state of the Denver Broncos' offensive line. Let's get one thing straight right away, the reason Peyton Manning isn't sacked that much is Peyton Manning. He makes the quickest decisions, has the fastest release, and is too efficient for most defenses to attack in the pass rush consistently.
But when this line is expected to hold that extra second or two, without their two best players (T Ryan Clady and C Dan Koppen are out for the year), things could get difficult. The Broncos are trotting out a 3rd-string center, a backup left tackle and struggling G Zane Beadles into the Super Bowl. They will be going against the massive Red Bryant, Brandon Mebane, and Clinton McDonald, against the relentless Chris Clemons, Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. These players have had to share statistics, tackles and sacks, so they haven't received their due attention. If Peyton requires extra time, we will see the extent of this mismatch.
#4 - PEYTON'S RECORDS MEAN NOTHING HERE - National media, I understand. I really do. I love offense. I root for it every year. I rooted for the late 90's Vikings, the Manning Colts and the high-flying versions of the Patriots.
The Broncos scored 606 points. A record. So they seem unbeatable, after all this is a game of points, is it not? I hear Denver personalities trot this doozey out all the time: "you aren't going to beat the best offense in the history in the league". Well, sorry guys. Good offense, even historically good offense, is routinely beaten in the playoffs, especially lately. Let's look at the top 5 ALL-TIME offenses, prior to this season.
The 2007 New England Patriots - Lost in Super Bowl 42, scoring only 17.
The 2011 Green Bay Packers - Did not win a playoff game, scoring only 20
The 1998 Minnesota Vikings - Lost NFC Championship, 20-27.
The 2012 New Orleans Saints - Lost Divisional Round, 32-36.
The 2011 New England Patriots - Lost AFC Champoionship, scoring only 13.
These are the previous "Best Offenses Ever", and they are 0-1 in the Super Bowl. Hardly a ringing endorsement. Statisictally, it may even be more of an inditement of those teams' defenses, rather than a statement of future Super Bowl Glory.
And If we expand our sample size to the Top 15 scoring offenses of all-time? 8 of the top 15 scoring offenses missed the Super Bowl entirely. Another six of them lost the Super Bowl. The only top offense to hoist the Lombardi trophy was #9 the 1999 St. Louis Rams. 1 out of 15. Those are different teams, different years, and different players, but my point is that you can't say having the most points in regular season history is any indicator of Super Bowl success. These historically high-scoring teams lose in the playoffs all the time.
#5 - PERCY HARVIN - Seattle spent the entire offseason implementing a playbook around their new superstar, WR Percy Harvin. Unfortunately for Seattle, Percy has seen only six quarters of football as a Seattle Seahawk. He will look to add four more in the Super Bowl.
Percy Harvin could very well rack up yardage and make the highlight-reels, it's possible. The sure thing though is that he will have to be accounted for. Put plainly, Denver doesn't have the personnel (only a few teams like San Francisco or Caroloina do) to focus on Percy Harvin and Marshawn Lynch. They require too much attention and something will have to give.
#6 - DENVER'S DEFENSE - Seattle has played 7 out of their last 8 games against top 10 defenses. The only non-top 10 was the formidable pass rush of the St. Louis Rams. Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and Pete Carroll would never admit it, but they must feel relieved to go into the biggest game in franchise history against a significantly lesser defense than they have seen in months.
One year ago, Denver's defense was a strength. Since then, they have lost their two best players, DE Elvis Dumervil to the Ravens and LB Von Miller to injury. They have also lost their two most crucial unsung heroes to injury in top CB Chris Harris and leading tackler LB Wesley Woodyard.
Through the injuries, Denver's defense has managed to stay tough against the run all season but has been atrocious against the pass. In the postseason they have drawn fortunate matchups against the 'run-the-ball-over-and-over-without-Ryan-Matthews' San Diego Chargers and the shadow of New England's seriously hobbled offense. These injuries are likely to catch up with them in the Super Bowl against Seattle's marquee rusher and improvisational quarterback.
#7 - THE NFC IS SO MUCH BETTER THAN AFC - I don't know how any honest soul could watch the AFC and NFC Championships back-to-back and think the AFC participant should be the favorite to win the Super Bowl. The AFC game was powderpuff football compared to the NFC game. San Francisco and Seattle played a much faster, infinitely more physical, and more disciplined game.
This point is less about the statistics and more about the "eyeball test". I can tell you what I saw when I re-watched the playoffs on Game Rewind, I saw San Francisco, Carolina, New Orleans and Seattle as the four fastest, strongest teams in the NFL. The speed, power and overall depth of rosters was overwhelming. To be fair, Denver was clearly the best team in the AFC. I still do not think they would defeat any of the four divisional NFC teams.
#8 - RUSSELL WILSON - Two months ago, Russell was in the conversation for MVP but he has become a handoff machine for a much more conservative Seahawk offense. This is the way Seattle chose to play, to rely on the run game and defense and put little pressure on their passing game. It has kept Seattle's pass protection issues out of sight against the vicious defenses they faced at the end of the season and into the postseason. Still, Seattle fans (and Chicago, Arizona and Atlanta fans too) should know what this guy can do.
Wilson is a 5'10" 3rd round draft pick in only his second year. I don't blame other fanbases for not seeing it, for not sensing what kind of spark this guy can provide. I didn't understand Ray Lewis, Maurice Jones-Drew, or even Tom Brady until it was national news so I give you a pass.
Wilson is calm, cool, and clutch. He will escape, he will dazzle, and a great performance out of Russell will be impossible for Denver to overcome. Sunday could very easily become the day Russell Wilson writes his name into the NFL history books.
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None of this is to say that football isn't football. Let's face it, a bounce here, a bounce there, a call or two in the wrong way and entire games can change. My main point here is that the Seahawks should be the favorites. Peyton Manning will be the best player in the game, but at least 15 of the top 20 are Seahawks.
They should be favored and I hope they prove it on Sunday. Go Hawks.
-miles.
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