Thursday, January 9, 2014

Divisional Weekend 2014

New Orleans Saints (12-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

The Saints march into Seattle for the 3rd time in three years. Previously, they have suffered through the "Beast Quake", a wild-card loss in 2012 and the Monday Night Massacre this season in week 13. QB Drew Brees was held to 147 yards, his first time under 200 yards since 2010 and lowest total since 2006.

Besides the previous two matchups, QB Russell Wilson, RB Marshawn Lynch, S Earl Thomas and CB Richard Sherman, a stormy forecast, and the 12th man in full form, the Saints pre-game woes are made worse by the impending return of WR Percy Harvin. This is an unprecedented nightmare for a team; a superstar returning for the playoffs after only one game with a new team.

That's the thing though, these are pre-game woes. Coach Sean Payton and the Saints will be heavy underdogs but they are coming off the first playoff road victory in franchise history, their backs are against the wall with a talented roster and a future Hall Of Fame rin Drew Brees.

KEYS FOR NO: The pundits are ablaze about the Saints defense and ability to run the ball in the Wildcard game but let's be real here, because this is a place to be real, Drew Brees will need a career-defining masterpiece to pull this one out.

KEYS FOR IND: Seattle will need to move the ball on offense. They have struggled to do so since November. Lynch and WR Golden Tate looked pretty worn down by the end of the season. The week of rest and addition of Harvin (even in a diversionary role) should help get the chains moving.

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) @ New England Patriots (12-4)

The bad blood between New England & Indianapolis didn't just magically vanish when Peyton took to the hills of Denver. The Colts and Patriots fans still bear the scars and grudges from 10+ years battling at the top of the AFC.

The rising stock of QB Andrew Luck makes this game interesting. QB Tom Brady won't be around to duel Luck for a decade, but for this game it is on. Luck is clearly the heir to Peyton, a once-in-a-generation prospect drafted by Indianapolis #1 overall. Like Peyton, he still goes into New England as an underdog no matter his previous heroic, awards or statistics. The ever-present reason for that; Tom Brady and Coach Bill Bellicheck.

There is more to the game than quarterbacks of course. Both teams have lost crucial offensive skill players and defensive cogs.

The Patriots have waited patiently while their young WRs acclimated to the NFL and their running backs have dealt with fumbling issues. Even after multiple key defensive injuries, New England holds the #2 seed in the AFC. It's just the Patriot way.

For the Colts, RB Trent Richardson has struggled after the blockbuster trade from the Browns in Week 3. LB Robert Mathis has enjoyed a late career surge.

KEYS FOR IND: The Patriots have a long history of taking away a team's top weapon. That weapon for the Colts is an emerging WR T.Y Hilton. The task will be to Luck and Coach Chuck Pagano to get the ball effectively to Hilton. If not, will another skill player step up?

KEYS FOR NE: RB Lagarette Blount and RB Shane Vareen need to keep that clock moving. The Colts D has already played poorly enough to eliminate themselves once in this playoffs, the Patriots want to keep that D reeling and on the field.

San Francisco 49ers (13-4) @ Carolina Panthers (12-4)

Two 'New Age' Quarterbacks. Young, fast, and sleek with rocket arms and massive fame. Two 'Old School' defenses with strong front sevens, vicious pass rushers and roaming linebackers.

While both teams boast strong running games and opportunistic passing games, these are two frightening defenses that had great seasons. For the Panthers, LB Luke Kuchely should be DPOY while the 49ers boast one of the top Linebacking cores ever; LB Patrick Willis, LB Navarro Bowman and LB Aldon Smith. On the line, while San Francisco has wiley old DT Justin Smith, Carolina has beasts up front DE Greg Hardy and DE Charles Johnson to supply the pressure and DT Star Lotuleli plus the middle. I list these names to illustrate the power that will be on the field Sunday, all these players are current, former or likely future All-Pros.

So what kind of game will this be? Will it be similar to the 10-9 thump-fest from Week 10? Or will these defenses and running games cancel each other out and put it on the arms of QB Cam Newton and QB Colin Kaepernick?

KEYS FOR SF: In week 10, Kaepernick was awful. This time he will have WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis and a hot hand. That passing game needs to get off the ground.

KEYS FOR CAR: Riverboat Ron, Coach Ron Rivera needs to stay aggressive. These 49ers have been clutch in their last three games (Falcons: pick-6 to win, Cardinals: FG drive in final 0:25 of game, and last week's games in Green Bay). The Panthers have no playoff experience, with Cam playing in his first playoff game, they don't want this coming down to the wire.

San Diego Chargers (10-7) @ Denver Broncos (13-3)

The Chargers trek up to the mountains after a conservative dismantling of Cincinnati last week. Fresh in their minds is their Week 15 win at Mile High Stadium in which QB Peyton Manning looked human and WR Keenan Allen lit up the Denver D and entered his name onto the Rookie of the Year ballots.

It has been well documented, the struggles of Peyton Manning in the playoffs. With every MVP award (he is a lock for his 5th MVP this season) the pressure mounts on him to improve  his 9-11 overall record in the playoffs, to add to his one title. Amazingly, after his 55-touchdown (NFL all-time record), 5,477 yard (NFL all-time record) season, it would be a legacy-defining loss to go one-and-out in the playoffs. It would justify the entire narrative. It is a strange place, this sports media world.

KEYS FOR SD: A replay of the Thursday Night game in Denver is unlikely, especially without Allen and RB Ryan Matthews at full health. I hate for every single 'key' to be the Quarterback play but… I'm sorry, it's true. QB Phillip Rivers has had a great season and will look to shock the world, or at least Denver.

KEYS FOR DEN: I would say the offense with the most points and yards in the history of the NFL can be relied on for some scores but to avoid the disaster that was last year's divisional loss, the defense will need to be decent. Not great, not championship-caliber even, just decent.

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